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Almost two years have passed since my last evaluation of Fiverr International Inc. ( NYSE: FVRR ). In that initial analysis done in Aug 2022, I considered Fiverr a great idea for long-term investors who wanted to participate in the digitalization of the freelancing industry, an industry with a secular trend and attractive long-term growth perspectives. Since then, however, the shares have depreciated by c. 25% (c. 40% since the article was published) even though I found them undervalued with an intrinsic value of c. $60 per share. In between, there were tech layoffs, a more severe-than-anticipated post-COVID impact, higher-than-expected rates, and the rise of AI.
However, there are signs that expectations may have bottomed out. Now, the economy seems stronger than anticipated, the number of layoff rounds has decreased, and Fiverr is focusing on boosting spend-per-buyer by going through complex services and an up-market focus. Based on that, this article will share my updated vision of the company, looking at the industry, Fiverrâs latest results, and its outlook.
A disclaimer before starting: while I acknowledge the uncertainty surrounding the process, Iâm a firm believer in the freelancing digitalization story. Therefore, this analysis represents an opportunity for me to revisit my story from a critical perspective. By examining it as objectively as possible, I will try to look for inconsistencies and potential signals that might lead me to reconsider my position.
Being direct and concise, Fiverr has performed significantly worse than expected over the last two years . Back in Aug22, I assumed that after the post-COVID normalization, the digital freelancing industry would re-accelerate its growth at rates, although lower than those reported during COVID-19 (c.50% CAGR from FY19A to FY21A), still quite attractive. However, adopting online freelancing is more difficult than I first thought.
Actual results vs expectations Fiverr (Company financials and own analysis)
In fact, I assumed that Fiverr could make its business grow at a 22.3% CAGR during the next two years. However, the reported revenue CAGR for FY21-23A was just 10.2%, significantly lower than my estimates. Regarding the evolution of both Fiverrâs GMV and its take-rate, GMV grew significantly less than expected, but this was partially offset by a better-than-expected increase in take-rate.
In terms of margins, these were surprisingly better than expected. Considering the current context marked by decelerating revenue growth and a difficult macroeconomic situation, with tight financial conditions especially affecting SMEs, Fiverr demonstrated its capacity to improve its operating margins to investors. The company implemented cost-cutting initiatives, reduced marketing expenses, and generated positive cash flows, albeit with the help of SBC.
In short, these are quite disappointing results that are not explained by a single factor but by a mix of them. While current stock prices are far from the highs of the COVID-19 peak, it is somewhat understandable as the growth component in the valuation of Fiverr is still very significant, and two years have already passed without it.
Having said that, the key question is: does this change my view of its long-term story?
As I explained at the beginning of the article, my narrative of Fiverr revolved around an industry with a secular trend and attractive long-term growth perspectives. Thus, it is essential for me to assess whether this has changed or not over the last two years.
The growth of the industry can be attributed to two key drivers: (i) the digitalization of freelancers, as only digital jobs can be performed throughout these platforms, and (ii) the share of online freelancers compared to traditional workers in the overall workforce.
Regarding the first point, I find no reason to change my belief that the freelancing industry will continue its digitalization process. As is the case of many other industries, the impact of technology is unavoidable. Digital-related jobs will keep advancing over physical ones, and freelancers will need to adapt.
However, with regard to the increase in the share of online freelancers, I believe that we should be cautious when talking about the âseismic shiftâ in the workforce that some of the industry leaders have claimed . As the deceleration post-COVID has demonstrated, this change has resulted to being less structural than expected or at least it is going to take much more time to occur. Although, I believe that this âshiftâ makes sense for both businesses and workers, it still has a lot of barriers to face .
In conclusion, here are two findings from the past two years: (i) it seems that the industryâs potential remains substantial, but (ii) the speed at which it can be exploited may be lower than anticipated.
I previously argued that the net impact of AI on Fiverr has been negative in the short term. However, it is also true that this impact has been limited and that, for the medium/long-term, it represents very good news to the extent that it is clear evidence of its business model being technology-agnostic. The core idea is to understand that the platform is not dependent on any technology but on the growth of online/digital freelancers. There might be temporary turbulences from technology disruptions like AI, but as soon as supply adapts again to market demands, growth will follow.
