medical meaning for hypothesis

• TheFreeDictionary
• Word / Article
• Starts with
• Free toolbar & extensions
• Word of the Day
• Free content

hy·poth·e·sis

Significance .

• ad hoc hypothesis
• alpha error
• alternative hypothesis
• APUD hypothesis
• Avogadro law
• Avogadro number
• Avogadro, Amadeo
• background level
• Bayes theorem
• Bayesian hypothesis
• Beadle, George Wells
• bread mould
• capillarity
• chi squared test
• cohesion-tension hypothesis
• hypotensive
• hypotensive anesthesia
• hypothalamic amenorrhea
• hypothalamic dysfunction
• hypothalamic fever
• hypothalamic infundibulum
• hypothalamic obesity
• hypothalamic sulcus
• hypothalamic-pituitary axis
• hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis
• hypothalamocerebellar fibers
• hypothalamo-hypophyseal portal system
• hypothalamohypophysial
• hypothalamospinal fibers
• Hypothalamus
• hypothenar eminence
• hypothenar fascia
• hypothermal
• hypothermia
• hypothermia therapy
• hypothermia treatment
• hypothermic anesthesia
• hypothermic circulatory arrest
• hypothesis test
• hypothesis to test
• hypothetic mean organism
• hypothetic mean strain
• hypothetical mean organism
• hypothrombinemia
• hypothromboplastinemia
• hypothymism
• hypothyroid
• hypothyroid dwarf
• hypothyroidism
• hypothyroxinemia
• hypotonia-cystinuria syndrome
• Hypotonic Duodenography
• hypotonic labor
• hypotonic saline
• hypotonicity
• hypotoxicity
• hypotransferrinemia
• hypotrichiasis
• Hypothermia After Cardiac Arrest
• Hypothermia After Cardiac Arrest Registry
• hypothermic
• hypothermicly
• Hypothèse Extraterrestre
• Hypothesis Driven Lexical Adaptation
• Hypothesis test
• Hypothesis testing
• hypothesis testing sampling
• Hypothesis-Based Testing
• Hypothesis-Oriented Algorithm for Clinicians
• hypothesise
• hypothesised
• hypothesiser
• hypothesisers
• hypothesises
• Facebook Share

• Bipolar Disorder
• Therapy Center
• When To See a Therapist
• Types of Therapy
• Best Online Therapy
• Best Couples Therapy
• Best Family Therapy
• Managing Stress
• Sleep and Dreaming
• Understanding Emotions
• Self-Improvement
• Healthy Relationships
• Student Resources
• Personality Types
• Guided Meditations
• Verywell Mind Insights
• 2024 Verywell Mind 25
• Mental Health in the Classroom
• Editorial Process
• Meet Our Review Board
• Crisis Support

How to Write a Great Hypothesis

Hypothesis Definition, Format, Examples, and Tips

Verywell / Alex Dos Diaz

• The Scientific Method

Hypothesis Format

Falsifiability of a hypothesis.

• Operationalization

Hypothesis Types

Hypotheses examples.

• Collecting Data

A hypothesis is a tentative statement about the relationship between two or more variables. It is a specific, testable prediction about what you expect to happen in a study. It is a preliminary answer to your question that helps guide the research process.

Consider a study designed to examine the relationship between sleep deprivation and test performance. The hypothesis might be: "This study is designed to assess the hypothesis that sleep-deprived people will perform worse on a test than individuals who are not sleep-deprived."

At a Glance

A hypothesis is crucial to scientific research because it offers a clear direction for what the researchers are looking to find. This allows them to design experiments to test their predictions and add to our scientific knowledge about the world. This article explores how a hypothesis is used in psychology research, how to write a good hypothesis, and the different types of hypotheses you might use.

The Hypothesis in the Scientific Method

In the scientific method , whether it involves research in psychology, biology, or some other area, a hypothesis represents what the researchers think will happen in an experiment. The scientific method involves the following steps:

• Forming a question
• Performing background research
• Creating a hypothesis
• Designing an experiment
• Collecting data
• Analyzing the results
• Drawing conclusions
• Communicating the results

The hypothesis is a prediction, but it involves more than a guess. Most of the time, the hypothesis begins with a question which is then explored through background research. At this point, researchers then begin to develop a testable hypothesis.

Unless you are creating an exploratory study, your hypothesis should always explain what you  expect  to happen.

In a study exploring the effects of a particular drug, the hypothesis might be that researchers expect the drug to have some type of effect on the symptoms of a specific illness. In psychology, the hypothesis might focus on how a certain aspect of the environment might influence a particular behavior.

Remember, a hypothesis does not have to be correct. While the hypothesis predicts what the researchers expect to see, the goal of the research is to determine whether this guess is right or wrong. When conducting an experiment, researchers might explore numerous factors to determine which ones might contribute to the ultimate outcome.

In many cases, researchers may find that the results of an experiment  do not  support the original hypothesis. When writing up these results, the researchers might suggest other options that should be explored in future studies.

In many cases, researchers might draw a hypothesis from a specific theory or build on previous research. For example, prior research has shown that stress can impact the immune system. So a researcher might hypothesize: "People with high-stress levels will be more likely to contract a common cold after being exposed to the virus than people who have low-stress levels."

In other instances, researchers might look at commonly held beliefs or folk wisdom. "Birds of a feather flock together" is one example of folk adage that a psychologist might try to investigate. The researcher might pose a specific hypothesis that "People tend to select romantic partners who are similar to them in interests and educational level."

Elements of a Good Hypothesis

So how do you write a good hypothesis? When trying to come up with a hypothesis for your research or experiments, ask yourself the following questions:

• Is your hypothesis based on your research on a topic?
• Can your hypothesis be tested?
• Does your hypothesis include independent and dependent variables?

Before you come up with a specific hypothesis, spend some time doing background research. Once you have completed a literature review, start thinking about potential questions you still have. Pay attention to the discussion section in the  journal articles you read . Many authors will suggest questions that still need to be explored.

How to Formulate a Good Hypothesis

To form a hypothesis, you should take these steps:

• Collect as many observations about a topic or problem as you can.
• Evaluate these observations and look for possible causes of the problem.
• Create a list of possible explanations that you might want to explore.
• After you have developed some possible hypotheses, think of ways that you could confirm or disprove each hypothesis through experimentation. This is known as falsifiability.

In the scientific method ,  falsifiability is an important part of any valid hypothesis. In order to test a claim scientifically, it must be possible that the claim could be proven false.

Students sometimes confuse the idea of falsifiability with the idea that it means that something is false, which is not the case. What falsifiability means is that  if  something was false, then it is possible to demonstrate that it is false.

One of the hallmarks of pseudoscience is that it makes claims that cannot be refuted or proven false.

The Importance of Operational Definitions

A variable is a factor or element that can be changed and manipulated in ways that are observable and measurable. However, the researcher must also define how the variable will be manipulated and measured in the study.

Operational definitions are specific definitions for all relevant factors in a study. This process helps make vague or ambiguous concepts detailed and measurable.

For example, a researcher might operationally define the variable " test anxiety " as the results of a self-report measure of anxiety experienced during an exam. A "study habits" variable might be defined by the amount of studying that actually occurs as measured by time.

These precise descriptions are important because many things can be measured in various ways. Clearly defining these variables and how they are measured helps ensure that other researchers can replicate your results.

Replicability

One of the basic principles of any type of scientific research is that the results must be replicable.

Replication means repeating an experiment in the same way to produce the same results. By clearly detailing the specifics of how the variables were measured and manipulated, other researchers can better understand the results and repeat the study if needed.

Some variables are more difficult than others to define. For example, how would you operationally define a variable such as aggression ? For obvious ethical reasons, researchers cannot create a situation in which a person behaves aggressively toward others.

To measure this variable, the researcher must devise a measurement that assesses aggressive behavior without harming others. The researcher might utilize a simulated task to measure aggressiveness in this situation.

Hypothesis Checklist

• Does your hypothesis focus on something that you can actually test?
• Does your hypothesis include both an independent and dependent variable?
• Can you manipulate the variables?
• Can your hypothesis be tested without violating ethical standards?

The hypothesis you use will depend on what you are investigating and hoping to find. Some of the main types of hypotheses that you might use include:

• Simple hypothesis : This type of hypothesis suggests there is a relationship between one independent variable and one dependent variable.
• Complex hypothesis : This type suggests a relationship between three or more variables, such as two independent and dependent variables.
• Null hypothesis : This hypothesis suggests no relationship exists between two or more variables.
• Alternative hypothesis : This hypothesis states the opposite of the null hypothesis.
• Statistical hypothesis : This hypothesis uses statistical analysis to evaluate a representative population sample and then generalizes the findings to the larger group.
• Logical hypothesis : This hypothesis assumes a relationship between variables without collecting data or evidence.

A hypothesis often follows a basic format of "If {this happens} then {this will happen}." One way to structure your hypothesis is to describe what will happen to the  dependent variable  if you change the  independent variable .

The basic format might be: "If {these changes are made to a certain independent variable}, then we will observe {a change in a specific dependent variable}."

A few examples of simple hypotheses:

• "Students who eat breakfast will perform better on a math exam than students who do not eat breakfast."
• "Students who experience test anxiety before an English exam will get lower scores than students who do not experience test anxiety."​
• "Motorists who talk on the phone while driving will be more likely to make errors on a driving course than those who do not talk on the phone."
• "Children who receive a new reading intervention will have higher reading scores than students who do not receive the intervention."

Examples of a complex hypothesis include:

• "People with high-sugar diets and sedentary activity levels are more likely to develop depression."
• "Younger people who are regularly exposed to green, outdoor areas have better subjective well-being than older adults who have limited exposure to green spaces."

Examples of a null hypothesis include:

• "There is no difference in anxiety levels between people who take St. John's wort supplements and those who do not."
• "There is no difference in scores on a memory recall task between children and adults."
• "There is no difference in aggression levels between children who play first-person shooter games and those who do not."

Examples of an alternative hypothesis:

• "People who take St. John's wort supplements will have less anxiety than those who do not."
• "Adults will perform better on a memory task than children."
• "Children who play first-person shooter games will show higher levels of aggression than children who do not." 

Collecting Data on Your Hypothesis

Once a researcher has formed a testable hypothesis, the next step is to select a research design and start collecting data. The research method depends largely on exactly what they are studying. There are two basic types of research methods: descriptive research and experimental research.

Descriptive Research Methods

Descriptive research such as  case studies ,  naturalistic observations , and surveys are often used when  conducting an experiment is difficult or impossible. These methods are best used to describe different aspects of a behavior or psychological phenomenon.

Once a researcher has collected data using descriptive methods, a  correlational study  can examine how the variables are related. This research method might be used to investigate a hypothesis that is difficult to test experimentally.

Experimental Research Methods

Experimental methods  are used to demonstrate causal relationships between variables. In an experiment, the researcher systematically manipulates a variable of interest (known as the independent variable) and measures the effect on another variable (known as the dependent variable).

Unlike correlational studies, which can only be used to determine if there is a relationship between two variables, experimental methods can be used to determine the actual nature of the relationship—whether changes in one variable actually  cause  another to change.

The hypothesis is a critical part of any scientific exploration. It represents what researchers expect to find in a study or experiment. In situations where the hypothesis is unsupported by the research, the research still has value. Such research helps us better understand how different aspects of the natural world relate to one another. It also helps us develop new hypotheses that can then be tested in the future.

Thompson WH, Skau S. On the scope of scientific hypotheses .  R Soc Open Sci . 2023;10(8):230607. doi:10.1098/rsos.230607

Taran S, Adhikari NKJ, Fan E. Falsifiability in medicine: what clinicians can learn from Karl Popper [published correction appears in Intensive Care Med. 2021 Jun 17;:].  Intensive Care Med . 2021;47(9):1054-1056. doi:10.1007/s00134-021-06432-z

Eyler AA. Research Methods for Public Health . 1st ed. Springer Publishing Company; 2020. doi:10.1891/9780826182067.0004

Nosek BA, Errington TM. What is replication ?  PLoS Biol . 2020;18(3):e3000691. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3000691

Aggarwal R, Ranganathan P. Study designs: Part 2 - Descriptive studies .  Perspect Clin Res . 2019;10(1):34-36. doi:10.4103/picr.PICR_154_18

Nevid J. Psychology: Concepts and Applications. Wadworth, 2013.

By Kendra Cherry, MSEd Kendra Cherry, MS, is a psychosocial rehabilitation specialist, psychology educator, and author of the "Everything Psychology Book."

• More from M-W
• To save this word, you'll need to log in. Log In

Definition of hypothesis

Did you know.

The Difference Between Hypothesis and Theory

A hypothesis is an assumption, an idea that is proposed for the sake of argument so that it can be tested to see if it might be true.

In the scientific method, the hypothesis is constructed before any applicable research has been done, apart from a basic background review. You ask a question, read up on what has been studied before, and then form a hypothesis.

A hypothesis is usually tentative; it's an assumption or suggestion made strictly for the objective of being tested.

A theory , in contrast, is a principle that has been formed as an attempt to explain things that have already been substantiated by data. It is used in the names of a number of principles accepted in the scientific community, such as the Big Bang Theory . Because of the rigors of experimentation and control, it is understood to be more likely to be true than a hypothesis is.

In non-scientific use, however, hypothesis and theory are often used interchangeably to mean simply an idea, speculation, or hunch, with theory being the more common choice.

Since this casual use does away with the distinctions upheld by the scientific community, hypothesis and theory are prone to being wrongly interpreted even when they are encountered in scientific contexts—or at least, contexts that allude to scientific study without making the critical distinction that scientists employ when weighing hypotheses and theories.

The most common occurrence is when theory is interpreted—and sometimes even gleefully seized upon—to mean something having less truth value than other scientific principles. (The word law applies to principles so firmly established that they are almost never questioned, such as the law of gravity.)

This mistake is one of projection: since we use theory in general to mean something lightly speculated, then it's implied that scientists must be talking about the same level of uncertainty when they use theory to refer to their well-tested and reasoned principles.

The distinction has come to the forefront particularly on occasions when the content of science curricula in schools has been challenged—notably, when a school board in Georgia put stickers on textbooks stating that evolution was "a theory, not a fact, regarding the origin of living things." As Kenneth R. Miller, a cell biologist at Brown University, has said , a theory "doesn’t mean a hunch or a guess. A theory is a system of explanations that ties together a whole bunch of facts. It not only explains those facts, but predicts what you ought to find from other observations and experiments.”

While theories are never completely infallible, they form the basis of scientific reasoning because, as Miller said "to the best of our ability, we’ve tested them, and they’ve held up."

• proposition
• supposition

hypothesis , theory , law mean a formula derived by inference from scientific data that explains a principle operating in nature.

hypothesis implies insufficient evidence to provide more than a tentative explanation.

theory implies a greater range of evidence and greater likelihood of truth.

law implies a statement of order and relation in nature that has been found to be invariable under the same conditions.

Examples of hypothesis in a Sentence

These examples are programmatically compiled from various online sources to illustrate current usage of the word 'hypothesis.' Any opinions expressed in the examples do not represent those of Merriam-Webster or its editors. Send us feedback about these examples.

Word History

Greek, from hypotithenai to put under, suppose, from hypo- + tithenai to put — more at do

1641, in the meaning defined at sense 1a

Phrases Containing hypothesis

• counter - hypothesis
• nebular hypothesis
• null hypothesis
• planetesimal hypothesis
• Whorfian hypothesis

Articles Related to hypothesis

This is the Difference Between a...

This is the Difference Between a Hypothesis and a Theory

In scientific reasoning, they're two completely different things

Dictionary Entries Near hypothesis

hypothermia

hypothesize

Cite this Entry

“Hypothesis.” Merriam-Webster.com Dictionary , Merriam-Webster, https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hypothesis. Accessed 20 Jul. 2024.

Kids Definition

Kids definition of hypothesis, medical definition, medical definition of hypothesis, more from merriam-webster on hypothesis.

Nglish: Translation of hypothesis for Spanish Speakers

Britannica English: Translation of hypothesis for Arabic Speakers

Britannica.com: Encyclopedia article about hypothesis

Subscribe to America's largest dictionary and get thousands more definitions and advanced search—ad free!

Can you solve 4 words at once?

Word of the day.

See Definitions and Examples »

Get Word of the Day daily email!

Popular in Grammar & Usage

Plural and possessive names: a guide, commonly misspelled words, how to use em dashes (—), en dashes (–) , and hyphens (-), absent letters that are heard anyway, how to use accents and diacritical marks, popular in wordplay, it's a scorcher words for the summer heat, flower etymologies for your spring garden, 12 star wars words, 'swash', 'praya', and 12 more beachy words, 8 words for lesser-known musical instruments, games & quizzes.

An official website of the United States government

The .gov means it’s official. Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

The site is secure. The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

• Publications
• Account settings

Preview improvements coming to the PMC website in October 2024. Learn More or Try it out now .

• Advanced Search
• Journal List
• Indian J Crit Care Med
• v.23(Suppl 3); 2019 Sep

An Introduction to Statistics: Understanding Hypothesis Testing and Statistical Errors

Priya ranganathan.

1 Department of Anesthesiology, Critical Care and Pain, Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India

2 Department of Surgical Oncology, Tata Memorial Centre, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India

The second article in this series on biostatistics covers the concepts of sample, population, research hypotheses and statistical errors.

How to cite this article

Ranganathan P, Pramesh CS. An Introduction to Statistics: Understanding Hypothesis Testing and Statistical Errors. Indian J Crit Care Med 2019;23(Suppl 3):S230–S231.

Two papers quoted in this issue of the Indian Journal of Critical Care Medicine report. The results of studies aim to prove that a new intervention is better than (superior to) an existing treatment. In the ABLE study, the investigators wanted to show that transfusion of fresh red blood cells would be superior to standard-issue red cells in reducing 90-day mortality in ICU patients. 1 The PROPPR study was designed to prove that transfusion of a lower ratio of plasma and platelets to red cells would be superior to a higher ratio in decreasing 24-hour and 30-day mortality in critically ill patients. 2 These studies are known as superiority studies (as opposed to noninferiority or equivalence studies which will be discussed in a subsequent article).

