vision of india in 2050 essay

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UPSC Essay: My Vision of India in 2050 A.D

India is one of the world’s oldest civilizations, with a rich cultural heritage and tremendous diversity across its people. As a developing country with the world’s second largest population, India faces various social, economic and environmental challenges. Yet India also holds great promise, given its large, young population and rapid economic growth. By imagining India in 2050, three decades from now, we can envision the possibilities for India to evolve into a prosperous, secure and sustainable society.

In 2050, I envision an India that has effectively addressed issues like poverty, corruption and pollution to become a global leader in technology, education and sustainable development. The India of 2050 will be more urban while also preserving its villages. With economic opportunities reaching small towns and rural areas, the gap between urban and rural India will shrink. India can also build more livable smart cities rooted in community and nature, improving the quality of life across urban spaces.

In 2050, India will have significantly reduced income inequality and poverty through sound policies focused on health, education and empowering women. Even its poorest communities will have the resources they need to thrive. Rural India will exemplify Mahatma Gandhi’s vision of local self-reliance and sustainability. Gandhi stated that “The future depends on what we do in the present.” India’s current investments in human development will shape future prosperity. For instance, Amartya Sen’s capabilities theory will inform policies to uplift human freedom and potential. Sen notes that “India has a long history of skepticism about maxims of prosperity without freedom.” Development policies will enable more equitable opportunity.

India will transform into a knowledge economy built on technology, medicine and creative arts. IT exports now account for billions in revenue. Building on successes in information technology, India can also lead in biotech, renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and decentralised governance innovations. Indian research institutions will pioneer advances in science and technology to address society’s grand challenges, as envisioned by former president A.P.J. Abdul Kalam: “A land of enlightened people, economically prosperous, socially just and politically democratic.”

Urbanization will increase in sustainable ways, with over half India’s population in cities integrated with nature. Architect Balkrishna Doshi, awarded India’s first Pritzker Prize in 2018, has demonstrated how urban built environments can harmonize contemporary and traditional designs through open, human-centric spaces. Such principles will guide urban planning, along with green technologies like AI and nanotech. Philosopher Jiddu Krishnamurti noted that “It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.” India’s future cities will retain connections to culture, nature and spirituality by design.

Rural India will share in economic advancement through networks of villages with thriving, self-sufficient local economies. Social entrepreneur Dr. Bindeshwar Pathak’s work has demonstrated how village cooperatives and local support can eradicate persistent problems like manual scavenging. Such inclusive business models will be widely replicated. Entrepreneurs will also prosper by leveraging renewable energy tech and selling products online. E.F. Schumacher’s “Buddhist economics” concept of ethical, cooperative business will influence economic patterns.

India’s diverse religious and ethnic communities will make progress toward harmony, despite occasional tensions. While Hindu nationalism has stirred recent controversy, India’s founding vision of secularism, pluralism and equality remains strong. Kerala’s history demonstrates peaceful coexistence between Hindus, Christians and Muslims. The Hindu majority will collaborate with Muslim, Sikh, Christian and other minority groups to nurture interfaith dialogue and cultivate a more tolerant society. Dalit advocacy against caste discrimination will also have achieved greater social equality. As Rabindranath Tagore expressed about Indian nationalism, “The idea of India is against the intense consciousness of separateness.” The India of 2050 will reflect that universalism.

India will balance rapid growth with environmental protection. It will meet climate targets through renewable energy and reforestation. Following Wangari Maathai’s principle that “We owe it to ourselves and to the next generation to conserve the environment,” India’s 2050 economy will operate sustainably within planetary boundaries. Inspiring ecological efforts like Rajendra Singh’s water conservation that turned parched rural Rajasthan into lush green will be replicated. India’s environmental stewardship will set an example.

India will invest heavily in education at all levels to build a knowledge-based society. The country’s demographic dividend gives it the world’s largest population under 25. Ensuring quality education and skill training for youth can secure India’s economic future. Primary school enrollment will be near 100 percent with equal access for girls and boys. Industrialist Ratan Tata has funded programs enabling youth in remote areas to connect with educators worldwide. Such initiatives will bridge the rural-urban divide. Massive open online courses will provide free access to higher education and vocational training for millions. Educational advances now will shape India’s future human capital.

India in 2050 can become a prosperous, environmentally sustainable society by leveraging its cultural strengths and human capabilities. Alleviating poverty, empowering women, developing green technologies, expanding access to education and health care, nurturing local businesses, and supporting ethical policies will help India grow in an inclusive manner. India will play a leadership role in global development while drawing lessons from its rich philosophical tradition to evolve a holistic vision of human progress. With mindful long-term policies and collective effort, India can manifest an inspiring vision of just, equitable and sustainable progress.