This fact, which, I think, has not been well tackled by Fiverrâs management, is key to arguing that the long-term story is still strong and valid.
After tackling the industryâs long-term trend, it is time to revisit Fiverrâs intrinsic valuation. To do that, I will focus on the following:
Long-term sustainable operating margins.
Consistent with my overall view, I limited Fiverrâs TAM to the size of the current freelancing market, measured as the total dollar earned in revenue in 2023 by independent professionals. According to the Company, this figure amounted to $191 billion in the US .
Using a back-of-the-envelope calculation and assuming the US represents roughly c.80% of the worldâs freelancing market, I get to a total TAM of $239 billion. Considering Fiverrâs reported GMV of $1.1b in FY23A, that would imply its current market share is around 0.5%.
Fiverr's TAM estimation (Company filings and own analysis)
From FY23A onwards, I will assume a constant annual growth rate of 4% to account for GDP growth and inflation.
Once the TAMâs size and its growth rate have been projected, the next step is to estimate Fiverrâs future growth. For that, I will estimate its future market share and its revenue share.
Market share: I assume that after some years of post-COVID digestion, the freelancing industry will resume its digitalization process, and Fiverr will benefit from it. I estimate that Fiverrâs market share will continue growing, moving from 0.5% in FY23A to 0.8% in FY28E and up to 1.3% in FY30E. This would imply Fiverr's GMV to report a c.15% CAGR over the next 10 years, which seems reasonable to me given the current stage of the industry .
To ensure consistency, I propose one combination of "spend per client" and "# of clients" KPIs aligned with the previously stated assumptions about Fiverr's future market share.
Fiverr's projected market share (Fiverr's projected market share)
This combination assumes that due to Fiverrâs strategy of going upmarket, Spend-per-Buyer will increase at a 13% CAGR over the next decade, increasing from $278 to $964. While this represents significant growth, it is still below Upworkâs ( UPWK ) current average ratio of c. $4,700k per client . Similarly, the number of clients will increase at a 1.6% CAGR over the same period from 4.1m to 4.8m.
Please note that this is just one possible scenario and that the core idea is that Fiverrâs penetration within the freelancing market will increase over time.
Revenue share: to estimate Fiverrâs future revenues, it is necessary to make an assumption about the evolution of its take-rate.
Fiverr's take-rate evolution (Company filings and own analysis)
While Fiverr has successfully increased its take rate over the historical period, the growth in the large-client segment, which presumably has lower take-rate, will likely push this KPI down in the medium to long term. Consequently, I assume a progressive decline over the period from 31.9% to 30%.
Fiverr's projected take-rate (Company filings and own analysis)
The final result is a topline growing at a c. 14% CAGR over the next decade. This would exceed industry growth of 4% CAGR, thanks to the increase in the penetration of online freelancing.
Fiverr's projected revenue growth rate (Company filings and own analysis)
As explained at the beginning of the article, as the economy recovers and Fiverr's focus on boosting spend-per-buyer begins to pay off, revenue growth will start to trend up.
My narrative considers Fiverr as a scalable, capital-light business model. Consequently, as the business grows, its margins will benefit from low direct costs and operating leverage. Nevertheless, this improvement will take time, and it will be directly related to revenue growth.
For our valuation purposes, we estimate operating margins will steadily improve, reaching levels of 22.5% over revenue in the long term. Even though this may be at the lower end compared to more mature software businesses, it should be considered the early stage of the industry in which revenue growth should be prioritized, requiring significant reinvestment levels.
As already explained, Fiverr has demonstrated it can adapt its business to the current industry context. In addition, it has a capital-light business model with no significant working capital needs and no need for high-value physical assets.
Consequently, Fiverrâs current net cash position of c. $200m as of Mar 24 allows the Company to properly manage its future operating needs. Unless there is a significant growth acceleration or a drastic change in its stock compensation strategy, there should be no further funding needs.