SAMPLE VERSUS POPULATION

A sample represents a group of participants selected from the entire population. Since studies cannot be carried out on entire populations, researchers choose samples, which are representative of the population. This is similar to walking into a grocery store and examining a few grains of rice or wheat before purchasing an entire bag; we assume that the few grains that we select (the sample) are representative of the entire sack of grains (the population).

The results of the study are then extrapolated to generate inferences about the population. We do this using a process known as hypothesis testing. This means that the results of the study may not always be identical to the results we would expect to find in the population; i.e., there is the possibility that the study results may be erroneous.

HYPOTHESIS TESTING

A clinical trial begins with an assumption or belief, and then proceeds to either prove or disprove this assumption. In statistical terms, this belief or assumption is known as a hypothesis. Counterintuitively, what the researcher believes in (or is trying to prove) is called the “alternate” hypothesis, and the opposite is called the “null” hypothesis; every study has a null hypothesis and an alternate hypothesis. For superiority studies, the alternate hypothesis states that one treatment (usually the new or experimental treatment) is superior to the other; the null hypothesis states that there is no difference between the treatments (the treatments are equal). For example, in the ABLE study, we start by stating the null hypothesis—there is no difference in mortality between groups receiving fresh RBCs and standard-issue RBCs. We then state the alternate hypothesis—There is a difference between groups receiving fresh RBCs and standard-issue RBCs. It is important to note that we have stated that the groups are different, without specifying which group will be better than the other. This is known as a two-tailed hypothesis and it allows us to test for superiority on either side (using a two-sided test). This is because, when we start a study, we are not 100% certain that the new treatment can only be better than the standard treatment—it could be worse, and if it is so, the study should pick it up as well. One tailed hypothesis and one-sided statistical testing is done for non-inferiority studies, which will be discussed in a subsequent paper in this series.

STATISTICAL ERRORS

There are two possibilities to consider when interpreting the results of a superiority study. The first possibility is that there is truly no difference between the treatments but the study finds that they are different. This is called a Type-1 error or false-positive error or alpha error. This means falsely rejecting the null hypothesis.

The second possibility is that there is a difference between the treatments and the study does not pick up this difference. This is called a Type 2 error or false-negative error or beta error. This means falsely accepting the null hypothesis.

The power of the study is the ability to detect a difference between groups and is the converse of the beta error; i.e., power = 1-beta error. Alpha and beta errors are finalized when the protocol is written and form the basis for sample size calculation for the study. In an ideal world, we would not like any error in the results of our study; however, we would need to do the study in the entire population (infinite sample size) to be able to get a 0% alpha and beta error. These two errors enable us to do studies with realistic sample sizes, with the compromise that there is a small possibility that the results may not always reflect the truth. The basis for this will be discussed in a subsequent paper in this series dealing with sample size calculation.

Conventionally, type 1 or alpha error is set at 5%. This means, that at the end of the study, if there is a difference between groups, we want to be 95% certain that this is a true difference and allow only a 5% probability that this difference has occurred by chance (false positive). Type 2 or beta error is usually set between 10% and 20%; therefore, the power of the study is 90% or 80%. This means that if there is a difference between groups, we want to be 80% (or 90%) certain that the study will detect that difference. For example, in the ABLE study, sample size was calculated with a type 1 error of 5% (two-sided) and power of 90% (type 2 error of 10%) (1).

Table 1 gives a summary of the two types of statistical errors with an example

Statistical errors

In the next article in this series, we will look at the meaning and interpretation of ‘ p ’ value and confidence intervals for hypothesis testing.

Source of support: Nil

Conflict of interest: None

What Is a Hypothesis? (Science)

If...,Then...

Angela Lumsden/Getty Images

• Scientific Method
• Chemical Laws
• Periodic Table
• Projects & Experiments
• Biochemistry
• Physical Chemistry
• Medical Chemistry
• Chemistry In Everyday Life
• Famous Chemists
• Activities for Kids
• Abbreviations & Acronyms
• Weather & Climate
• Ph.D., Biomedical Sciences, University of Tennessee at Knoxville
• B.A., Physics and Mathematics, Hastings College

A hypothesis (plural hypotheses) is a proposed explanation for an observation. The definition depends on the subject.

In science, a hypothesis is part of the scientific method. It is a prediction or explanation that is tested by an experiment. Observations and experiments may disprove a scientific hypothesis, but can never entirely prove one.

In the study of logic, a hypothesis is an if-then proposition, typically written in the form, "If X , then Y ."

In common usage, a hypothesis is simply a proposed explanation or prediction, which may or may not be tested.

Writing a Hypothesis

Most scientific hypotheses are proposed in the if-then format because it's easy to design an experiment to see whether or not a cause and effect relationship exists between the independent variable and the dependent variable . The hypothesis is written as a prediction of the outcome of the experiment.

Null Hypothesis and Alternative Hypothesis

Statistically, it's easier to show there is no relationship between two variables than to support their connection. So, scientists often propose the null hypothesis . The null hypothesis assumes changing the independent variable will have no effect on the dependent variable.

In contrast, the alternative hypothesis suggests changing the independent variable will have an effect on the dependent variable. Designing an experiment to test this hypothesis can be trickier because there are many ways to state an alternative hypothesis.

For example, consider a possible relationship between getting a good night's sleep and getting good grades. The null hypothesis might be stated: "The number of hours of sleep students get is unrelated to their grades" or "There is no correlation between hours of sleep and grades."

An experiment to test this hypothesis might involve collecting data, recording average hours of sleep for each student and grades. If a student who gets eight hours of sleep generally does better than students who get four hours of sleep or 10 hours of sleep, the hypothesis might be rejected.

But the alternative hypothesis is harder to propose and test. The most general statement would be: "The amount of sleep students get affects their grades." The hypothesis might also be stated as "If you get more sleep, your grades will improve" or "Students who get nine hours of sleep have better grades than those who get more or less sleep."

In an experiment, you can collect the same data, but the statistical analysis is less likely to give you a high confidence limit.

Usually, a scientist starts out with the null hypothesis. From there, it may be possible to propose and test an alternative hypothesis, to narrow down the relationship between the variables.

Example of a Hypothesis

Examples of a hypothesis include:

• If you drop a rock and a feather, (then) they will fall at the same rate.
• Plants need sunlight in order to live. (if sunlight, then life)
• Eating sugar gives you energy. (if sugar, then energy)
• White, Jay D.  Research in Public Administration . Conn., 1998.
• Schick, Theodore, and Lewis Vaughn.  How to Think about Weird Things: Critical Thinking for a New Age . McGraw-Hill Higher Education, 2002.
• Null Hypothesis Examples
• Examples of Independent and Dependent Variables
• Difference Between Independent and Dependent Variables
• The Difference Between Control Group and Experimental Group
• What Is a Dependent Variable?
• What Is a Variable in Science?
• Null Hypothesis Definition and Examples
• Definition of a Hypothesis
• Example of a Chi-Square Goodness of Fit Test
• What Are the Elements of a Good Hypothesis?
• Six Steps of the Scientific Method
• Independent Variable Definition and Examples
• What Are Examples of a Hypothesis?
• Understanding Simple vs Controlled Experiments
• The Role of a Controlled Variable in an Experiment
• Scientific Method Flow Chart

Hypothesis n., plural: hypotheses [/haɪˈpɑːθəsɪs/] Definition: Testable scientific prediction

Table of Contents

What Is Hypothesis?

A scientific hypothesis is a foundational element of the scientific method . It’s a testable statement proposing a potential explanation for natural phenomena. The term hypothesis means “little theory” . A hypothesis is a short statement that can be tested and gives a possible reason for a phenomenon or a possible link between two variables . In the setting of scientific research, a hypothesis is a tentative explanation or statement that can be proven wrong and is used to guide experiments and empirical research.

It is an important part of the scientific method because it gives a basis for planning tests, gathering data, and judging evidence to see if it is true and could help us understand how natural things work. Several hypotheses can be tested in the real world, and the results of careful and systematic observation and analysis can be used to support, reject, or improve them.

Researchers and scientists often use the word hypothesis to refer to this educated guess . These hypotheses are firmly established based on scientific principles and the rigorous testing of new technology and experiments .

For example, in astrophysics, the Big Bang Theory is a working hypothesis that explains the origins of the universe and considers it as a natural phenomenon. It is among the most prominent scientific hypotheses in the field.

“The scientific method: steps, terms, and examples” by Scishow:

Biology definition: A hypothesis  is a supposition or tentative explanation for (a group of) phenomena, (a set of) facts, or a scientific inquiry that may be tested, verified or answered by further investigation or methodological experiment. It is like a scientific guess . It’s an idea or prediction that scientists make before they do experiments. They use it to guess what might happen and then test it to see if they were right. It’s like a smart guess that helps them learn new things. A scientific hypothesis that has been verified through scientific experiment and research may well be considered a scientific theory .

Etymology: The word “hypothesis” comes from the Greek word “hupothesis,” which means “a basis” or “a supposition.” It combines “hupo” (under) and “thesis” (placing). Synonym:   proposition; assumption; conjecture; postulate Compare:   theory See also: null hypothesis

Characteristics Of Hypothesis

A useful hypothesis must have the following qualities:

• It should never be written as a question.
• You should be able to test it in the real world to see if it’s right or wrong.
• It needs to be clear and exact.
• It should list the factors that will be used to figure out the relationship.
• It should only talk about one thing. You can make a theory in either a descriptive or form of relationship.
• It shouldn’t go against any natural rule that everyone knows is true. Verification will be done well with the tools and methods that are available.
• It should be written in as simple a way as possible so that everyone can understand it.
• It must explain what happened to make an answer necessary.
• It should be testable in a fair amount of time.
• It shouldn’t say different things.

Sources Of Hypothesis

Sources of hypothesis are:

• Patterns of similarity between the phenomenon under investigation and existing hypotheses.
• Insights derived from prior research, concurrent observations, and insights from opposing perspectives.
• The formulations are derived from accepted scientific theories and proposed by researchers.
• In research, it’s essential to consider hypothesis as different subject areas may require various hypotheses (plural form of hypothesis). Researchers also establish a significance level to determine the strength of evidence supporting a hypothesis.
• Individual cognitive processes also contribute to the formation of hypotheses.

One hypothesis is a tentative explanation for an observation or phenomenon. It is based on prior knowledge and understanding of the world, and it can be tested by gathering and analyzing data. Observed facts are the data that are collected to test a hypothesis. They can support or refute the hypothesis.

For example, the hypothesis that “eating more fruits and vegetables will improve your health” can be tested by gathering data on the health of people who eat different amounts of fruits and vegetables. If the people who eat more fruits and vegetables are healthier than those who eat less fruits and vegetables, then the hypothesis is supported.

Hypotheses are essential for scientific inquiry. They help scientists to focus their research, to design experiments, and to interpret their results. They are also essential for the development of scientific theories.

Types Of Hypothesis

In research, you typically encounter two types of hypothesis: the alternative hypothesis (which proposes a relationship between variables) and the null hypothesis (which suggests no relationship).

Simple Hypothesis

It illustrates the association between one dependent variable and one independent variable. For instance, if you consume more vegetables, you will lose weight more quickly. Here, increasing vegetable consumption is the independent variable, while weight loss is the dependent variable.

Complex Hypothesis

It exhibits the relationship between at least two dependent variables and at least two independent variables. Eating more vegetables and fruits results in weight loss, radiant skin, and a decreased risk of numerous diseases, including heart disease.

Directional Hypothesis

It shows that a researcher wants to reach a certain goal. The way the factors are related can also tell us about their nature. For example, four-year-old children who eat well over a time of five years have a higher IQ than children who don’t eat well. This shows what happened and how it happened.

Non-directional Hypothesis

When there is no theory involved, it is used. It is a statement that there is a connection between two variables, but it doesn’t say what that relationship is or which way it goes.

Null Hypothesis

It says something that goes against the theory. It’s a statement that says something is not true, and there is no link between the independent and dependent factors. “H 0 ” represents the null hypothesis.

Associative and Causal Hypothesis

When a change in one variable causes a change in the other variable, this is called the associative hypothesis . The causal hypothesis, on the other hand, says that there is a cause-and-effect relationship between two or more factors.

Examples Of Hypothesis

Examples of simple hypotheses:

• Students who consume breakfast before taking a math test will have a better overall performance than students who do not consume breakfast.
• Students who experience test anxiety before an English examination will get lower scores than students who do not experience test anxiety.
• Motorists who talk on the phone while driving will be more likely to make errors on a driving course than those who do not talk on the phone, is a statement that suggests that drivers who talk on the phone while driving are more likely to make mistakes.

Examples of a complex hypothesis:

• Individuals who consume a lot of sugar and don’t get much exercise are at an increased risk of developing depression.
• Younger people who are routinely exposed to green, outdoor areas have better subjective well-being than older adults who have limited exposure to green spaces, according to a new study.
• Increased levels of air pollution led to higher rates of respiratory illnesses, which in turn resulted in increased costs for healthcare for the affected communities.

Examples of Directional Hypothesis:

• The crop yield will go up a lot if the amount of fertilizer is increased.
• Patients who have surgery and are exposed to more stress will need more time to get better.
• Increasing the frequency of brand advertising on social media will lead to a significant increase in brand awareness among the target audience.

Examples of Non-Directional Hypothesis (or Two-Tailed Hypothesis):

• The test scores of two groups of students are very different from each other.
• There is a link between gender and being happy at work.
• There is a correlation between the amount of caffeine an individual consumes and the speed with which they react.

Examples of a null hypothesis:

• Children who receive a new reading intervention will have scores that are different than students who do not receive the intervention.
• The results of a memory recall test will not reveal any significant gap in performance between children and adults.
• There is not a significant relationship between the number of hours spent playing video games and academic performance.

Examples of Associative Hypothesis:

• There is a link between how many hours you spend studying and how well you do in school.
• Drinking sugary drinks is bad for your health as a whole.
• There is an association between socioeconomic status and access to quality healthcare services in urban neighborhoods.

Functions Of Hypothesis

The research issue can be understood better with the help of a hypothesis, which is why developing one is crucial. The following are some of the specific roles that a hypothesis plays: (Rashid, Apr 20, 2022)

• A hypothesis gives a study a point of concentration. It enlightens us as to the specific characteristics of a study subject we need to look into.
• It instructs us on what data to acquire as well as what data we should not collect, giving the study a focal point .
• The development of a hypothesis improves objectivity since it enables the establishment of a focal point.
• A hypothesis makes it possible for us to contribute to the development of the theory. Because of this, we are in a position to definitively determine what is true and what is untrue .

How will Hypothesis help in the Scientific Method?

• The scientific method begins with observation and inquiry about the natural world when formulating research questions. Researchers can refine their observations and queries into specific, testable research questions with the aid of hypothesis. They provide an investigation with a focused starting point.
• Hypothesis generate specific predictions regarding the expected outcomes of experiments or observations. These forecasts are founded on the researcher’s current knowledge of the subject. They elucidate what researchers anticipate observing if the hypothesis is true.
• Hypothesis direct the design of experiments and data collection techniques. Researchers can use them to determine which variables to measure or manipulate, which data to obtain, and how to conduct systematic and controlled research.
• Following the formulation of a hypothesis and the design of an experiment, researchers collect data through observation, measurement, or experimentation. The collected data is used to verify the hypothesis’s predictions.
• Hypothesis establish the criteria for evaluating experiment results. The observed data are compared to the predictions generated by the hypothesis. This analysis helps determine whether empirical evidence supports or refutes the hypothesis.
• The results of experiments or observations are used to derive conclusions regarding the hypothesis. If the data support the predictions, then the hypothesis is supported. If this is not the case, the hypothesis may be revised or rejected, leading to the formulation of new queries and hypothesis.
• The scientific approach is iterative, resulting in new hypothesis and research issues from previous trials. This cycle of hypothesis generation, testing, and refining drives scientific progress.

Importance Of Hypothesis

• Hypothesis are testable statements that enable scientists to determine if their predictions are accurate. This assessment is essential to the scientific method, which is based on empirical evidence.
• Hypothesis serve as the foundation for designing experiments or data collection techniques. They can be used by researchers to develop protocols and procedures that will produce meaningful results.
• Hypothesis hold scientists accountable for their assertions. They establish expectations for what the research should reveal and enable others to assess the validity of the findings.
• Hypothesis aid in identifying the most important variables of a study. The variables can then be measured, manipulated, or analyzed to determine their relationships.
• Hypothesis assist researchers in allocating their resources efficiently. They ensure that time, money, and effort are spent investigating specific concerns, as opposed to exploring random concepts.
• Testing hypothesis contribute to the scientific body of knowledge. Whether or not a hypothesis is supported, the results contribute to our understanding of a phenomenon.
• Hypothesis can result in the creation of theories. When supported by substantive evidence, hypothesis can serve as the foundation for larger theoretical frameworks that explain complex phenomena.
• Beyond scientific research, hypothesis play a role in the solution of problems in a variety of domains. They enable professionals to make educated assumptions about the causes of problems and to devise solutions.

Research Hypotheses: Did you know that a hypothesis refers to an educated guess or prediction about the outcome of a research study?

It’s like a roadmap guiding researchers towards their destination of knowledge. Just like a compass points north, a well-crafted hypothesis points the way to valuable discoveries in the world of science and inquiry.

Choose the best answer. 