Based on my narrative, I arrived at an intrinsic value of $46.5 per share, which is lower than the $60.8 per share I estimated in my previous valuation almost two years ago, on Aug 10, 2022. As explained before, this results from updating my estimates based on Fiverrâs actual results.
Fiverr's updated valuation (Company filings and own analysis)
Fiverr is an example of a story-driven valuation in which small differences in estimated probabilities can cause significant differences in prices. Consequently, given the early stage of the company and the industry, downside risks are mostly concentrated in factors that may change the long-term narrative.
Fiverr's inability to grow up-market, the impact of AI (already commented), regulatory issues, or higher-than-expected competition from the big-tech or specialized platforms are some examples of downside risks that should be monitored when investing in this company.
Nevertheless, as Fiverr continues to grow, the risk of a complete failure diminishes. That's why, compared to our initial valuation on Aug 22, we have assumed a 0% probability of failure.
In my view, the long-term narrative of Fiverr continues to hold, despite the fact that the results of the last two years might suggest. I believe these are affected by temporary problems, and I found no fundamental reasons to make me change my view. I still consider that the freelancing industry will continue its digitalization process and that Fiverr is well-positioned to benefit from it.
Looking at Upworkâs results, Fiverrâs main competitor, one could infer that it is a widespread problem as, although with exceptions explained by their different go-to-market approach, both Fiverr and Upworkâs actual results and 2024 outlook look very similar.
Consequently, my conclusion is that if you are a long-term, diversified investor who believes that the online freelancing industry will continue growing, Fiverr still represents a very well-balanced risk/reward stock to invest in. The current stock price offers an attractive opportunity with high optionality to be successful in a growing market with immense potential.
This article was written by
Analystâs Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of FVRR, UPWK either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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5 ways ai can help in your job search.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become a game-changer in many fields, and job searching is no exception.
In fact, a recent survey found that almost half of all job seekers are using AI in their job hunt.
Leveraging AI tools and applications can significantly enhance your job search efforts, making the process more efficient and tailored to your specific needs.
So, here five ways AI can assist you in your job search and move you closer to landing the role you want.
Improve your cover letter
Crafting a compelling cover letter is crucial for making a strong first impression on potential employers.
AI-powered tools like Grammarly and Cover Letter Builder can help you create personalized and persuasive cover letters that highlight your unique skills and experiences.
These tools use algorithms to analyze the job description and suggest relevant keywords and phrases that align with the role.
In addition to keyword optimization, AI can also provide insights into the tone and structure of your cover letter, ensuring it resonates with hiring managers.
For instance, AI can suggest a more engaging opening line, recommend specific achievements to highlight, and offer advice on how to close your letter effectively.
Todayâs nyt âstrandsâ hint, spangram and answers for friday, july 5, wbc expels ryan garcia after racist rant on x spaces.
By using AI to refine your cover letter, you can present a polished and professional document that increases your chances of standing out.
Optimize your LinkedIn profile
Your LinkedIn profile is often the first place recruiters look to understand your professional background, and AI can be instrumental in optimizing your profile to attract the right attention.
AI-driven platforms like LinkedIn Resume Builder and Jobscan can analyze your profile and provide recommendations on how to improve various sections, from your headline and summary to your skills and endorsements.
These tools can even suggest industry-specific keywords that make your profile more discoverable in recruiter searches.
Some AI applications can also benchmark your profile against top profiles in your field, offering tailored advice on how to enhance your online presence.
For example, AI might recommend highlighting specific programming languages or projects that are trending within the sector.
AI tools can also analyze your network and suggest potential connections that could be beneficial for your career growth.
By leveraging these insights, you can expand your professional network strategically, connecting with influencers and decision-makers in your industry.
Leveraging AI tools and applications can significantly enhance your job search efforts.
Practice interview questions
Preparing for interviews can be daunting, especially when it comes to anticipating the questions you'll face.
AI-powered interview preparation tools like Interviewing.io and Pramp can simulate real interview scenarios, providing you with common questions and personalized feedback based on your responses.
These tools often use natural language processing (NLP) to assess your answers, offering suggestions on how to improve your responses and even your body language and tone of voice.
For example, if you are preparing for a technical interview, AI tools can generate specific coding problems or technical questions relevant to your field.
They can then evaluate your responses and provide detailed feedback, helping you identify areas for improvement.
By practicing with AI, you can build confidence and improve your performance in actual interviews.
Write better follow-up and thank you emails
Communication with potential employers doesn't end with the application â sending well-crafted follow-up and thank you emails is essential for maintaining a professional image and demonstrating your interest in the position.
AI writing tools like ChatGPT can help you draft these emails by suggesting appropriate content and ensuring your messages are concise and impactful.
For instance, AI can analyze the context of your previous communications and suggest personalized follow-ups that address specific points discussed in your interview.
This can include thanking the interviewer for their time, reiterating your interest in the role, and highlighting how your skills and experiences align with the companyâs needs.
By using AI to craft these communications, you can ensure that each email reflects your professionalism and enthusiasm for the role.
Automate your job application process
The job application process can be time-consuming, especially when applying to multiple positions.
AI can streamline this process by automating repetitive tasks, such as filling out application forms and submitting resumes.
AI-powered job search platforms like ZipRecruiter and LinkedIn Job Search can scan thousands of job listings to find those that match your skills and preferences, saving you hours of manual searching.
Some advanced tools can even automatically tailor your resume for each application, highlighting the most relevant experiences and skills.
For instance, if a job posting emphasizes project management experience, the AI can rearrange your resume to highlight your project management roles and achievements prominently.
By automating these tasks, you can focus more on networking and preparing for interviews, ultimately enhancing your job search efficiency.
Integrating AI into your job search can provide numerous advantages, from improving your cover letter and LinkedIn profile to enhancing your interview preparation and automating the application process.
By leveraging these AI tools, you can navigate the job market more effectively and increase your chances of securing your desired position.
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COMMENTS
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12. Keep your resume short and highlight the most relevant aspects. 13. Don't forget to proofread your resume for errors. 14. Save your resume in standard formats only. Land your dream job with these resume-writing tips. 1. Choose the right resume format for your industry.
Tip: Have a niche. While many resume writers write general resumes, it could help to specialize in a niche, such as writing only resumes for accounting, legal, engineering, IT, medical field, etc (depending on your experience). There are some terms that are specific to each industry. Being familiar with those terms will give you an edge.
Overall, Gill Scott offers a complete and personalized service that aims to increase your chances of landing your dream job. 9. Expert Resume. Expert Resume offers comprehensive resume writing services on the Fiverr platform, designed to help job seekers stand out in the highly competitive job market.
United States. 5. Excellent responsiveness and timeliness of delivery. Great formatting and design of Cover Letter and Resume. Impressive work. I would definitely use the services of this seller again in the future if more work needed. Definitely recommend the quality of this seller's work. 8 months ago. f.
Best resume help freelance services online. Outsource your resume help project and get it quickly done and delivered remotely online
On Fiverr, you can find a resume writing service to fit any budget. You can also find a resume writer who can work with you on just about any deadline. Turnaround times range from 12 hours up to multiple weeks. Make sure to read the fine print before signing up for a service that appears affordable, but becomes the most expensive after multiple ...
1. Stay Organized with Columns. Organize relevant information into clear and separate columns. Dedicate separate sections for education, work experience, and contact information. That way, agents and recruiters can seamlessly evaluate your resume and pick out relevant information. For example, this resume template from Indeed has separate areas ...
2. Create achievement statements based on what those companies are looking for. Take a job description and then tie relevant outcomes from your experience to show what you've done around things they are looking for. 3. Use ATS friendly resume templates (word docs); no graphic templates, columns, charts, etc. Tammy: The resume must be targeted ...
6..Make your resume legible. Again, this may seem simple, but you don't want to make a potential HR director toss your resume because it's in a tiny font or cluttered with impossibly narrow margins. Make your writing a standard, readable font (no smaller than 11 point) with one-inch margins. 7.Create a narrative.