Send Your Results (Optional)

Further Reading

• RNA-DNA World Hypothesis
• BYJU’S. (2023). Hypothesis. Retrieved 01 Septermber 2023, from https://byjus.com/physics/hypothesis/#sources-of-hypothesis
• Collegedunia. (2023). Hypothesis. Retrieved 1 September 2023, from https://collegedunia.com/exams/hypothesis-science-articleid-7026#d
• Hussain, D. J. (2022). Hypothesis. Retrieved 01 September 2023, from https://mmhapu.ac.in/doc/eContent/Management/JamesHusain/Research%20Hypothesis%20-Meaning,%20Nature%20&%20Importance-Characteristics%20of%20Good%20%20Hypothesis%20Sem2.pdf
• Media, D. (2023). Hypothesis in the Scientific Method. Retrieved 01 September 2023, from https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-a-hypothesis-2795239#toc-hypotheses-examples
• Rashid, M. H. A. (Apr 20, 2022). Research Methodology. Retrieved 01 September 2023, from https://limbd.org/hypothesis-definitions-functions-characteristics-types-errors-the-process-of-testing-a-hypothesis-hypotheses-in-qualitative-research/#:~:text=Functions%20of%20a%20Hypothesis%3A&text=Specifically%2C%20a%20hypothesis%20serves%20the,providing%20focus%20to%20the%20study.

©BiologyOnline.com. Content provided and moderated by Biology Online Editors.

Last updated on September 8th, 2023

You will also like...

Gene Action – Operon Hypothesis

Water in Plants

Growth and Plant Hormones

Sigmund Freud and Carl Gustav Jung

Population Growth and Survivorship

Related articles....

RNA-DNA World Hypothesis?

On Mate Selection Evolution: Are intelligent males more attractive?

Actions of Caffeine in the Brain with Special Reference to Factors That Contribute to Its Widespread Use

Dead Man Walking

• Editorial Team
• Exclusive Interviews
• In the News
• Newsletters
• Partners & Affiliates
• Advertise With Us

• हिन्दी
• français
• Español
• 中文

• Health Centers
• Information by Medical Specialty
• Health Websites
• Medical Education
• Medicine & Movies
• Health Videos
• Health Laws
• Buy & Sell
• Medindia on Mobile
• Anxiety & Depression
• Child Health
• Healthy Heart
• Health and Wellness
• Health Insurance
• Gastroenterology
• Health Tools
• Create Health Record
• Health Calculators
• Medical Equipment Store
• Health Websites - Categories
• AIDS and HIV
• Complementary Medicine
• Disease and disorder
• Infographics
• Know Your Body
• Endocrine System
• Digestive System
• Reproductive System
• Urinary System
• Health Tips
• Lifestyle and Wellness
• Nutrition Facts
• Beauty Tips
• Home Remedies
• Travel & Health
• Consumer Health
• Diet and Nutrition
• Senior Health
• Baked Products
• Breakfast Cereals
• Diet during Typhoid
• Health Benefits of Soybean
• Dark Circles
• Deep Sunken Eyes
• Eye Puffiness
• Anti-ageing Foods
• Best Foods That Aid Digestion
• Bone Strengthening Foods
• Obesity and Weight Loss
• Obesity and Carbohydrates
• Obesity and Malnutrition
• Acupuncture
• Aromatherapy
• Health News A-Z
• Health News Central
• Latest Health News
• Popular Health News
• Health Special Reports
• Interviews and In depth Reports
• Health Watch
• Health In Focus
• India Special
• Press Releases
• Latest Press Releases
• Press Releases A-Z
• Press Release Archive
• Submit Press Releases
• Writing a Press Release
• Health Topics
• Health Encyclopedia
• First Aid Guide
• Health Facts
• Health Quiz
• Blood Tests
• Health Care Glossary
• Insurance Glossary
• Medical Acronyms
• Medical Aphorism
• Medical Mnemonics
• Health Guide
• Health News
• Health News RSS
• Medical Lab Test
• Medical Humour
• Press Release
• Surgical Procedures
• Drug Information
• Drug Price List
• Drug Brands in India
• Drug Toxicity
• Drugs by Conditions
• Drug Interaction with Foods
• Therapeutic Drug Classification
• Search Info
• Doctor Homepage
• Hospital Homepage
• Indian Doctors
• Online Search
• Open Access Journals
• Universities In India
• Disease & Condition
• Diet & Nutrition
• Surgical Procedure
• Investigation and Procedure Articles
• Preventive Health
• Symptom Articles
• Drug Related Articles
• Health Screening Test
• Condition By Specialty
• Color Therapy
• Laboratory Test
• Medical Procedures
• Travel and Health
• Yoga and Lifestyle
• Health Statistics
• Web Stories
• Diabetes Risk Assessment Calculator
• Pediatric Calculators
• Height and Weight Calculator
• Health Risk Assessment Tools
• Clinical Tools
• Cardiac Risk Calculator
• Lifestyle Interactive Tools
• Miscellaneous Tools
• Women's Health Calculator
• Men's Health Calculators
• Nutrition Calculator
• Pharma Tools
• Health Clock
• Conversion Calculators
• Latest Health Calculators
• Popular Health Calculators
• Diabetes Tools
• Blood Sugar-Conversion
• Blood Sugar Chart
• Height and Weight for Children
• Development Milestone
• Immunisation
• Men's Health
• Check Your Prostate Gland
• Depression Calculator
• Preventive Health - Screening Tests
• Women's Health
• Multiple Pregnancy Calculator
• Ovulation Calculator
• Pregnancy Due Date Calculator
• Height Weight Tools
• Frame Size Calculator
• Ideal Baby Weight
• Ideal Body Weight
• Cardiac Tools
• Activity Calorie Calculator
• Blood Pressure Chart
• Cholesterol Risk Calculator
• Drugs Interaction Finder
• Drug Side Effects Calculator
• Travel Vaccination Calculator
• Wellness Interactive Tools
• Anxiety Screening Test
• Depression Screening Test
• Periodic Self Assessment
• Test Your Happiness Score
• Drugs by Condition
• Indian Drug Manufacturers
• Drugs - Side Effects
• How to Take Drugs
• Drugs by Specialty
• Health Conditions Due to Drugs
• FDA Labeling Changes
• Ayurveda Drug Manufacturers
• Banned Drugs in India
• Drug Policy
• Drug Price - Act
• Pharma Councils
• Associations
• Pharma Links
• Aceclofenac
• Albendazole
• Albuterol (Salbutamol)
• Abdominal Pain
• Drug Price List - Brand Names
• Manforce (100 mg)
• Drug Interaction with Food
• Amisulpride
• Drug Price List - Generic Names
• Acetaminophen
• Aclarubicin
• Drug Videos
• Drug Database
• Master Healthcare Directory
• Doctors Master Directory
• Doctor Directory
• Hospital Directory
• Chemist Directory
• Emergency Services
• Pharma Directory
• Surgical Suppliers
• NGO Directory
• International Hospital Directory
• Pincode Directory
• Ayuveda Colleges
• Dental Colleges
• Homepathy Colleges
• Medical Colleges
• Nursing Colleges
• Pharma Colleges
• Siddha Colleges
• Unani Colleges
• Book Teleconsultation
• Allopathy Doctors
• Allied Healthcare Members
• Doctors by City
• Search By Specialty
• Diagnostic Lab Directory
• Diagnostic Labs by City
• Hospitals by City
• Pharmacy/Chemist Directory
• Add Pharmacy
• Pharmacy/Chemist
• Pharmacies by City
• Medical Equipment Suppliers
• Add Medical Equipment Suppliers
• Medical Equipment Suppliers By City
• Pharma Directory by City
• Day and Night Pharmacy
• Home Care Nursing
• Trauma Care
• Oxygen Services
• Ministry of Health
• MCI Guidelines
• National Board of Examinations
• Surgical Training In UK
• CGFNS Centers
• USMLE Centers
• Distance Education Topics
• International Journals
• Indian Journals
• Homeopathy Colleges
• Ayurveda Colleges
• PG Education
• Bio Informatics
• Degree Courses
• Diploma Courses
• Surgical Training in UK
• Family Medicine
• Biomedical Ethics
• Classification of Burns
• Fever in Children
• Incision and Drainage of Abscess
• Low Back Pain
• Urinary Tract Infection
• Conferences
• Disease FAQs
• Journals Open Access
• Medical Dictionary
• Other Resources
• Education News
• Medical Electives
• Health Polls
• Medindia Specials
• Amazing Body Facts
• Health Survey
• World Health Days
• Consumer Protection Act
• Know your Body
• Medicine, Art & Literature
• Free Medical Downloads
• Advertise on Medindia
• Buy and Sell
• E-Health Records
• Free Home Pages
• Mini Health Check up
• Medical Jobs
• Health Acts in India
• Health Quotations
• Medical Conference
• Nobel Prize in Medicine
• Ribbon for a Cause
• Stamps on Doctors
• Health Insurance News
• Insurance Articles
• Insurance Companies- India
• Insurance Companies- United States
• Insurance Brokers List
• List of TPAs
• Other Health Resources
• Health Poll
• Medical Dictionary / Glossary

Hypothesis - Glossary

Medical Word - Hypothesis

Browse the medical dictionary alphabetically.

• Hu14.18-Interleukin-2 Fusion Protein
• Human chorionic gonadotropin
• Human insulin
• Human leukocyte antigen
• Human leukocyte antigen system (HLA) Ver 2
• Human Papillomavirus
• Human T-cell lymphotrophic virus
• Hyaline membrane disease
• Hybrid Ver 2
• Hydatidiform mole
• Hydrazine Sulfate
• Hydrocephalus
• Hydrocortisone
• Hydrogen Peroxide
• Hydrogenation
• Hydromorphone
• Hydronephrosis
• Hydrophilic
• Hydrophilicity
• Hydrophobia
• Hydrosalpinx
• Hydrotherapy
• Hydroxyurea
• Hymenoptera
• Hyper-Thyroidism
• Hyperactivity
• Hyperalimentation
• Hyperbaric Oxygen
• Hyperbilirubinemia
• Hypercalcaemia
• Hypercalcemia
• Hypercapnia
• Hypercholesterolemia
• Hyperemesis gravidarum
• Hyperextensibility, of joints
• Hyperfractionated radiation
• Hyperfractionation
• Hyperglycemia
• Hyperinsulinism
• HYPERKALAEMIA
• Hyperkalemic alkalosis
• Hyperlipemia, hyperlipidemia
• HYPERLIPIDAEMIA
• HYPERMAGNESIMIA
• Hyperosmolar coma
• Hyperparathyroidism
• Hyperphosphatemia
• Hyperplasia
• Hyperproliferative Ver 2
• Hypersensitivity
• Hypersomnia Ver 2
• Hypersomnolence
• Hypertelorism
• Hypertension
• Hyperthermia
• Hyperthermic Perfusion
• Hyperthyroidism
• Hypertrophic
• Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy
• Hypertrophy
• Hyperuricemia
• Hypervascular
• Hyperventilation
• Hypnogogic and hypnopompic hallucinations Ver 2
• Hypnotics Ver 2
• HYPOALBUMINAEMIA
• Hypocalcemia
• Hypochondriasis
• Hypocretin Ver 2
• Hypodermic Needle
• Hypoglycemia
• HYPOKALAEMIA
• Hypokalemia
• Hypopharynx
• Hypopnea Ver 2
• Hyporeflexia
• Hypotension
• Hypothalamus
• Hypothermia
• Hypothyroidism
• Hypoventilation
• Hypovolemic Ver 2
• Hypoxemia Ver 2
• Hyrdrocephalus
• Hysterectomy
• Hysterosalpingogram
• Hysteroscopy

What's New on Medindia

Quiz on larynx, new study reveals 40% of us cancer cases tied to lifestyle choices, nighttime nutrition: 7 surprising benefits of milk before sleep, glossary a-z, glossary search, quick links, insurance links, health insurance companies, stay connected.

• facebook Twitter Linked in Pinterest Instagram GoogleNews RSS

Follow Us On :

• Benefits of Registration
• Advertising Policy
• Partnership Inquiries
• Request to Use Medindia Content
• Refund & Cancellation Policy
• Unsubscribe

Disclaimer - All information and content on this site are for information and educational purposes only. The information should not be used for either diagnosis or treatment or both for any health related problem or disease. Always seek the advice of a qualified physician for medical diagnosis and treatment. Full Disclaimer

Advertise with us | Medindia Copyright | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use © All Rights Reserved 1997 - 2024

Clinical Decision-Making Strategies

• Hypothesis Generation |
• Hypothesis Testing |
• Probability Estimations and the Testing Threshold |
• Probability Estimations and the Treatment Threshold |

One of the most commonly used strategies for medical decision making mirrors the scientific method of hypothesis generation followed by hypothesis testing. Diagnostic hypotheses are accepted or rejected based on testing.

Hypothesis Generation

Hypothesis generation involves the identification of the main diagnostic possibilities (differential diagnosis) that might account for the patient’s clinical problem. The patient’s chief complaint (eg, chest pain) and basic demographic data (age, sex, race) are the starting points for the differential diagnosis, which is usually generated by pattern recognition. Each element on the list of possibilities is ideally assigned an estimated probability, or likelihood, of its being the correct diagnosis (pre-test probability—for an example, see table Hypothetical Differential Diagnosis and Pre-Test and Post-Test Probabilities ).

Clinicians often use vague terms such as “highly likely,” “improbable,” and “cannot rule out” to describe the likelihood of disease. Both clinicians and patients may misinterpret such semiquantitative terms; explicit statistical terminology should be used instead, if and when available. Mathematical computations assist clinical decision making and, even when exact numbers are unavailable, can better define clinical probabilities and narrow the list of hypothetical diseases further.

Probability and odds

The probability of a disease (or event) occurring in a patient whose clinical information is unknown is the frequency with which that disease or event occurs in a population. Probabilities range from 0.0 (impossible) to 1.0 (certain) and are often expressed as percentages (from 0 to 100). A disease that occurs in 2 of 10 patients has a probability of 2/10 (0.2 or 20%). Rounding very small probabilities to 0, thus excluding all possibility of disease (sometimes done in implicit clinical reasoning), can lead to erroneous conclusions when quantitative methods are used.

Odds represent the ratio of affected to unaffected patients (ie, the ratio of disease to no disease). Thus, a disease that occurs in 2 of 10 patients (probability of 2/10) has odds of 2/8 (0.25, often expressed as 1 to 4). Odds ( Ω ) and probabilities (p) can be converted one to the other, as in Ω = p/(1 − p) or p = Ω /(1 + Ω ).

Hypothesis Testing

The initial differential diagnosis based on chief complaint and demographics is often large, so the clinician first generates and filters the hypothetical possibilities by obtaining the detailed history and doing a directed physical examination to support or refute suspected diagnoses. For instance, in a patient with chest pain, a history of leg pain and a swollen, tender leg detected during examination increases the probability of pulmonary embolism.

When the history and physical examination form a recognizable pattern, a presumptive diagnosis is made. Diagnostic testing is used when uncertainties persist after the history and physical examination, particularly when the diseases remaining under consideration are serious or have dangerous or costly treatment. Test results further modify the probabilities of different diagnoses (post-test probability). For example, the table Hypothetical Differential Diagnosis and Pre-Test and Post-Test Probabilities shows how the additional findings that the hypothetical patient had leg pain and swelling and a normal ECG and chest x-ray modify diagnostic probabilities—the probability of acute coronary syndrome, dissecting aneurysm, and pneumothorax decreases, and the probability of pulmonary embolism increases. These changes in probability may lead to additional testing (in this example, probably chest CT angiography) that further modifies post-test probability (see table ) and, in some cases, confirms or refutes a diagnosis.

It may seem intuitive that the sum of probabilities of all diagnostic possibilities should equal nearly 100% and that a single diagnosis can be derived from a complex array of symptoms and signs. However, applying the principle that the best explanation for a complex situation involves a single cause (often referred to as Occam's razor) can lead clinicians astray. Rigid application of this principle discounts the possibility that a patient may have more than one active disease. For example, a dyspneic patient with known chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) may be presumed to be having an exacerbation of COPD but may also be suffering from a pulmonary embolism or heart failure.

Probability Estimations and the Testing Threshold

Even when diagnosis is uncertain, testing is not always useful. A test should be done only if its results will affect management. When disease pre-test probability is above a certain threshold, treatment is warranted ( treatment threshold ) and testing may not be indicated.

Below the treatment threshold, testing is indicated when a positive test result would raise the post-test probability above the treatment threshold. The lowest pre-test probability at which this can occur depends on test characteristics and is termed the testing threshold. The testing threshold is discussed in greater detail elsewhere.

Probability Estimations and the Treatment Threshold

The disease probability at and above which treatment is given and no further testing is warranted is termed the treatment threshold (TT).

The above hypothetical example of a patient with chest pain converged on a near-certain diagnosis (98% probability). When diagnosis of a disease is certain, the decision to treat is a straightforward determination of whether there is a benefit of treatment (compared with no treatment, and taking into account the potential adverse effects of treatment). When the diagnosis has some degree of uncertainty, as is almost always the case, the decision to treat also must balance the benefit of treating a sick person against the risk of erroneously treating a well person or a person with a different disorder; benefit and risk encompass financial, social, and medical consequences. This balance must take into account both the likelihood of disease and the magnitude of the benefit and risk. This balance determines where the clinician sets the treatment threshold.

Pearls & Pitfalls

Conceptually, if the benefit of treatment is very high and the risk is very low (as when giving a safe antibiotic to a patient with diabetes who possibly has a life-threatening infection), clinicians tend to accept high diagnostic uncertainty and might initiate treatment even if probability of infection is fairly low (eg, 30%—see figure Variation of treatment threshold (TT) with risk of treatment ). However, when the risk of treatment is very high (as when doing a pneumonectomy for possible lung cancer), clinicians want to be extremely sure of the diagnosis and might recommend treatment only when the probability of cancer is very high, perhaps > 95% (see figure ). Note that the treatment threshold does not necessarily correspond to the probability at which a disease might be considered confirmed or ruled in. It is simply the point at which the risk of not treating is greater than the risk of treating.

Variation of treatment threshold (TT) with risk of treatment

Quantitatively, the treatment threshold can be described as the point at which probability of disease (p) times benefit of treating a person with disease (B) equals probability of no disease (1 − p) times risk of treating a person without disease (R). Thus, at the treatment threshold

p × B = (1 − p) × R

Solving for p, this equation reduces to

p = R/(B + R)

From this equation, it is apparent that if B (benefit) and R (risk) are the same, the treatment threshold becomes 1/(1 + 1) = 0.5, which means that when the probability of disease is > 50%, clinicians would treat, and when probability is < 50%, clinicians would not treat.

For a clinical example, a patient with chest pain can be considered. How high should the clinical likelihood of acute myocardial infarction (MI) be before thrombolytic therapy should be given, assuming the only risk considered is short-term mortality? If it is postulated (for illustration) that mortality due to intracranial hemorrhage with thrombolytic therapy is 1%, then 1% is R, the fatality rate of mistakenly treating a patient who does not have an MI. If net mortality in patients with MI is decreased by 3% with thrombolytic therapy, then 3% is B. Then, treatment threshold is 1/(3 + 1), or 25%; thus, treatment should be given if the probability of acute MI is > 25%.

Alternatively, the treatment threshold equation can be rearranged to show that the treatment threshold is the point at which the odds of disease p/(1 − p) equal the risk:benefit ratio (R/B). The same numerical result is obtained as in the previously described example, with the treatment threshold occurring at the odds of the risk:benefit ratio (1/3); 1/3 odds corresponds to the previously obtained probability of 25% (see probability and odds ).

Limitations of quantitative decision methods

Quantitative clinical decision making seems precise, but because many elements in the calculations (eg, pre-test probability) are often imprecisely known (if they are known at all), this methodology is difficult to use in all but the most well-defined and studied clinical situations. In addition, the patient's philosophy regarding medical care (ie, tolerance of risk and uncertainty) also needs to be taken into account in a shared decision-making process. For instance, although clinical guidelines do not recommend starting a lifelong course of urate-lowering drugs after a first attack of gout, some patients prefer to begin such treatment immediately because they strongly want to avoid a second attack.

Copyright © 2024 Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA and its affiliates. All rights reserved.

• Cookie Preferences

• History & Society
• Science & Tech
• Biographies
• Animals & Nature
• Geography & Travel
• Arts & Culture
• Games & Quizzes
• On This Day
• One Good Fact
• New Articles
• Lifestyles & Social Issues
• Philosophy & Religion
• Politics, Law & Government
• World History
• Health & Medicine
• Browse Biographies
• Birds, Reptiles & Other Vertebrates
• Bugs, Mollusks & Other Invertebrates
• Environment
• Fossils & Geologic Time
• Entertainment & Pop Culture
• Sports & Recreation
• Visual Arts
• Demystified
• Image Galleries
• Infographics
• Top Questions
• Britannica Kids
• Saving Earth
• Space Next 50
• Student Center

• When did science begin?
• Where was science invented?

Our editors will review what you’ve submitted and determine whether to revise the article.

• Education Resources Information Center - Understanding Hypotheses, Predictions, Laws, and Theories
• Simply Psychology - Research Hypothesis: Definition, Types, & Examples
• Cornell University - The Learning Strategies Center - Hypothesis
• Washington State University - Developing a Hypothesis
• Verywell Mind - Forming a Good Hypothesis for Scientific Research
• BCCampus Publishing - Research Methods for the Social Sciences: An Introduction - Hypotheses

hypothesis , something supposed or taken for granted, with the object of following out its consequences (Greek hypothesis , “a putting under,” the Latin equivalent being suppositio ).

In planning a course of action, one may consider various alternatives , working out each in detail. Although the word hypothesis is not typically used in this case, the procedure is virtually the same as that of an investigator of crime considering various suspects. Different methods may be used for deciding what the various alternatives may be, but what is fundamental is the consideration of a supposal as if it were true, without actually accepting it as true. One of the earliest uses of the word in this sense was in geometry . It is described by Plato in the Meno .

The most important modern use of a hypothesis is in relation to scientific investigation . A scientist is not merely concerned to accumulate such facts as can be discovered by observation: linkages must be discovered to connect those facts. An initial puzzle or problem provides the impetus , but clues must be used to ascertain which facts will help yield a solution. The best guide is a tentative hypothesis, which fits within the existing body of doctrine. It is so framed that, with its help, deductions can be made that under certain factual conditions (“initial conditions”) certain other facts would be found if the hypothesis were correct.

The concepts involved in the hypothesis need not themselves refer to observable objects. However, the initial conditions should be able to be observed or to be produced experimentally, and the deduced facts should be able to be observed. William Harvey ’s research on circulation in animals demonstrates how greatly experimental observation can be helped by a fruitful hypothesis. While a hypothesis can be partially confirmed by showing that what is deduced from it with certain initial conditions is actually found under those conditions, it cannot be completely proved in this way. What would have to be shown is that no other hypothesis would serve. Hence, in assessing the soundness of a hypothesis, stress is laid on the range and variety of facts that can be brought under its scope. Again, it is important that it should be capable of being linked systematically with hypotheses which have been found fertile in other fields.

If the predictions derived from the hypothesis are not found to be true, the hypothesis may have to be given up or modified. The fault may lie, however, in some other principle forming part of the body of accepted doctrine which has been utilized in deducing consequences from the hypothesis. It may also lie in the fact that other conditions, hitherto unobserved, are present beside the initial conditions, affecting the result. Thus the hypothesis may be kept, pending further examination of facts or some remodeling of principles. A good illustration of this is to be found in the history of the corpuscular and the undulatory hypotheses about light .

• Daily Crossword
• Word Puzzle
• Word Finder
• Word of the Day
• Synonym of the Day
• Word of the Year
• Language stories
• All featured
• Gender and sexuality
• All pop culture
• Writing hub
• Grammar essentials
• Commonly confused
• All writing tips
• Pop culture
• Writing tips

Advertisement

[ hahy- poth - uh -sis , hi- ]

• a proposition, or set of propositions, set forth as an explanation for the occurrence of some specified group of phenomena, either asserted merely as a provisional conjecture to guide investigation working hypothesis or accepted as highly probable in the light of established facts.
• a proposition assumed as a premise in an argument.
• the antecedent of a conditional proposition.
• a mere assumption or guess.

/ haɪˈpɒθɪsɪs /

• a suggested explanation for a group of facts or phenomena, either accepted as a basis for further verification ( working hypothesis ) or accepted as likely to be true Compare theory
• an assumption used in an argument without its being endorsed; a supposition
• an unproved theory; a conjecture

/ hī-pŏth ′ ĭ-sĭs /

, Plural hypotheses hī-pŏth ′ ĭ-sēz′

• A statement that explains or makes generalizations about a set of facts or principles, usually forming a basis for possible experiments to confirm its viability.
• plur. hypotheses (heye- poth -uh-seez) In science, a statement of a possible explanation for some natural phenomenon. A hypothesis is tested by drawing conclusions from it; if observation and experimentation show a conclusion to be false, the hypothesis must be false. ( See scientific method and theory .)

Derived Forms

• hyˈpothesist , noun

Other Words From

• hy·pothe·sist noun
• counter·hy·pothe·sis noun plural counterhypotheses
• subhy·pothe·sis noun plural subhypotheses

Word History and Origins

Origin of hypothesis 1

Synonym Study

Example sentences.

Each one is a set of questions we’re fascinated by and hypotheses we’re testing.

Mousa’s research hinges on the “contact hypothesis,” the idea that positive interactions among rival group members can reduce prejudices.

Do more research on it, come up with a hypothesis as to why it underperforms, and try to improve it.

Now is the time to test your hypotheses to figure out what’s changing in your customers’ worlds, and address these topics directly.

Whether computing power alone is enough to fuel continued machine learning breakthroughs is a source of debate, but it seems clear we’ll be able to test the hypothesis.

Though researchers have struggled to understand exactly what contributes to this gender difference, Dr. Rohan has one hypothesis.

The leading hypothesis for the ultimate source of the Ebola virus, and where it retreats in between outbreaks, lies in bats.

In 1996, John Paul II called the Big Bang theory “more than a hypothesis.”

To be clear: There have been no double-blind or controlled studies that conclusively confirm this hair-loss hypothesis.

The bacteria-driven-ritual hypothesis ignores the huge diversity of reasons that could push someone to perform a religious ritual.

And remember it is by our hypothesis the best possible form and arrangement of that lesson.

Taken in connection with what we know of the nebulæ, the proof of Laplace's nebular hypothesis may fairly be regarded as complete.

What has become of the letter from M. de St. Mars, said to have been discovered some years ago, confirming this last hypothesis?

To admit that there had really been any communication between the dead man and the living one is also an hypothesis.

"I consider it highly probable," asserted Aunt Maria, forgetting her Scandinavian hypothesis.

Related Words

• explanation
• interpretation
• proposition
• supposition

More About Hypothesis

What is a hypothesis .

In science, a hypothesis is a statement or proposition that attempts to explain phenomena or facts. Hypotheses are often tested to see if they are accurate.

Crafting a useful hypothesis is one of the early steps in the scientific method , which is central to every field of scientific experimentation. A useful scientific hypothesis is based on current, accepted scientific knowledge and is testable.

Outside of science, the word hypothesis is often used more loosely to mean a guess or prediction.

Why is hypothesis important?

The first records of the term hypothesis come from around 1590. It comes from the Greek term hypóthesis , meaning “basis, supposition.”

Trustworthy science involves experiments and tests. In order to have an experiment, you need to test something. In science, that something is called a hypothesis . It is important to remember that, in science, a verified hypothesis is not actually confirmed to be an absolute truth. Instead, it is accepted to be accurate according to modern knowledge. Science always allows for the possibility that new information could disprove a widely accepted hypothesis .

Related to this, scientists will usually only propose a new hypothesis when new information is discovered because there is no reason to test something that is already accepted as scientifically accurate.

Did you know … ?

It can take a long time and even the discovery of new technology to confirm that a hypothesis is accurate. Physicist Albert Einstein ’s 1916 theory of relativity contained hypotheses about space and time that have only been confirmed recently, thanks to modern technology!

What are real-life examples of hypothesis ?

While in science, hypothesis has a narrow meaning, in general use its meaning is broader.

"This study confirms the hypothesis that individuals who have been infected with COVID-19 have persistent objectively measurable cognitive deficits." (N=81,337) Ventilation subgroup show 7-point reduction in IQ https://t.co/50xrNNHC5E — Claire Lehmann (@clairlemon) July 23, 2021

Not everyone drives. They can walk, cycle, catch a train, tram etc. That’s alternatives. What’s your alternative in your hypothesis? — Barry (@Bazzaboy1982) July 27, 2021

What other words are related to hypothesis ?

• scientific method
• scientific theory

Quiz yourself!

True or False?

In science, a hypothesis must be based on current scientific information and be testable.

Medical Terminology DB

Medical Terms & Definitions Glossary

• Medical Terms A to Z
• Cancer Dictionary
• Drug Dictionary
• Medical Conditions
• Statistical Terms
• Search Terms

Definition / meaning of hypothesis

A tentative proposal made to explain certain observations or facts that requires further investigation to be verified.

Was this definition helpful?

Listed under:, find more about 'hypothesis', leave a comment cancel reply.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed .

Share & Recommend Our Site!

Jobs in health care.

Return to top of page

Medical Terminology DB · Copyright © 2024 · Privacy · Terms of Use · Disclaimer · XML Sitemap

Have a language expert improve your writing

Run a free plagiarism check in 10 minutes, generate accurate citations for free.

• Knowledge Base

Hypothesis Testing | A Step-by-Step Guide with Easy Examples

Published on November 8, 2019 by Rebecca Bevans . Revised on June 22, 2023.

Hypothesis testing is a formal procedure for investigating our ideas about the world using statistics . It is most often used by scientists to test specific predictions, called hypotheses, that arise from theories.

There are 5 main steps in hypothesis testing:

• State your research hypothesis as a null hypothesis and alternate hypothesis (H o ) and (H a  or H 1 ).
• Collect data in a way designed to test the hypothesis.
• Perform an appropriate statistical test .
• Decide whether to reject or fail to reject your null hypothesis.
• Present the findings in your results and discussion section.

Though the specific details might vary, the procedure you will use when testing a hypothesis will always follow some version of these steps.

Table of contents

Step 1: state your null and alternate hypothesis, step 2: collect data, step 3: perform a statistical test, step 4: decide whether to reject or fail to reject your null hypothesis, step 5: present your findings, other interesting articles, frequently asked questions about hypothesis testing.

After developing your initial research hypothesis (the prediction that you want to investigate), it is important to restate it as a null (H o ) and alternate (H a ) hypothesis so that you can test it mathematically.

The alternate hypothesis is usually your initial hypothesis that predicts a relationship between variables. The null hypothesis is a prediction of no relationship between the variables you are interested in.

• H 0 : Men are, on average, not taller than women. H a : Men are, on average, taller than women.

Receive feedback on language, structure, and formatting

Professional editors proofread and edit your paper by focusing on:

• Academic style
• Vague sentences
• Style consistency

See an example

For a statistical test to be valid , it is important to perform sampling and collect data in a way that is designed to test your hypothesis. If your data are not representative, then you cannot make statistical inferences about the population you are interested in.

There are a variety of statistical tests available, but they are all based on the comparison of within-group variance (how spread out the data is within a category) versus between-group variance (how different the categories are from one another).

If the between-group variance is large enough that there is little or no overlap between groups, then your statistical test will reflect that by showing a low p -value . This means it is unlikely that the differences between these groups came about by chance.

Alternatively, if there is high within-group variance and low between-group variance, then your statistical test will reflect that with a high p -value. This means it is likely that any difference you measure between groups is due to chance.

Your choice of statistical test will be based on the type of variables and the level of measurement of your collected data .

• an estimate of the difference in average height between the two groups.
• a p -value showing how likely you are to see this difference if the null hypothesis of no difference is true.

Based on the outcome of your statistical test, you will have to decide whether to reject or fail to reject your null hypothesis.

In most cases you will use the p -value generated by your statistical test to guide your decision. And in most cases, your predetermined level of significance for rejecting the null hypothesis will be 0.05 – that is, when there is a less than 5% chance that you would see these results if the null hypothesis were true.

In some cases, researchers choose a more conservative level of significance, such as 0.01 (1%). This minimizes the risk of incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis ( Type I error ).

Prevent plagiarism. Run a free check.

The results of hypothesis testing will be presented in the results and discussion sections of your research paper , dissertation or thesis .

In the results section you should give a brief summary of the data and a summary of the results of your statistical test (for example, the estimated difference between group means and associated p -value). In the discussion , you can discuss whether your initial hypothesis was supported by your results or not.

In the formal language of hypothesis testing, we talk about rejecting or failing to reject the null hypothesis. You will probably be asked to do this in your statistics assignments.

However, when presenting research results in academic papers we rarely talk this way. Instead, we go back to our alternate hypothesis (in this case, the hypothesis that men are on average taller than women) and state whether the result of our test did or did not support the alternate hypothesis.

If your null hypothesis was rejected, this result is interpreted as “supported the alternate hypothesis.”

These are superficial differences; you can see that they mean the same thing.

You might notice that we don’t say that we reject or fail to reject the alternate hypothesis . This is because hypothesis testing is not designed to prove or disprove anything. It is only designed to test whether a pattern we measure could have arisen spuriously, or by chance.

If we reject the null hypothesis based on our research (i.e., we find that it is unlikely that the pattern arose by chance), then we can say our test lends support to our hypothesis . But if the pattern does not pass our decision rule, meaning that it could have arisen by chance, then we say the test is inconsistent with our hypothesis .

If you want to know more about statistics , methodology , or research bias , make sure to check out some of our other articles with explanations and examples.

• Normal distribution
• Descriptive statistics
• Measures of central tendency
• Correlation coefficient

Methodology

• Cluster sampling
• Stratified sampling
• Types of interviews
• Cohort study
• Thematic analysis

Research bias

• Implicit bias
• Cognitive bias
• Survivorship bias
• Availability heuristic
• Nonresponse bias
• Regression to the mean

Hypothesis testing is a formal procedure for investigating our ideas about the world using statistics. It is used by scientists to test specific predictions, called hypotheses , by calculating how likely it is that a pattern or relationship between variables could have arisen by chance.

A hypothesis states your predictions about what your research will find. It is a tentative answer to your research question that has not yet been tested. For some research projects, you might have to write several hypotheses that address different aspects of your research question.

A hypothesis is not just a guess — it should be based on existing theories and knowledge. It also has to be testable, which means you can support or refute it through scientific research methods (such as experiments, observations and statistical analysis of data).

Null and alternative hypotheses are used in statistical hypothesis testing . The null hypothesis of a test always predicts no effect or no relationship between variables, while the alternative hypothesis states your research prediction of an effect or relationship.

Cite this Scribbr article

If you want to cite this source, you can copy and paste the citation or click the “Cite this Scribbr article” button to automatically add the citation to our free Citation Generator.

Bevans, R. (2023, June 22). Hypothesis Testing | A Step-by-Step Guide with Easy Examples. Scribbr. Retrieved July 18, 2024, from https://www.scribbr.com/statistics/hypothesis-testing/

Is this article helpful?

Rebecca Bevans

Other students also liked, choosing the right statistical test | types & examples, understanding p values | definition and examples, what is your plagiarism score.