Resume writing and design may not be one of them - and that's okay. There are professionals to help you with any resume concerns, from rewriting to redesigning your format. Consider hiring a Fiverr resume writer right here. Your resume is the first thing potential employers will look at, and you owe it to yourself to get it right. 15.
Fiverr's freelancers can help you write and design resumes that will highlight your skill set and experience. This way, you get noticed by potential employers and get invited to a lot of interviews. Source. 2. Searching and Applying For Dream Jobs. Scouring the job boards can take several hours per week.
6 Resume Design Tips and Examples. If you have mediocre design skills, it can be difficult to design your own resume. To help you get started, here are some tips to help you out. Tips to Refresh Your Resume and Land Your New Job. Whichever stage you are in your career, refreshing your resume is one of the best things you can do to land a new job.
This service provides: A complete upgrade of your resume/cv with achievement-based jobs content, grammar, flow, syntax, and keyword optimization for ATS. Powerful professional bio-intro to immediately grab attention on your resume/cv. Complete resume/cv reformatting to a clean, professional design praised by industry executives and HR managers.
The company is based in Tel Aviv, Israel and has offices in New York City. Fiverr is a freelance services marketplace that helps connect businesses and individuals providing service in 300+ categories. Resume writing and resume building are just two of those categories, but the company is definitely worth taking a look at.
I understand Fiverr Pro is extremely useful for folks who are into content writing, software engg. etc. Mainly because in such niches there are buyers who are willing to spend a big amount of money per gig. But am thinking if it's useful for someone who is in resume writing. I don't know if people have a budget to spend 200+ Euros on a resume.
I would recommend reading the guide in the wiki section of this sub called Before Hiring a Writer. It can help you avoid a number of pitfalls. I would personally recommend avoiding Fiverr. LinkedIn by a million lightyears. I was going to overhaul my resume, but I was wondering which place would be better to get my resume made from, would fiver ...
Dear u/TimidTorso!. Thanks for posting on r/resumes!Please view the Wiki Guidelines to learn about proper post etiquette and remember to add flair to your post.. This subreddit and its huge community following (300K+ strong!) are intended to help you optimize your resume through user feedback, an extensive history of user posts, and the wiki.
WARNING: We have noticed a recent uptick in spam for task sites like Taskrabbit or Fiverr. NEVER hire someone who directly messages you to solicit services based on your resume post. In-demand and high-quality resume writers do not need to seek out new business through farming r/resume. If you have any questions, feel free to DM the mods.
306. Posted July 19, 2017. Hello guys! đ. I just wanted to share my experience in order to help others who are confused about whether Fiverr experience should be added to your CV or not. I recently got hired into a multinational company in the field of digital marketing precisely thanks to my work on Fiverr.
Posted July 2, 2020. One of the buyers have asked me to share my resume to decide whether to buy my gig or not. I have a gig on IT solutions (computer programming like Java, Python, Database etc). Buyer's requirement was to hire someone to train his employees on these skills. Is it safe (I mean abide to Fiverr terms and condition) to share my ...
Fiverr's official blog that focuses on entrepreneurs and freelancers actionable tips, strategies and case studies. Please note: This website includes an accessibility system. Press Control-F11 to adjust the website to the visually impaired who are using a screen reader; Press Control-F10 to open an accessibility menu.
I kindly request permission from a Fiverr staff member to allow me create a new account on my device and have another opportunity to use Fiverr responsibly. I assure you that I will review the Fiverr TOS thoroughly to ensure compliance with all policies. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
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Fiverr's projected market share (Fiverr's projected market share) This combination assumes that due to Fiverr's strategy of going upmarket, Spend-per-Buyer will increase at a 13% CAGR over the ...
Here's 5 ways AI can help you navigate the job market land your next role. ... AI-driven platforms like LinkedIn Resume Builder and Jobscan can analyze your profile and provide recommendations on ...
McDonald's is working with several community colleges to build a path for converting on-the-job skills, like safe food handling or customer service, into credit toward degrees in culinary arts ...