• Submit Manuscript
• CURRENT VOLUME: 11, 2024
• Volume 10, 2023
• Volume 9, 2022
• Volume 8, 2021
• Volume 7, 2020
• Volume 6, 2019
• Vol. 5, 2018
• Volume 4, 2017
• Volume 3, 2016
• Vol. 5, 2015
• Volume 2, 2015
• Volume 1, 2014
• Instructions for Authors
• Editorial Board
• Processing fee online payment
• Editorial Office
• Advertising Policy
• Privacy Policy

WELCOME TO Medical Science Hypotheses

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

• View all journals
• Explore content
• About the journal
• Publish with us
• Sign up for alerts
• Open access
• Published: 09 July 2024

Automating psychological hypothesis generation with AI: when large language models meet causal graph

• Song Tong   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-4183-8454 1 , 2 , 3 , 4   na1 ,
• Kai Mao 5   na1 ,
• Zhen Huang 2 ,
• Yukun Zhao 2 &
• Kaiping Peng 1 , 2 , 3 , 4  

Humanities and Social Sciences Communications volume  11 , Article number:  896 ( 2024 ) Cite this article

823 Accesses

4 Altmetric

Metrics details

• Science, technology and society

Leveraging the synergy between causal knowledge graphs and a large language model (LLM), our study introduces a groundbreaking approach for computational hypothesis generation in psychology. We analyzed 43,312 psychology articles using a LLM to extract causal relation pairs. This analysis produced a specialized causal graph for psychology. Applying link prediction algorithms, we generated 130 potential psychological hypotheses focusing on “well-being”, then compared them against research ideas conceived by doctoral scholars and those produced solely by the LLM. Interestingly, our combined approach of a LLM and causal graphs mirrored the expert-level insights in terms of novelty, clearly surpassing the LLM-only hypotheses ( t (59) = 3.34, p  = 0.007 and t (59) = 4.32, p  < 0.001, respectively). This alignment was further corroborated using deep semantic analysis. Our results show that combining LLM with machine learning techniques such as causal knowledge graphs can revolutionize automated discovery in psychology, extracting novel insights from the extensive literature. This work stands at the crossroads of psychology and artificial intelligence, championing a new enriched paradigm for data-driven hypothesis generation in psychological research.

Similar content being viewed by others

Augmenting interpretable models with large language models during training

ThoughtSource: A central hub for large language model reasoning data

Testing theory of mind in large language models and humans

Introduction.

In an age in which the confluence of artificial intelligence (AI) with various subjects profoundly shapes sectors ranging from academic research to commercial enterprises, dissecting the interplay of these disciplines becomes paramount (Williams et al., 2023 ). In particular, psychology, which serves as a nexus between the humanities and natural sciences, consistently endeavors to demystify the complex web of human behaviors and cognition (Hergenhahn and Henley, 2013 ). Its profound insights have significantly enriched academia, inspiring innovative applications in AI design. For example, AI models have been molded on hierarchical brain structures (Cichy et al., 2016 ) and human attention systems (Vaswani et al., 2017 ). Additionally, these AI models reciprocally offer a rejuvenated perspective, deepening our understanding from the foundational cognitive taxonomy to nuanced esthetic perceptions (Battleday et al., 2020 ; Tong et al., 2021 ). Nevertheless, the multifaceted domain of psychology, particularly social psychology, has exhibited a measured evolution compared to its tech-centric counterparts. This can be attributed to its enduring reliance on conventional theory-driven methodologies (Henrich et al., 2010 ; Shah et al., 2015 ), a characteristic that stands in stark contrast to the burgeoning paradigms of AI and data-centric research (Bechmann and Bowker, 2019 ; Wang et al., 2023 ).

In the journey of psychological research, each exploration originates from a spark of innovative thought. These research trajectories may arise from established theoretical frameworks, daily event insights, anomalies within data, or intersections of interdisciplinary discoveries (Jaccard and Jacoby, 2019 ). Hypothesis generation is pivotal in psychology (Koehler, 1994 ; McGuire, 1973 ), as it facilitates the exploration of multifaceted influencers of human attitudes, actions, and beliefs. The HyGene model (Thomas et al., 2008 ) elucidated the intricacies of hypothesis generation, encompassing the constraints of working memory and the interplay between ambient and semantic memories. Recently, causal graphs have provided psychology with a systematic framework that enables researchers to construct and simulate intricate systems for a holistic view of “bio-psycho-social” interactions (Borsboom et al., 2021 ; Crielaard et al., 2022 ). Yet, the labor-intensive nature of the methodology poses challenges, which requires multidisciplinary expertise in algorithmic development, exacerbating the complexities (Crielaard et al., 2022 ). Meanwhile, advancements in AI, exemplified by models such as the generative pretrained transformer (GPT), present new avenues for creativity and hypothesis generation (Wang et al., 2023 ).

Building on this, notably large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-3, GPT-4, and Claude-2, which demonstrate profound capabilities to comprehend and infer causality from natural language texts, a promising path has emerged to extract causal knowledge from vast textual data (Binz and Schulz, 2023 ; Gu et al., 2023 ). Exciting possibilities are seen in specific scenarios in which LLMs and causal graphs manifest complementary strengths (Pan et al., 2023 ). Their synergistic combination converges human analytical and systemic thinking, echoing the holistic versus analytic cognition delineated in social psychology (Nisbett et al., 2001 ). This amalgamation enables fine-grained semantic analysis and conceptual understanding via LLMs, while causal graphs offer a global perspective on causality, alleviating the interpretability challenges of AI (Pan et al., 2023 ). This integrated methodology efficiently counters the inherent limitations of working and semantic memories in hypothesis generation and, as previous academic endeavors indicate, has proven efficacious across disciplines. For example, a groundbreaking study in physics synthesized 750,000 physics publications, utilizing cutting-edge natural language processing to extract 6368 pivotal quantum physics concepts, culminating in a semantic network forecasting research trajectories (Krenn and Zeilinger, 2020 ). Additionally, by integrating knowledge-based causal graphs into the foundation of the LLM, the LLM’s capability for causative inference significantly improves (Kıcıman et al., 2023 ).

To this end, our study seeks to build a pioneering analytical framework, combining the semantic and conceptual extraction proficiency of LLMs with the systemic thinking of the causal graph, with the aim of crafting a comprehensive causal network of semantic concepts within psychology. We meticulously analyzed 43,312 psychological articles, devising an automated method to construct a causal graph, and systematically mining causative concepts and their interconnections. Specifically, the initial sifting and preparation of the data ensures a high-quality corpus, and is followed by employing advanced extraction techniques to identify standardized causal concepts. This results in a graph database that serves as a reservoir of causal knowledge. In conclusion, using node embedding and similarity-based link prediction, we unearthed potential causal relationships, and thus generated the corresponding hypotheses.

To gauge the pragmatic value of our network, we selected 130 hypotheses on “well-being” generated by our framework, comparing them with hypotheses crafted by novice experts (doctoral students in psychology) and the LLM models. The results are encouraging: Our algorithm matches the caliber of novice experts, outshining the hypotheses generated solely by the LLM models in novelty. Additionally, through deep semantic analysis, we demonstrated that our algorithm contains more profound conceptual incorporations and a broader semantic spectrum.

Our study advances the field of psychology in two significant ways. Firstly, it extracts invaluable causal knowledge from the literature and converts it to visual graphics. These aids can feed algorithms to help deduce more latent causal relations and guide models in generating a plethora of novel causal hypotheses. Secondly, our study furnishes novel tools and methodologies for causal analysis and scientific knowledge discovery, representing the seamless fusion of modern AI with traditional research methodologies. This integration serves as a bridge between conventional theory-driven methodologies in psychology and the emerging paradigms of data-centric research, thereby enriching our understanding of the factors influencing psychology, especially within the realm of social psychology.

Methodological framework for hypothesis generation

The proposed LLM-based causal graph (LLMCG) framework encompasses three steps: literature retrieval, causal pair extraction, and hypothesis generation, as illustrated in Fig. 1 . In the literature gathering phase, ~140k psychology-related articles were downloaded from public databases. In step two, GPT-4 were used to distil causal relationships from these articles, culminating in the creation of a causal relationship network based on 43,312 selected articles. In the third step, an in-depth examination of these data was executed, adopting link prediction algorithms to forecast the dynamics within the causal relationship network for searching the highly potential causality concept pairs.

Note: LLM stands for large language model; LLMCG algorithm stands for LLM-based causal graph algorithm, which includes the processes of literature retrieval, causal pair extraction, and hypothesis generation.

Step 1: Literature retrieval

The primary data source for this study was a public repository of scientific articles, the PMC Open Access Subset. Our decision to utilize this repository was informed by several key attributes that it possesses. The PMC Open Access Subset boasts an expansive collection of over 2 million full-text XML science and medical articles, providing a substantial and diverse base from which to derive insights for our research. Furthermore, the open-access nature of the articles not only enhances the transparency and reproducibility of our methodology, but also ensures that the results and processes can be independently accessed and verified by other researchers. Notably, the content within this subset originates from recognized journals, all of which have undergone rigorous peer review, lending credence to the quality and reliability of the data we leveraged. Finally, an added advantage was the rich metadata accompanying each article. These metadata were instrumental in refining our article selection process, ensuring coherent thematic alignment with our research objectives in the domains of psychology.

To identify articles relevant to our study, we applied a series of filtering criteria. First, the presence of certain keywords within article titles or abstracts was mandatory. Some examples of these keywords include “psychol”, “clin psychol”, and “biol psychol”. Second, we exploited the metadata accompanying each article. The classification of articles based on these metadata ensured alignment with recognized thematic standards in the domains of psychology and neuroscience. Upon the application of these criteria, we managed to curate a subset of approximately 140K articles that most likely discuss causal concepts in both psychology and neuroscience.

Step 2: Causal pair extraction

The process of extracting causal knowledge from vast troves of scientific literature is intricate and multifaceted. Our methodology distils this complex process into four coherent steps, each serving a distinct purpose. (1) Article selection and cost analysis: Determines the feasibility of processing a specific volume of articles, ensuring optimal resource allocation. (2) Text extraction and analysis: Ensures the purity of the data that enter our causal extraction phase by filtering out nonrelevant content. (3) Causal knowledge extraction: Uses advanced language models to detect, classify, and standardize causal factors relationships present in texts. (4) Graph database storage: Facilitates structured storage, easy retrieval, and the possibility of advanced relational analyses for future research. This streamlined approach ensures accuracy, consistency, and scalability in our endeavor to understand the interplay of causal concepts in psychology and neuroscience.

Text extraction and cleaning

After a meticulous cost analysis detailed in Appendix A , our selection process identified 43,312 articles. This selection was strategically based on the criterion that the journal titles must incorporate the term “Psychol”, signifying their direct relevance to the field of psychology. The distributions of publication sources and years can be found in Table 1 . Extracting the full texts of the articles from their PDF sources was an essential initial step, and, for this purpose, the PyPDF2 Python library was used. This library allowed us to seamlessly extract and concatenate titles, abstracts, and main content from each PDF article. However, a challenge arose with the presence of extraneous sections such as references or tables, in the extracted texts. The implemented procedure, employing regular expressions in Python, was not only adept at identifying variations of the term “references” but also ascertained whether this section appeared as an isolated segment. This check was critical to ensure that the identified that the “references” section was indeed distinct, marking the start of a reference list without continuation into other text. Once identified as a standalone entity, the next step in the method was to efficiently remove the reference section and its subsequent content.

Causal knowledge extraction method

In our effort to extract causal knowledge, the choice of GPT-4 was not arbitrary. While several models were available for such tasks, GPT-4 emerged as a frontrunner due to its advanced capabilities (Wu et al., 2023 ), extensive training on diverse data, with its proven proficiency in understanding context, especially in complex scientific texts (Cheng et al., 2023 ; Sanderson, 2023 ). Other models were indeed considered; however, the capacity of GPT-4 to generate coherent, contextually relevant responses gave our project an edge in its specific requirements.

The extraction process commenced with the segmentation of the articles. Due to the token constraints inherent to GPT-4, it was imperative to break down the articles into manageable chunks, specifically those of 4000 tokens or fewer. This approach ensured a comprehensive interpretation of the content without omitting any potential causal relationships. The next phase was prompt engineering. To effectively guide the extraction capabilities of GPT-4, we crafted explicit prompts. A testament to this meticulous engineering is demonstrated in a directive in which we asked the model to elucidate causal pairs in a predetermined JSON format. For a clearer understanding, readers are referred to Table 2 , which elucidates the example prompt and the subsequent model response. After extraction, the outputs were not immediately cataloged. A filtering process was initiated to ascertain the standardization of the concept pairs. This process weeded out suboptimal outputs. Aiding in this quality control, GPT-4 played a pivotal role in the verification of causal pairs, determining their relevance, causality, and ensuring correct directionality. Finally, while extracting knowledge, we were aware of the constraints imposed by the GPT-4 API. There was a conscious effort to ensure that we operated within the bounds of 60 requests and 150k tokens per minute. This interplay of prompt engineering and stringent filtering was productive.

In addition, we conducted an exploratory study to assess GPT-4’s discernment between “causality” and “correlation” involved four graduate students (mean age 31 ± 10.23), each evaluating relationship pairs extracted from their familiar psychology articles. The experimental details and results can be found in Appendix A and Table A1. The results showed that out of 289 relationships identified by GPT-4, 87.54% were validated. Notably, when GPT-4 classified relationships as causal, only 13.02% (31/238) were recognized as non-relationship, while 65.55% (156/238) agreed upon as causality. This shows that GPT-4 can accurately extract relationships (causality or correlation) in psychological texts, underscoring the potential as a tool for the construction of causal graphs.

To enhance the robustness of the extracted causal relationships and minimize biases, we adopted a multifaceted approach. Recognizing the indispensable role of human judgment, we periodically subjected random samples of extracted causal relationships to the scrutiny of domain experts. Their valuable feedback was instrumental in the real-time fine-tuning the extraction process. Instead of heavily relying on referenced hypotheses, our focus was on extracting causal pairs, primarily from the findings mentioned in the main texts. This systematic methodology ultimately resulted in a refined text corpus distilled from 43,312 articles, which contained many conceptual insights and were primed for rigorous causal extraction.

Graph database storage

Our decision to employ Neo4j as the database system was strategic. Neo4j, as a graph database (Thomer and Wickett, 2020 ), is inherently designed to capture and represent complex relationships between data points, an attribute that is essential for understanding intricate causal relationships. Beyond its technical prowess, Neo4j provides advantages such as scalability, resilience, and efficient querying capabilities (Webber, 2012 ). It is particularly adept at traversing interconnected data points, making it an excellent fit for our causal relationship analysis. The mined causal knowledge finds its abode in the Neo4j graph database. Each pair of causal concepts is represented as a node, with its directionality and interpretations stored as attributes. Relationships provide related concepts together. Storing the knowledge graph in Neo4j allows for the execution of the graph algorithms to analyze concept interconnectivity and reveal potential relationships.

The graph database contains 197k concepts and 235k connections. Table 3 encapsulates the core concepts and provides a vivid snapshot of the most recurring themes; helping us to understand the central topics that dominate the current psychological discourse. A comprehensive examination of the core concepts extracted from 43,312 psychological papers, several distinct patterns and focal areas emerged. In particular, there is a clear balance between health and illness in psychological research. The prominence of terms such as “depression”, “anxiety”, and “symptoms of depression magnifies the commitment in the discipline to understanding and addressing mental illnesses. However, juxtaposed against these are positive terms such as “life satisfaction” and “sense of happiness”, suggesting that psychology not only fixates on challenges but also delves deeply into the nuances of positivity and well-being. Furthermore, the significance given to concepts such as “life satisfaction”, “sense of happiness”, and “job satisfaction” underscores an increasing recognition of emotional well-being and job satisfaction as integral to overall mental health. Intertwining the realms of psychology and neuroscience, terms such as “microglial cell activation”, “cognitive impairment”, and “neurodegenerative changes” signal a growing interest in understanding the neural underpinnings of cognitive and psychological phenomena. In addition, the emphasis on “self-efficacy”, “positive emotions”, and “self-esteem” reflect the profound interest in understanding how self-perception and emotions influence human behavior and well-being. Concepts such as “age”, “resilience”, and “creativity” further expand the canvas, showcasing the eclectic and comprehensive nature of inquiries in the field of psychology.

Overall, this analysis paints a vivid picture of modern psychological research, illuminating its multidimensional approach. It demonstrates a discipline that is deeply engaged with both the challenges and triumphs of human existence, offering holistic insight into the human mind and its myriad complexities.

Step 3: Hypothesis generation using link prediction

In the quest to uncover novel causal relationships beyond direct extraction from texts, the technique of link prediction emerges as a pivotal methodology. It hinges on the premise of proposing potential causal ties between concepts that our knowledge graph does not explicitly connect. The process intricately weaves together vector embedding, similarity analysis, and probability-based ranking. Initially, concepts are transposed into a vector space using node2vec, which is valued for its ability to capture topological nuances. Here, every pair of unconnected concepts is assigned a similarity score, and pairs that do not meet a set benchmark are quickly discarded. As we dive deeper into the higher echelons of these scored pairs, the likelihood of their linkage is assessed using the Jaccard similarity of their neighboring concepts. Subsequently, these potential causal relationships are organized in descending order of their derived probabilities, and the elite pairs are selected.

An illustration of this approach is provided in the case highlighted in Figure A1. For instance, the behavioral inhibition system (BIS) exhibits ties to both the behavioral activation system (BAS) and the subsequent behavioral response of the BAS when encountering reward stimuli, termed the BAS reward response. Simultaneously, another concept, interference, finds itself bound to both the BAS and the BAS Reward Response. This configuration hints at a plausible link between the BIS and interference. Such highly probable causal pairs are not mere intellectual curiosity. They act as springboards, catalyzing the genesis of new experimental designs or research hypotheses ripe for empirical probing. In essence, this capability equips researchers with a cutting-edge instrument, empowering them to navigate the unexplored waters of the psychological and neurological domains.

Using pairs of highly probable causal concepts, we pushed GPT-4 to conjure novel causal hypotheses that bridge concepts. To further elucidate the process of this method, Table 4 provides some examples of hypotheses generated from the process. Such hypotheses, as exemplified in the last row, underscore the potential and power of our method for generating innovative causal propositions.

Hypotheses evaluation and results

In this section, we present an analysis focusing on quality in terms of novelty and usefulness of the hypotheses generated. According to existing literature, these dimensions are instrumental in encapsulating the essence of inventive ideas (Boden, 2009 ; McCarthy et al., 2018 ; Miron-Spektor and Beenen, 2015 ). These parameters have not only been quintessential for gauging creative concepts, but they have also been adopted to evaluate the caliber of research hypotheses (Dowling and Lucey, 2023 ; Krenn and Zeilinger, 2020 ; Oleinik, 2019 ). Specifically, we evaluate the quality of the hypotheses generated by the proposed LLMCG algorithm in relation to those generated by PhD students from an elite university who represent human junior experts, the LLM model, which represents advanced AI systems, and the research ideas refined by psychological researchers which represents cooperation between AI and humans.

The evaluation comprises three main stages. In the first stage, the hypotheses are generated by all contributors, including steps taken to ensure fairness and relevance for comparative analysis. In the second stage, the hypotheses from the first stage are independently and blindly reviewed by experts who represent the human academic community. These experts are asked to provide hypothesis ratings using a specially designed questionnaire to ensure statistical validity. The third stage delves deeper by transforming each research idea into the semantic space of a bidirectional encoder representation from transformers (BERT) (Lee et al., 2023 ), allowing us to intricately analyze the intrinsic reasons behind the rating disparities among the groups. This semantic mapping not only pinpoints the nuanced differences, but also provides potential insights into the cognitive constructs of each hypothesis.

Evaluation procedure

Selection of the focus area for hypothesis generation.

Selecting an appropriate focus area for hypothesis generation is crucial to ensure a balanced and insightful comparison of the hypothesis generation capacities between various contributors. In this study, our goal is to gauge the quality of hypotheses derived from four distinct contributors, with measures in place to mitigate potential confounding variables that might skew the results among groups (Rubin, 2005 ). Our choice of domain is informed by two pivotal criteria: the intricacy and subtlety of the subject matter and familiarity with the domain. It is essential that our chosen domain boasts sufficient complexity to prompt meaningful hypothesis generation and offer a robust assessment of both AI and human contributors” depth of understanding and creativity. Furthermore, while human contributors should be well-acquainted with the domain, their expertise need not match the vast corpus knowledge of the AI.

In terms of overarching human pursuits such as the search for happiness, positive psychology distinguishes itself by avoiding narrowly defined, individual-centric challenges (Seligman and Csikszentmihalyi, 2000 ). This alignment with our selection criteria is epitomized by well-being, a salient concept within positive psychology, as shown in Table 3 . Well-being, with its multidimensional essence that encompass emotional, psychological, and social facets, and its central stature in both research and practical applications of positive psychology (Diener et al., 2010 ; Fredrickson, 2001 ; Seligman and Csikszentmihalyi, 2000 ), becomes the linchpin of our evaluation. The growing importance of well-being in the current global context offers myriad novel avenues for hypothesis generation and theoretical advancement (Forgeard et al., 2011 ; Madill et al., 2022 ; Otu et al., 2020 ). Adding to our rationale, the Positive Psychology Research Center at Tsinghua University is a globally renowned hub for cutting-edge research in this domain. Leveraging this stature, we secured participation from specialized Ph.D. students, reinforcing positive psychology as the most fitting domain for our inquiry.

Hypotheses comparison

In our study, the generated psychological hypotheses were categorized into four distinct groups, consisting of two experimental groups and two control groups. The experimental groups encapsulate hypotheses generated by our algorithm, either through random selection or handpicking by experts from a pool of generated hypotheses. On the other hand, control groups comprise research ideas that were meticulously crafted by doctoral students with substantial academic expertise in the domains and hypotheses generated by representative LLMs. In the following, we elucidate the methodology and underlying rationale for each group:

LLMCG algorithm output (Random-selected LLMCG)

Following the requirement of generating hypotheses centred on well-being, the LLMCG algorithm crafted 130 unique hypotheses. These hypotheses were derived by LLMCG’s evaluation of the most likely causal relationships related to well-being that had not been previously documented in research literature datasets. From this refined pool, 30 research ideas were chosen at random for this experimental group. These hypotheses represent the algorithm’s ability to identify causal relationships and formulate pertinent hypotheses.

LLMCG expert-vetted hypotheses (Expert-selected LLMCG)

For this group, two seasoned psychological researchers, one male aged 47 and one female aged 46, in-depth expertise in the realm of Positive Psychology, conscientiously handpicked 30 of the most promising hypotheses from the refined pool, excluding those from the Random-selected LLMCG category. The selection criteria centered on a holistic understanding of both the novelty and practical relevance of each hypothesis. With an illustrious postdoctoral journey and a robust portfolio of publications in positive psychology to their names, they rigorously sifted through the hypotheses, pinpointing those that showcased a perfect confluence of originality and actionable insight. These hypotheses were meticulously appraised for their relevance, structural coherence, and potential academic value, representing the nexus of machine intelligence and seasoned human discernment.

PhD students’ output (Control-Human)

We enlisted the expertise of 16 doctoral students from the Positive Psychology Research Center at Tsinghua University. Under the guidance of their supervisor, each student was provided with a questionnaire geared toward research on well-being. The participants were given a period of four working days to complete and return the questionnaire, which was distributed during vacation to ensure minimal external disruptions and commitments. The specific instructions provided in the questionnaire is detailed in Table B1 , and each participant was asked to complete 3–4 research hypotheses. By the stipulated deadline, we received responses from 13 doctoral students, with a mean age of 31.92 years (SD = 7.75 years), cumulatively presenting 41 hypotheses related to well-being. To maintain uniformity with the other groups, a random selection was made to shortlist 30 hypotheses for further analysis. These hypotheses reflect the integration of core theoretical concepts with the latest insights into the domain, presenting an academic interpretation rooted in their rigorous training and education. Including this group in our study not only provides a natural benchmark for human ingenuity and expertise but also underscores the invaluable contribution of human cognition in research ideation, serving as a pivotal contrast to AI-generated hypotheses. This juxtaposition illuminates the nuanced differences between human intellectual depth and AI’s analytical progress, enriching the comparative dimensions of our study.

Claude model output (Control-Claude)

This group exemplifies the pinnacle of current LLM technology in generating research hypotheses. Since LLMCG is a nascent technology, its assessment requires a comparative study with well-established counterparts, creating a key paradigm in comparative research. Currently, Claude-2 and GPT-4 represent the apex of AI technology. For example, Claude-2, with an accuracy rate of 54. 4% excels in reasoning and answering questions, substantially outperforming other models such as Falcon, Koala and Vicuna, which have accuracy rates of 17.1–25.5% (Wu et al., 2023 ). To facilitate a more comprehensive evaluation of the new model by researchers and to increase the diversity and breadth of comparison, we chose Claude-2 as the control model. Using the detailed instructions provided in Table B2, Claude-2 was iteratively prompted to generate research hypotheses, generating ten hypotheses per prompt, culminating in a total of 50 hypotheses. Although the sheer number and range of these hypotheses accentuate the capabilities of Claude-2, to ensure compatibility in terms of complexity and depth between all groups, a subsequent refinement was considered essential. With minimal human intervention, GPT-4 was used to evaluate these 50 hypotheses and select the top 30 that exhibited the most innovative, relevant, and academically valuable insights. This process ensured the infusion of both the LLM”s analytical prowess and a layer of qualitative rigor, thus giving rise to a set of hypotheses that not only align with the overarching theme of well-being but also resonate with current academic discourse.

Hypotheses assessment

The assessment of the hypotheses encompasses two key components: the evaluation conducted by eminent psychology professors emphasizing novelty and utility, and the deep semantic analysis involving BERT and t -distributed stochastic neighbor embedding ( t -SNE) visualization to discern semantic structures and disparities among hypotheses.

Human academic community

The review task was entrusted to three eminent psychology professors (all male, mean age = 42.33), who have a decade-long legacy in guiding doctoral and master”s students in positive psychology and editorial stints in renowned journals; their task was to conduct a meticulous evaluation of the 120 hypotheses. Importantly, to ensure unbiased evaluation, the hypotheses were presented to them in a completely randomized order in the questionnaire.

Our emphasis was undeniably anchored to two primary tenets: novelty and utility (Cohen, 2017 ; Shardlow et al., 2018 ; Thompson and Skau, 2023 ; Yu et al., 2016 ), as shown in Table B3 . Utility in hypothesis crafting demands that our propositions extend beyond mere factual accuracy; they must resonate deeply with academic investigations, ensuring substantial practical implications. Given the inherent challenges of research, marked by constraints in time, manpower, and funding, it is essential to design hypotheses that optimize the utilization of these resources. On the novelty front, we strive to introduce innovative perspectives that have the power to challenge and expand upon existing academic theories. This not only propels the discipline forward but also ensures that we do not inadvertently tread on ground already covered by our contemporaries.

Deep semantic analysis

While human evaluations provide invaluable insight into the novelty and utility of hypotheses, to objectively discern and visualize semantic structures and the disparities among them, we turn to the realm of deep learning. Specifically, we employ the power of BERT (Devlin et al., 2018 ). BERT, as highlighted by Lee et al. ( 2023 ), had a remarkable potential to assess the innovation of ideas. By translating each hypothesis into a high-dimensional vector in the BERT domain, we obtain the profound semantic core of each statement. However, such granularity in dimensions presents challenges when aiming for visualization.

To alleviate this and to intuitively understand the clustering and dispersion of these hypotheses in semantic space, we deploy the t -SNE ( t -distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding) technique (Van der Maaten and Hinton, 2008 ), which is adept at reducing the dimensionality of the data while preserving the relative pairwise distances between the items. Thus, when we map our BERT-encoded hypotheses onto a 2D t -SNE plane, an immediate visual grasp on how closely or distantly related our hypotheses are in terms of their semantic content. Our intent is twofold: to understand the semantic terrains carved out by the different groups and to infer the potential reasons for some of the hypotheses garnered heightened novelty or utility ratings from experts. The convergence of human evaluations and semantic layouts, as delineated by Algorithm 1 in Appendix B , reveal the interplay between human intuition and the inherent semantic structure of the hypotheses.

Qualitative analysis by topic analysis

To better understand the underlying thought processes and the topical emphasis of both PhD students and the LLMCG model, qualitative analyses were performed using visual tools such as word clouds and connection graphs, as detailed in Appendix B . The word cloud, as a graphical representation, effectively captures the frequency and importance of terms, providing direct visualization of the dominant themes. Connection graphs, on the other hand, elucidate the relationships and interplay between various themes and concepts. Using these visual tools, we aimed to achieve a more intuitive and clear representation of the data, allowing for easy comparison and interpretation.

Observations drawn from both the word clouds and the connection graphs in Figures B1 and B2 provide us with a rich tapestry of insights into the thought processes and priorities of Ph.D. students and the LLMCG model. For instance, the emphasis in the Control-Human word cloud on terms such as “robot” and “AI” indicates a strong interest among Ph.D. students in the nexus between technology and psychology. It is particularly fascinating to see a group of academically trained individuals focusing on the real world implications and intersections of their studies, as shown by their apparent draw toward trending topics. This not only underscores their adaptability but also emphasizes the importance of contextual relevance. Conversely, the LLMCG groups, particularly the Expert-selected LLMCG group, emphasize the community, collective experiences, and the nuances of social interconnectedness. This denotes a deep-rooted understanding and application of higher-order social psychological concepts, reflecting the model”s ability to dive deep into the intricate layers of human social behavior.

Furthermore, the connection graphs support these observations. The Control-Human graph, with its exploration of themes such as “Robot Companionship” and its relation to factors such as “heart rate variability (HRV)”, demonstrates a confluence of technology and human well-being. The other groups, especially the Random-selected LLMCG group, yield themes that are more societal and structural, hinting at broader determinants of individual well-being.

Analysis of human evaluations

To quantify the agreement among the raters, we employed Spearman correlation coefficients. The results, as shown in Table B5, reveal a spectrum of agreement levels between the reviewer pairs, showcasing the subjective dimension intrinsic to the evaluation of novelty and usefulness. In particular, the correlation between reviewer 1 and reviewer 2 in novelty (Spearman r  = 0.387, p  < 0.0001) and between reviewer 2 and reviewer 3 in usefulness (Spearman r  = 0.376, p  < 0.0001) suggests a meaningful level of consensus, particularly highlighting their capacity to identify valuable insights when evaluating hypotheses.

The variations in correlation values, such as between reviewer 2 and reviewer 3 ( r  = 0.069, p  = 0.453), can be attributed to the diverse research orientations and backgrounds of each reviewer. Reviewer 1 focuses on social ecology, reviewer 3 specializes in neuroscientific methodologies, and reviewer 2 integrates various views using technologies like virtual reality, and computational methods. In our evaluation, we present specific hypotheses cases to illustrate the differing perspectives between reviewers, as detailed in Table B4 and Figure B3. For example, C5 introduces the novel concept of “Virtual Resilience”. Reviewers 1 and 3 highlighted its originality and utility, while reviewer 2 rated it lower in both categories. Meanwhile, C6, which focuses on social neuroscience, resonated with reviewer 3, while reviewers 1 and 2 only partially affirmed it. These differences underscore the complexity of evaluating scientific contributions and highlight the importance of considering a range of expert opinions for a comprehensive evaluation.

This assessment is divided into two main sections: Novelty analysis and usefulness analysis.

Novelty analysis

In the dynamic realm of scientific research, measuring and analyzing novelty is gaining paramount importance (Shin et al., 2022 ). ANOVA was used to analyze the novelty scores represented in Fig. 2 a, and we identified a significant influence of the group factor on the mean novelty score between different reviewers. Initially, z-scores were calculated for each reviewer”s ratings to standardize the scoring scale, which were then averaged. The distinct differences between the groups, as visualized in the boxplots, are statistically underpinned by the results in Table 5 . The ANOVA results revealed a pronounced effect of the grouping factor ( F (3116) = 6.92, p  = 0.0002), with variance explained by the grouping factor (R-squared) of 15.19%.

Box plots on the left ( a ) and ( b ) depict distributions of novelty and usefulness scores, respectively, while smoothed line plots on the right demonstrate the descending order of novelty and usefulness scores and subjected to a moving average with a window size of 2. * denotes p  < 0.05, ** denotes p  <0.01.

Further pairwise comparisons using the Bonferroni method, as delineated in Table 5 and visually corroborated by Fig. 2 a; significant disparities were discerned between Random-selected LLMCG and Control-Claude ( t (59) = 3.34, p  = 0.007) and between Control-Human and Control-Claude ( t (59) = 4.32, p  < 0.001). The Cohen’s d values of 0.8809 and 1.1192 respectively indicate that the novelty scores for the Random-selected LLMCG and Control-Human groups are significantly higher than those for the Control-Claude group. Additionally, when considering the cumulative distribution plots to the right of Fig. 2 a, we observe the distributional characteristics of the novel scores. For example, it can be observed that the Expert-selected LLMCG curve portrays a greater concentration in the middle score range when compared to the Control-Claude , curve but dominates in the high novelty scores (highlighted in dashed rectangle). Moreover, comparisons involving Control-Human with both Random-selected LLMCG and Expert-selected LLMCG did not manifest statistically significant variances, indicating aligned novelty perceptions among these groups. Finally, the comparisons between Expert-selected LLMCG and Control-Claude ( t (59) = 2.49, p  = 0.085) suggest a trend toward significance, with a Cohen’s d value of 0.6226 indicating generally higher novelty scores for Expert-selected LLMCG compared to Control-Claude .

To mitigate potential biases due to individual reviewer inclinations, we expanded our evaluation to include both median and maximum z-scores from the three reviewers for each hypothesis. These multifaceted analyses enhance the robustness of our results by minimizing the influence of extreme values and potential outliers. First, when analyzing the median novelty scores, the ANOVA test demonstrated a notable association with the grouping factor ( F (3,116) = 6.54, p  = 0.0004), which explained 14.41% of the variance. As illustrated in Table 5 , pairwise evaluations revealed significant disparities between Control-Human and Control-Claude ( t (59) = 4.01, p  = 0.001), with Control-Human performing significantly higher than Control-Claude (Cohen’s d  = 1.1031). Similarly, there were significant differences between Random-selected LLMCG and Control-Claude ( t (59) = 3.40, p  = 0.006), where Random-selected LLMCG also significantly outperformed Control-Claude (Cohen’s d  = 0.8875). Interestingly, the comparison of Expert-selected LLMCG with Control-Claude ( t (59) = 1.70, p  = 0.550) and other group pairings did not include statistically significant differences.

Subsequently, turning our attention to maximum novelty scores provided crucial insights, especially where outlier scores may carry significant weight. The influence of the grouping factor was evident ( F (3,116) = 7.20, p  = 0.0002), indicating an explained variance of 15.70%. In particular, clear differences emerged between Control-Human and Control-Claude ( t (59) = 4.36, p  < 0.001), and between Random-selected LLMCG and Control-Claude ( t (59) = 3.47, p  = 0.004). A particularly intriguing observation was the significant difference between Expert-selected LLMCG and Control-Claude ( t (59) = 3.12, p  = 0.014). The Cohen’s d values of 1.1637, 1.0457, and 0.6987 respectively indicate that the novelty scores for the Control-Human , Random-selected LLMCG , and Expert-selected LLMCG groups are significantly higher than those for the Control-Claude group. Together, these analyses offer a multifaceted perspective on novelty evaluations. Specifically, the results of the median analysis echo and support those of the mean, reinforcing the reliability of our assessments. The discerned significance between Control-Claude and Expert-selected LLMCG in the median data emphasizes the intricate differences, while also pointing to broader congruence in novelty perceptions.

Usefulness analysis

Evaluating the practical impact of hypotheses is crucial in scientific research assessments. In the mean useful spectrum, the grouping factor did not exert a significant influence ( F (3,116) = 5.25, p  = 0.553). Figure 2 b presents the utility score distributions between groups. The narrow interquartile range of Control-Human suggests a relatively consistent assessment among reviewers. On the other hand, the spread and outliers in the Control-Claude distribution hint at varied utility perceptions. Both LLMCG groups cover a broad score range, demonstrating a mixture of high and low utility scores, while the Expert-selected LLMCG gravitates more toward higher usefulness scores. The smoothed line plots accompanying Fig. 2 b further detail the score densities. For instance, Random-selected LLMCG boasts several high utility scores, counterbalanced by a smattering of low scores. Interestingly, the distributions for Control-Human and Expert-selected LLMCG appear to be closely aligned. While mean utility scores provide an overarching view, the nuances within the boxplots and smoothed plots offer deeper insights. This comprehensive understanding can guide future endeavors in content generation and evaluation, spotlighting key areas of focus and potential improvements.

Comparison between the LLMCG and GPT-4

To evaluate the impact of integrating a causal graph with GPT-4, we performed an ablation study comparing the hypotheses generated by GPT-4 alone and those of the proposed LLMCG framework. For this experiment, 60 hypotheses were created using GPT-4, following the detailed instructions in Table B2 . Furthermore, 60 hypotheses for the LLMCG group were randomly selected from the remaining pool of 70 hypotheses. Subsequently, both sets of hypotheses were assessed by three independent reviewers for novelty and usefulness, as previously described.

Table 6 shows a comparison between the GPT-4 and LLMCG groups, highlighting a significant difference in novelty scores (mean value: t (119) = 6.60, p  < 0.0001) but not in usefulness scores (mean value: t (119) = 1.31, p  = 0.1937). This indicates that the LLMCG framework significantly enhances hypothesis novelty (all Cohen’s d  > 1.1) without affecting usefulness compared to the GPT-4 group. Figure B6 visually contrasts these findings, underlining the causal graph’s unique role in fostering novel hypothesis generation when integrated with GPT-4.

The t -SNE visualizations (Fig. 3 ) illustrate the semantic relationships between different groups, capturing the patterns of novelty and usefulness. Notably, a distinct clustering among PhD students suggests shared academic influences, while the LLMCG groups display broader topic dispersion, hinting at a wider semantic understanding. The size of the bubbles reflects the novelty and usefulness scores, emphasizing the diverse perceptions of what is considered innovative versus beneficial. Additionally, the numbers near the yellow dots represent the participant IDs, which demonstrated that the semantics of the same participant, such as H05 or H06, are closely aligned. In Fig. B4 , a distinct clustering of examples is observed, particularly highlighting the close proximity of hypotheses C3, C4, and C8 within the semantic space. This observation is further elucidated in Appendix B , enhancing the comprehension of BERT’s semantic representation. Instead of solely depending on superficial textual descriptions, this analysis penetrates into the underlying understanding of concepts within the semantic space, a topic also explored in recent research (Johnson et al., 2023 ).

Comparison of ( a ) novelty and ( b ) usefulness scores (bubble size scaled by 100) among the different groups.

In the distribution of semantic distances (Fig. 4 ), we observed that the Control-Human group exhibits a distinctively greater semantic distance in comparison to the other groups, emphasizing their unique semantic orientations. The statistical support for this observation is derived from the ANOVA results, with a significant F-statistic ( F (3,1652) = 84.1611, p  < 0.00001), underscoring the impact of the grouping factor. This factor explains a remarkable 86.96% of the variance, as indicated by the R -squared value. Multiple comparisons, as shown in Table 7 , further elucidate the subtleties of these group differences. Control-Human and Control-Claude exhibit a significant contrast in their semantic distances, as highlighted by the t value of 16.41 and the adjusted p value ( < 0.0001). This difference indicates distinct thought patterns or emphasis in the two groups. Notably, Control-Human demonstrates a greater semantic distance (Cohen’s d = 1.1630). Similarly, a comparison of the Control-Claude and LLMCG models reveals pronounced differences (Cohen’s d  > 0.9), more so with the Expert-selected LLMCG ( p  < 0.0001). A comparison of Control-Human with the LLMCG models shows divergent semantic orientations, with statistically significant larger distances than Random-selected LLMCG ( p  = 0.0036) and a trend toward difference with Expert-selected LLMCG ( p  = 0.0687). Intriguingly, the two LLMCG groups—Random-selected and Expert-selected—exhibit similar semantic distances, as evidenced by a nonsignificant p value of 0.4362. Furthermore, the significant distinctions we observed, particularly between the Control-Human and other groups, align with human evaluations of novelty. This coherence indicates that the BERT space representation coupled with statistical analyses could effectively mimic human judgment. Such results underscore the potential of this approach for automated hypothesis testing, paving the way for more efficient and streamlined semantic evaluations in the future.

Note: ** denotes p  < 0.01, **** denotes p  < 0.0001.

In general, visual and statistical analyses reveal the nuanced semantic landscapes of each group. While the Ph.D. students’ shared background influences their clustering, the machine models exhibit a comprehensive grasp of topics, emphasizing the intricate interplay of individual experiences, academic influences, and algorithmic understanding in shaping semantic representations.

This investigation carried out a detailed evaluation of the various hypothesis contributors, blending both quantitative and qualitative analyses. In terms of topic analysis, distinct variations were observed between Control-Human and LLMCG, the latter presenting more expansive thematic coverage. For human evaluation, hypotheses from Ph.D. students paralleled the LLMCG in novelty, reinforcing AI’s growing competence in mirroring human innovative thinking. Furthermore, when juxtaposed with AI models such as Control-Claude , the LLMCG exhibited increased novelty. Deep semantic analysis via t -SNE and BERT representations allowed us to intuitively grasp semantic essence of hypotheses, signaling the possibility of future automated hypothesis assessments. Interestingly, LLMCG appeared to encompass broader complementary domains compared to human input. Taken together, these findings highlight the emerging role of AI in hypothesis generation and provide key insights into hypothesis evaluation across diverse origins.

General discussion

This research delves into the synergistic relationship between LLM and causal graphs in the hypothesis generation process. Our findings underscore the ability of LLM, when integrated with causal graph techniques, to produce meaningful hypotheses with increased efficiency and quality. By centering our investigation on “well-being” we emphasize its pivotal role in psychological studies and highlight the potential convergence of technology and society. A multifaceted assessment approach to evaluate quality by topic analysis, human evaluation and deep semantic analysis demonstrates that AI-augmented methods not only outshine LLM-only techniques in generating hypotheses with superior novelty and show quality on par with human expertise but also boast the capability for more profound conceptual incorporations and a broader semantic spectrum. Such a multifaceted lens of assessment introduces a novel perspective for the scholarly realm, equipping researchers with an enriched understanding and an innovative toolset for hypothesis generation. At its core, the melding of LLM and causal graphs signals a promising frontier, especially in regard to dissecting cornerstone psychological constructs such as “well-being”. This marriage of methodologies, enriched by the comprehensive assessment angle, deepens our comprehension of both the immediate and broader ramifications of our research endeavors.

The prominence of causal graphs in psychology is profound, they offer researchers a unified platform for synthesizing and hypothesizing diverse psychological realms (Borsboom et al., 2021 ; Uleman et al., 2021 ). Our study echoes this, producing groundbreaking hypotheses comparable in depth to early expert propositions. Deep semantic analysis bolstered these findings, emphasizing that our hypotheses have distinct cross-disciplinary merits, particularly when compared to those of individual doctoral scholars. However, the traditional use of causal graphs in psychology presents challenges due to its demanding nature, often requiring insights from multiple experts (Crielaard et al., 2022 ). Our research, however, harnesses LLM’s causal extraction, automating causal pair derivation and, in turn, minimizing the need for extensive expert input. The union of the causal graphs’ systematic approach with AI-driven creativity, as seen with LLMs, paves the way for the future of psychological inquiry. Thanks to advancements in AI, barriers once created by causal graphs’ intricate procedures are being dismantled. Furthermore, as the era of big data dawns, the integration of AI and causal graphs in psychology augments research capabilities, but also brings into focus the broader implications for society. This fusion provides a nuanced understanding of the intricate sociopsychological dynamics, emphasizing the importance of adapting research methodologies in tandem with technological progress.

In the realm of research, LLMs serve a unique purpose, often by acting as the foundation or baseline against which newer methods and approaches are assessed. The demonstrated productivity enhancements by generative AI tools, as evidenced by Noy and Zhang ( 2023 ), indicate the potential of such LLMs. In our investigation, we pit the hypotheses generated by such substantial models against our integrated LLMCG approach. Intriguingly, while these LLMs showcased admirable practicality in their hypotheses, they substantially lagged behind in terms of innovation when juxtaposed with the doctoral student and LLMCG group. This divergence in results can be attributed to the causal network curated from 43k research papers, funneling the vast knowledge reservoir of the LLM squarely into the realm of scientific psychology. The increased precision in hypothesis generation by these models fits well within the framework of generative networks. Tong et al. ( 2021 ) highlighted that, by integrating structured constraints, conventional neural networks can accurately generate semantically relevant content. One of the salient merits of the causal graph, in this context, is its ability to alleviate inherent ambiguity or interpretability challenges posed by LLMs. By providing a systematic and structured framework, the causal graph aids in unearthing the underlying logic and rationale of the outputs generated by LLMs. Notably, this finding echoes the perspective of Pan et al. ( 2023 ), where the integration of structured knowledge from knowledge graphs was shown to provide an invaluable layer of clarity and interpretability to LLMs, especially in complex reasoning tasks. Such structured approaches not only boost the confidence of researchers in the hypotheses derived but also augment the transparency and understandability of LLM outputs. In essence, leveraging causal graphs may very well herald a new era in model interpretability, serving as a conduit to unlock the black box that large models often represent in contemporary research.

In the ever-evolving tapestry of research, every advancement invariably comes with its unique set of constraints, and our study was no exception. On the technical front, a pivotal challenge stemmed from the opaque inner workings of the GPT. Determining the exact machinations within the GPT that lead to the formation of specific causal pairs remains elusive, thereby reintroducing the age-old issue of AI’s inherent lack of transparency (Buruk, 2023 ; Cao and Yousefzadeh, 2023 ). This opacity is magnified in our sparse causal graph, which, while expansive, is occasionally riddled with concepts that, while semantically distinct, converge in meaning. In tangible applications, a careful and meticulous algorithmic evaluation would be imperative to construct an accurate psychological conceptual landscape. Delving into psychology, which bridges humanities and natural sciences, it continuously aims to unravel human cognition and behavior (Hergenhahn and Henley, 2013 ). Despite the dominance of traditional methodologies (Henrich et al., 2010 ; Shah et al., 2015 ), the present data-centric era amplifies the synergy of technology and humanities, resonating with Hasok Chang’s vision of enriched science (Chang, 2007 ). This symbiosis is evident when assessing structural holes in social networks (Burt, 2004 ) and viewing novelty as a bridge across these divides (Foster et al., 2021 ). Such perspectives emphasize the importance of thorough algorithmic assessments, highlighting potential avenues in humanities research, especially when incorporating large language models for innovative hypothesis crafting and verification.

However, there are some limitations to this research. Firstly, we acknowledge that constructing causal relationship graphs has potential inaccuracies, with ~13% relationship pairs not aligning with human expert estimations. Enhancing the estimation of relationship extraction could be a pathway to improve the accuracy of the causal graph, potentially leading to more robust hypotheses. Secondly, our validation process was limited to 130 hypotheses, however, the vastness of our conceptual landscape suggests countless possibilities. As an exemplar, the twenty pivotal psychological concepts highlighted in Table 3 alone could spawn an extensive array of hypotheses. However, the validation of these surrounding hypotheses would unquestionably lead to a multitude of speculations. A striking observation during our validation was the inconsistency in the evaluations of the senior expert panels (as shown in Table B5 ). This shift underscores a pivotal insight: our integration of AI has transitioned the dependency on scarce expert resources from hypothesis generation to evaluation. In the future, rigorous evaluations ensuring both novelty and utility could become a focal point of exploration. The promising path forward necessitates a thoughtful integration of technological innovation and human expertise to fully realize the potential suggested by our study.

In conclusion, our research provides pioneering insight into the symbiotic fusion of LLMs, which are epitomized by GPT, and causal graphs from the realm of psychological hypothesis generation, especially emphasizing “well-being”. Importantly, as highlighted by (Cao and Yousefzadeh, 2023 ), ensuring a synergistic alignment between domain knowledge and AI extrapolation is crucial. This synergy serves as the foundation for maintaining AI models within their conceptual limits, thus bolstering the validity and reliability of the hypotheses generated. Our approach intricately interweaves the advanced capabilities of LLMs with the methodological prowess of causal graphs, thereby optimizing while also refining the depth and precision of hypothesis generation. The causal graph, of paramount importance in psychology due to its cross-disciplinary potential, often demands vast amounts of expert involvement. Our innovative approach addresses this by utilizing LLM’s exceptional causal extraction abilities, effectively facilitating the transition of intense expert engagement from hypothesis creation to evaluation. Therefore, our methodology combined LLM with causal graphs, propelling psychological research forward by improving hypothesis generation and offering tools to blend theoretical and data-centric approaches. This synergy particularly enriches our understanding of social psychology’s complex dynamics, such as happiness research, demonstrating the profound impact of integrating AI with traditional research frameworks.

Data availability

The data generated and analyzed in this study are partially available within the Supplementary materials . For additional data supporting the findings of this research, interested parties may contact the corresponding author, who will provide the information upon receiving a reasonable request.

Battleday RM, Peterson JC, Griffiths TL (2020) Capturing human categorization of natural images by combining deep networks and cognitive models. Nat Commun 11(1):5418

Article   ADS   PubMed   PubMed Central   Google Scholar  

Bechmann A, Bowker GC (2019) Unsupervised by any other name: hidden layers of knowledge production in artificial intelligence on social media. Big Data Soc 6(1):2053951718819569

Article   Google Scholar  

Binz M, Schulz E (2023) Using cognitive psychology to understand GPT-3. Proc Natl Acad Sci 120(6):e2218523120

Article   CAS   PubMed   PubMed Central   Google Scholar  

Boden MA (2009) Computer models of creativity. AI Mag 30(3):23–23

Google Scholar  

Borsboom D, Deserno MK, Rhemtulla M, Epskamp S, Fried EI, McNally RJ (2021) Network analysis of multivariate data in psychological science. Nat Rev Methods Prim 1(1):58

Article   CAS   Google Scholar  

Burt RS (2004) Structural holes and good ideas. Am J Sociol 110(2):349–399

Buruk O (2023) Academic writing with GPT-3.5: reflections on practices, efficacy and transparency. arXiv preprint arXiv:2304.11079

Cao X, Yousefzadeh R (2023) Extrapolation and AI transparency: why machine learning models should reveal when they make decisions beyond their training. Big Data Soc 10(1):20539517231169731

Chang H (2007) Scientific progress: beyond foundationalism and coherentism1. R Inst Philos Suppl 61:1–20

Cheng K, Guo Q, He Y, Lu Y, Gu S, Wu H (2023) Exploring the potential of GPT-4 in biomedical engineering: the dawn of a new era. Ann Biomed Eng 51:1645–1653

Article   ADS   PubMed   Google Scholar  

Cichy RM, Khosla A, Pantazis D, Torralba A, Oliva A (2016) Comparison of deep neural networks to spatio-temporal cortical dynamics of human visual object recognition reveals hierarchical correspondence. Sci Rep 6(1):27755

Article   ADS   CAS   PubMed   PubMed Central   Google Scholar  

Cohen BA (2017) How should novelty be valued in science? Elife 6:e28699

Article   PubMed   PubMed Central   Google Scholar  

Crielaard L, Uleman JF, Châtel BD, Epskamp S, Sloot P, Quax R (2022) Refining the causal loop diagram: a tutorial for maximizing the contribution of domain expertise in computational system dynamics modeling. Psychol Methods 29(1):169–201

Article   PubMed   Google Scholar  

Devlin J, Chang M W, Lee K & Toutanova (2019) Bert: pre-training of deep bidirectional transformers for language understanding. In Proceedings of the 2019 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, Volume 1 (Long and Short Papers) (pp. 4171–4186)

Diener E, Wirtz D, Tov W, Kim-Prieto C, Choi D-W, Oishi S, Biswas-Diener R (2010) New well-being measures: short scales to assess flourishing and positive and negative feelings. Soc Indic Res 97:143–156

Dowling M, Lucey B (2023) ChatGPT for (finance) research: the Bananarama conjecture. Financ Res Lett 53:103662

Forgeard MJ, Jayawickreme E, Kern ML, Seligman ME (2011) Doing the right thing: measuring wellbeing for public policy. Int J Wellbeing 1(1):79–106

Foster J G, Shi F & Evans J (2021) Surprise! Measuring novelty as expectation violation. SocArXiv

Fredrickson BL (2001) The role of positive emotions in positive psychology: The broaden-and-build theory of positive emotions. Am Psychol 56(3):218

Gu Q, Kuwajerwala A, Morin S, Jatavallabhula K M, Sen B, Agarwal, A et al. (2024) ConceptGraphs: open-vocabulary 3D scene graphs for perception and planning. In 2nd Workshop on Language and Robot Learning: Language as Grounding

Henrich J, Heine SJ, Norenzayan A (2010) Most people are not WEIRD. Nature 466(7302):29–29

Article   ADS   CAS   PubMed   Google Scholar  

Hergenhahn B R, Henley T (2013) An introduction to the history of psychology . Cengage Learning

Jaccard J, Jacoby J (2019) Theory construction and model-building skills: a practical guide for social scientists . Guilford publications

Johnson DR, Kaufman JC, Baker BS, Patterson JD, Barbot B, Green AE (2023) Divergent semantic integration (DSI): Extracting creativity from narratives with distributional semantic modeling. Behav Res Methods 55(7):3726–3759

Kıcıman E, Ness R, Sharma A & Tan C (2023) Causal reasoning and large language models: opening a new frontier for causality. arXiv preprint arXiv:2305.00050

Koehler DJ (1994) Hypothesis generation and confidence in judgment. J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn 20(2):461–469

Krenn M, Zeilinger A (2020) Predicting research trends with semantic and neural networks with an application in quantum physics. Proc Natl Acad Sci 117(4):1910–1916

Lee H, Zhou W, Bai H, Meng W, Zeng T, Peng K & Kumada T (2023) Natural language processing algorithms for divergent thinking assessment. In: Proc IEEE 6th Eurasian Conference on Educational Innovation (ECEI) p 198–202

Madill A, Shloim N, Brown B, Hugh-Jones S, Plastow J, Setiyawati D (2022) Mainstreaming global mental health: Is there potential to embed psychosocial well-being impact in all global challenges research? Appl Psychol Health Well-Being 14(4):1291–1313

McCarthy M, Chen CC, McNamee RC (2018) Novelty and usefulness trade-off: cultural cognitive differences and creative idea evaluation. J Cross-Cult Psychol 49(2):171–198

McGuire WJ (1973) The yin and yang of progress in social psychology: seven koan. J Personal Soc Psychol 26(3):446–456

Miron-Spektor E, Beenen G (2015) Motivating creativity: The effects of sequential and simultaneous learning and performance achievement goals on product novelty and usefulness. Organ Behav Hum Decis Process 127:53–65

Nisbett RE, Peng K, Choi I, Norenzayan A (2001) Culture and systems of thought: holistic versus analytic cognition. Psychol Rev 108(2):291–310

Article   CAS   PubMed   Google Scholar  

Noy S, Zhang W (2023) Experimental evidence on the productivity effects of generative artificial intelligence. Science 381:187–192

Oleinik A (2019) What are neural networks not good at? On artificial creativity. Big Data Soc 6(1):2053951719839433

Otu A, Charles CH, Yaya S (2020) Mental health and psychosocial well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic: the invisible elephant in the room. Int J Ment Health Syst 14:1–5

Pan S, Luo L, Wang Y, Chen C, Wang J & Wu X (2024) Unifying large language models and knowledge graphs: a roadmap. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering 36(7):3580–3599

Rubin DB (2005) Causal inference using potential outcomes: design, modeling, decisions. J Am Stat Assoc 100(469):322–331

Article   MathSciNet   CAS   Google Scholar  

Sanderson K (2023) GPT-4 is here: what scientists think. Nature 615(7954):773

Seligman ME, Csikszentmihalyi M (2000) Positive psychology: an introduction. Am Psychol 55(1):5–14

Shah DV, Cappella JN, Neuman WR (2015) Big data, digital media, and computational social science: possibilities and perils. Ann Am Acad Political Soc Sci 659(1):6–13

Shardlow M, Batista-Navarro R, Thompson P, Nawaz R, McNaught J, Ananiadou S (2018) Identification of research hypotheses and new knowledge from scientific literature. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak 18(1):1–13

Shin H, Kim K, Kogler DF (2022) Scientific collaboration, research funding, and novelty in scientific knowledge. PLoS ONE 17(7):e0271678

Thomas RP, Dougherty MR, Sprenger AM, Harbison J (2008) Diagnostic hypothesis generation and human judgment. Psychol Rev 115(1):155–185

Thomer AK, Wickett KM (2020) Relational data paradigms: what do we learn by taking the materiality of databases seriously? Big Data Soc 7(1):2053951720934838

Thompson WH, Skau S (2023) On the scope of scientific hypotheses. R Soc Open Sci 10(8):230607

Tong S, Liang X, Kumada T, Iwaki S (2021) Putative ratios of facial attractiveness in a deep neural network. Vis Res 178:86–99

Uleman JF, Melis RJ, Quax R, van der Zee EA, Thijssen D, Dresler M (2021) Mapping the multicausality of Alzheimer’s disease through group model building. GeroScience 43:829–843

Van der Maaten L, Hinton G (2008) Visualizing data using t-SNE. J Mach Learn Res 9(11):2579–2605

Vaswani A, Shazeer N, Parmar N, Uszkoreit J, Jones L, Gomez A N & Polosukhin I (2017) Attention is all you need. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems

Wang H, Fu T, Du Y, Gao W, Huang K, Liu Z (2023) Scientific discovery in the age of artificial intelligence. Nature 620(7972):47–60

Webber J (2012) A programmatic introduction to neo4j. In Proceedings of the 3rd annual conference on systems, programming, and applications: software for humanity p 217–218

Williams K, Berman G, Michalska S (2023) Investigating hybridity in artificial intelligence research. Big Data Soc 10(2):20539517231180577

Wu S, Koo M, Blum L, Black A, Kao L, Scalzo F & Kurtz I (2023) A comparative study of open-source large language models, GPT-4 and Claude 2: multiple-choice test taking in nephrology. arXiv preprint arXiv:2308.04709

Yu F, Peng T, Peng K, Zheng SX, Liu Z (2016) The Semantic Network Model of creativity: analysis of online social media data. Creat Res J 28(3):268–274

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors thank Dr. Honghong Bai (Radboud University), Dr. ChienTe Wu (The University of Tokyo), Dr. Peng Cheng (Tsinghua University), and Yusong Guo (Tsinghua University) for their great comments on the earlier version of this manuscript. This research has been generously funded by personal contributions, with special acknowledgment to K. Mao. Additionally, he conceived and developed the causality graph and AI hypothesis generation technology presented in this paper from scratch, and generated all AI hypotheses and paid for its costs. The authors sincerely thank K. Mao for his support, which enabled this research. In addition, K. Peng and S. Tong were partly supported by the Tsinghua University lnitiative Scientific Research Program (No. 20213080008), Self-Funded Project of Institute for Global Industry, Tsinghua University (202-296-001), Shuimu Scholars program of Tsinghua University (No. 2021SM157), and the China Postdoctoral International Exchange Program (No. YJ20210266).

Author information

These authors contributed equally: Song Tong, Kai Mao.

Authors and Affiliations

Department of Psychological and Cognitive Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

Song Tong & Kaiping Peng

Positive Psychology Research Center, School of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

Song Tong, Zhen Huang, Yukun Zhao & Kaiping Peng

AI for Wellbeing Lab, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

Institute for Global Industry, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

Kindom KK, Tokyo, Japan

You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

Contributions

Song Tong: Data analysis, Experiments, Writing—original draft & review. Kai Mao: Designed the causality graph methodology, Generated AI hypotheses, Developed hypothesis generation techniques, Writing—review & editing. Zhen Huang: Statistical Analysis, Experiments, Writing—review & editing. Yukun Zhao: Conceptualization, Project administration, Supervision, Writing—review & editing. Kaiping Peng: Conceptualization, Writing—review & editing.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Yukun Zhao or Kaiping Peng .

Ethics declarations

Competing interests.

The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Ethical approval

In this study, ethical approval was granted by the Institutional Review Board (IRB) of the Department of Psychology at Tsinghua University, China. The Research Ethics Committee documented this approval under the number IRB202306, following an extensive review that concluded on March 12, 2023. This approval indicates the research’s strict compliance with the IRB’s guidelines and regulations, ensuring ethical integrity and adherence throughout the study.

Informed consent

Before participating, all study participants gave their informed consent. They received comprehensive details about the study’s goals, methods, potential risks and benefits, confidentiality safeguards, and their rights as participants. This process guaranteed that participants were fully informed about the study’s nature and voluntarily agreed to participate, free from coercion or undue influence.

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Supplemental material, rights and permissions.

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ .

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article.

Tong, S., Mao, K., Huang, Z. et al. Automating psychological hypothesis generation with AI: when large language models meet causal graph. Humanit Soc Sci Commun 11 , 896 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-03407-5

Download citation

Received : 08 November 2023

Accepted : 25 June 2024

Published : 09 July 2024

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-03407-5

Share this article

Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:

Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.

Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative

Quick links

• Explore articles by subject
• Guide to authors
• Editorial policies

• KSAT Insider
• KSAT Connect
• Entertainment

Vindication for patients as Long COVID is declared official medical condition

Newly accepted long covid definition opens door to healthcare opportunities.

Courtney Friedman , Anchor/Reporter

Robert Samarron , Photojournalist

Luis Cienfuegos , Photojournalist

SAN ANTONIO – As COVID-19 swept through the world, it was hard not to notice some people having strange, long-lasting and unexplained symptoms after getting the virus.

KSAT 12 News in San Antonio has done a long list of stories on Long COVID, a serious illness someone gets from the virus that can result in chronic, long-term, debilitating conditions.

Patients all over the US went through hell trying to convince doctors and workplace managers that something was seriously wrong with them.

Now, the National Academy of Medicine finally accepted a paper defining Long COVID, making it clear that it is a physical health condition and allows for equitable treatment.

For patients like 16-year-old Taylor Presson, this is vindication.

Taylor began having bizarre new symptoms that showed up immediately after she got COVID-19 in 2022.

“The fatigue was really extreme. Joint issues. I could roll my ankles just by walking. I have ribs publications, so at any one point I can talk to you and have a rib pressing into my lung. I slept a lot, and I started to have a lot of full-body pain, to the point that when I went to physical therapy. I actually taped both of my ankles, both of my knees and wore ankle braces,” Taylor said.

Her doctors would not relate these issues to COVID-19, calling her debilitating joint issues growing pains.

“Sometimes it was amazement, and sometimes I actually had doctors argue back with me, saying the human body can’t do that because I can dislocate part of my foot,” she said.

Taylor’s mom, Amy Presson, had to advocate for her daughter.

“How do you tell a teenager that this is the life you’re going to live every day with all of this pain and fatigue? And I’m just like, ‘I’m not giving up,’” Amy said.

So they jumped from specialist to specialist.

“Trying to have your symptoms believed. I know she would come home and just cry,” Amy said.

However, those tears dried up when they met Dr. Monica Verduzco-Gutierrez from UT Health San Antonio, who listened to their story and diagnosed Taylor with Long COVID.

Gutierrez is a professor and chair of the Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation at UT Health San Antonio. She runs the institution’s Long COVID clinic .

She is one of the world’s leading experts on Long COVID, which is why she was one of just 20 people who spent the last year and a half putting a paper together describing the illness.

More than 1,300 people contributed to the definition, and Gutierrez’s team put that all together.

“We got input from also stakeholders. We made sure that the patient’s voice was heard, and a caregiver’s voice was heard. Other agencies had to be heard in making this definition right,” Gutierrez said.

The National Academy of Medicine, directed by Health and Human Services, approved the paper, defining Long COVID and acknowledging it as an official condition.

“Finally, you’re no longer being told that’s not possible or you’re wrong,” Taylor said.

Gutierrez said it’s crucial to note that Long COVID can come from even the mildest versions of COVID-19.

“Some didn’t know they had COVID. Maybe they got sick and people around them had COVID. So, you can kind of just assume that they probably had it, and so these symptoms might be related to Long COVID,” she said.

Gutierrez knows first hand.

“Mine was literally like sniffles. It felt like allergies, and then I got Long COVID,” Gutierrez said.

Part of her passion is that she’s also a patient. Her main symptom has been severe fatigue.

“I could easily, before, go run a half marathon. Then I would go and run three miles and then not be able to run or anything for days and be very exhausted from that. The other thing was having palpitations or having heart rate changes. I also had really bad migraines and also was getting really bad hives and rashes,” Gutierrez said.

The paper she helped write lists over 200 symptoms that could be included in a Long COVID diagnosis.

The main symptoms include:

• Autoimmune disorders like pots
• Heart problems
• Lung issues
• Dementia onset

The condition’s designation is a huge deal for the medical community, considering it can be confusing to doctors when a patient has multiple, seemingly unrelated symptoms.

Gutierrez said all organs can be affected. The theory is that inflammation causes all issues in some way.

That’s where the next step comes in: training medical professionals to spot these symptoms and immediately refer them to a Long COVID specialist.

“So now how do we get it to the people at the front lines to primary care, for their clinicians to understand the definition. Hopefully, we start teaching about it more in medical schools and residencies,” Gutierrez said.

She said the hardest part will be speeding up the education and dissemination process, which can take years.

Less than a year ago, KSAT went along with Gutierrez to one of her Long COVID therapy sessions -- one that she also prescribes to her patients.

It’s called flow therapy, and it is typically used for heart patients.

It helps blood flow through the body from the legs all the way up, and it’s helped Gutierrez immensely.

It has helped give her more energy, which means she can work on the paper and see her patients.

The therapy Taylor Presson called a Godsend is constant physical therapy.

“I haven’t taped my knees in probably over six months. I haven’t worn ankle braces in about a year,” she said.

Seeing her now, you’d never know she has Long COVID.

This girl is the busiest teenager we’ve ever met.

“A usual day, I wake up at about 5 a.m. because I have to be at school at 6 a.m. to be an athletic trainer because we just finished with spring football right before school ended. Then I have my usual school day, which includes doing two college courses. Then, after school, l become Pep officer, where this coming year I’m going to help lead a team of over 100 ladies,” Taylor said.

The problem with therapy is that it costs money, and for years, most Long COVID therapies haven’t been covered by insurance.

Many debilitated patients also have had issues getting on disability.

Gutierrez and Pressons hope that now changes with this official medical recognition.

“There was a report also made to the Social Security Administration to say, ‘OK, these are the 200-plus symptoms. They can be debilitating in adults and children,’” Gutierrez said.

When more of these diagnoses are finally made, there will need to be more places for patients to go.

There are only about 40 Long COVID clinics in the U.S.

“That’s not even one per state,” Gutierrez said. “There needs to be more.”

Luckily, Gutierrez runs one at UT Health San Antonio, but the waitlist is not short.

Years ago, when KSAT started interviewing local Long COVID patients, they were waiting up to six months.

Now, thankfully, it’s dropped to about two months.

Gutierrez said UT Health now also has a grant to make their clinic a one-stop-shop.

“Meaning like when you come to see me, that also there might be a physical therapist that’s there, or there might be the pulmonologist that’s there if you need that. So there isn’t so much wait time to get to the next specialist that they need to see,” Gutierrez said.

Meanwhile, the other solution Gutierrez needs to see is more research on Long COVID.

She and her colleagues want to figure out, for example, if people with certain genes are more at risk.

Amy’s husband (Taylor’s dad) also has Long COVID, but sadly has not responded to any treatments.

“His symptoms, dizziness, fatigue. He had lots of falls, had to start using mobility devices, cane, walker, a standard wheelchair. And just recently, she ordered him a custom wheelchair because he can’t even sit upright and hold his neck up. He has such extreme muscle weakness that he has to be fully reclined,” Amy said.

So, while the whole Presson family continues to fight, Taylor wants the world to know, “It really can happen to anybody of any age.”

“It doesn’t matter if you’re young or old, healthy or not, woman or man,” Gutierrez said.

If you’re having trouble getting a diagnosis on some seemingly random symptoms, tell your doctor about Long COVID, get some tests run, and see a specialist.

You can call UT Health’s Long COVID clinic at 210-450-6470 or head to their website .

Copyright 2024 by KSAT - All rights reserved.

About the Authors

Courtney friedman.

Courtney Friedman anchors KSAT’s weekend evening shows and reports during the week. Her ongoing Loving in Fear series confronts Bexar County’s domestic violence epidemic. She joined KSAT in 2014 and is proud to call the SA and South Texas community home. She came to San Antonio from KYTX CBS 19 in Tyler, where she also anchored & reported.

Robert Samarron

Recommended Videos

Leny Yoro undergoing Manchester United medical ahead of signing five-year contract

Lille centre-back Leny Yoro is undergoing a medical at Manchester United ahead of signing a five-year contract, with the option of an additional year, at the Premier League club.

The 18-year-old decided on Tuesday night to join United in a transfer with a maximum valuation of €70million, which includes add-ons.

Advertisement

An agreement between the clubs on an initial €62m (£52m; $67.9m) fee was reached last week — however Yoro still needed to accept the switch at that stage.

His original preference was to join Real Madrid but they have so far shown no indication of paying the price that United and Lille settled on.

That led the Ligue 1 side to strongly favour a deal with United for Yoro, who they would rather sell this summer than risk losing him as a free agent when his existing contract expires in June 2025.

The teenage France youth international has warmed to the idea of moving to Old Trafford and the latest developments are a major step forward in the situation, but there is still work to be done.

If all goes to plan, United will secure their primary target to bolster in defence and a player regarded across the game as being a generational talent.

Leny Yoro, 18, the defender lots of Europe's biggest clubs are pursuing

The Premier League team maintain their admiration for options such as Matthijs de Ligt of Bayern Munich and Everton ’s Jarrad Branthwaite , although a further arrival is likely to depend on departures to create finance and squad space.

Other interested parties including Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool have been pursuing Yoro’s services, though his initial choice of Real Madrid appeared to have made this a one-horse race.

Regardless, United persisted and while the door has remained ajar they applied intensive efforts to lure him to the north west of England. Barring a late and unexpected turn of events, that mission is now close to coming to fruition.

Yoro similarities to Van Dijk

Analysis by tactics writer Anantaajith Raghuraman

Yoro is a throwback defender in some respects, due to his tendency to operate as the last man in Lille’s defence.

While he stays deeper, Yoro is agile and reads danger well, akin to Liverpool’s centre-back and captain Virgil van Dijk .

Given his age and the areas he typically occupies on the pitch, it is not surprising that Yoro tends to err on the side of caution with both his passing and ball carrying.

The advantage he brings is that he has the qualities needed to step into the starting XI but can also be developed for a season before becoming a full-time first-choice.

(Franco Arland/Getty Images)

Get all-access to exclusive stories.

Subscribe to The Athletic for in-depth coverage of your favorite players, teams, leagues and clubs. Try a week on us.

David Ornstein joined The Athletic in October 2019 after 12 years as a sports journalist and correspondent at the BBC. In the role of Football Correspondent, he is responsible for producing exclusive and original stories and interviews, offering unique insight and analysis. He works across video, audio and the written word. Follow David on Twitter @ David_Ornstein