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My Vision For India In 2050 Essay In 500+ Words

Hello Friend, In this post “ Essay On My Vision For India In 2050 In 500+ Words “, We will read about My Vision For India In 2050 as an Essay in detail. So… 

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Essay On My Vision For India In 2050 In 500+ Words

Slogan:- “Everywhere is happiness, people love each other, India free of hunger & fear, It is the vision of my India 2050”.

Introduction:-

Developing to develop it is the journey of a nation. I to me and my to our is the key of mission 2050. Currently, India is celebrating its seventy-five years of independence.

Everyone has dreams to make the country big and democratically successful. A country where there is equality in all areas and for all genders it witnesses progress.

Like others, I also have a dream for my India and the way it should be so I can proud to live and the coming generations too. Our country in 2050 will be what we create today.

The year 2050 will be the landmark year to look at India through the prisms of development, growth, gender, equality, employment, and other factors.

What we dream is what we see, similarly, how we visualize India of 2050 will determine the revolutions we will adopt over the next twenty-five years.

One wants to see India free from poverty, unemployment, malnutrition, corruption, and other social evils. over the next twenty-five years, India should transform into a powerful nation both internally and externally.

Over this, our foremost target as a developing nation should be to work on economic fronts and make our economy stronger by bringing in some major reforms.

Besides the economic sphere, there is a need to work towards gender equality and providing equal opportunities for all irrespective of their background.

The next twenty-five years will be extremely crucial not just for our country but also for us as citizens of India.

Paragraph On My Vision For India @ 100 years

Essay On My Vision For India @ 100 years In English

My vision for India in 2050:-

The India of my vision where women are safe and walk freely on road. Also, It will be a place where there is freedom of equality to all and everyone. It would be a place where there is no discrimination of caste, color, gender, social or economic status, and race.

I see it as a place that sees an abundance of development and growth.

Women Empowerment:-

There is a lot of discrimination against women. But, still, the women are sleeping out of their houses and making a mark on different fields and on society. My vision for India in 2050 is to become women more powerful and self-dependent.

we have to work hard to change the mind of society. My vision is India is a country that sees women as its assets, not as liabilities. Also, I want to place women on an equal level as men.

Education:-

Government work to promote education. but there are many people who do not realize its true importance. the India of my vision in 2050 will be a place where education will be mandatory for all.

Caste Discrimination:-

India got independence in 1947 still we are not able to get complete independence from caste, religion, and creed discrimination. My vision for India in 2050 is where there is no discrimination of any kind.

Employment opportunities:-

There are many educated people in India . but, due to corruption and many other reasons they are unable to get a decent job. My vision for India in 2050 will be a place where the deserving candidate will get the job first rather than reserved candidates.

Health and Fitness:-

My vision for India in 2050 is to improve the health system by providing good facilities to people. people are also aware of health to fitness.

Corruption:-

Corruption is one of the major reasons that are hindering the growth of the nation. So, my vision for India is in 2050 where the minister and official are dedicated to their work and wholly for the development of the country.

Conclusion:- {My Vision For India In 2050 Essay}

The India of my vision in 2050 will be an ideal country, where every citizen will be equal. Also, there is no discrimination of any type. In addition, It will be a place where women are seen as equals to men and respected equally.

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Essay on My Vision for India in 600+ Words

• Updated on  
• Apr 10, 2024

Essay on My Vision for India: India, that is, Bharat, is the largest democracy in the world. Up until 1947, India was a British colony. On August 15th, 1947, a new India was born. Though drained and divided, India was desperate to make it on its own. Today, India has the 5th largest economy, the 4th largest military strength, and is home to over 1.4 billion people. 

Recently, the Indian Government launched Vision @2047 to make India a global economic power by 2047. The tagline for this scheme was ‘BRINGING CITIZENS AND GOVERNMENT CLOSER’. 

Table of Contents

• 1 Economic Development in India
• 2 India’s Geopolitical Relations
• 3 Technology
• 4 Conclusion

Quick Read: English Essay Topics

Economic Development in India

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released in its 2023 report that India, along with China is likely to drive half of global growth in the coming years. This will be in stark contrast to just a tenth of the growth for the USA and Europe combined. It means India and China will together pave the way for a global economic rebound. 

In 2023, the Indian economy will retain its crown as a bright spot, and it will remain the fastest-growing economy in the world. The American economy, on the other hand, grew by just 1.4% and that of China by 5.2%.

In the post-pandemic period, the Indian economy’s growth projection was 6.1%. This is a little less than what it was in 2022, 6.8%, but India is still the fastest-growing economy in the world, and the Indian Prime Minister is determined to make India the 3rd largest economy in the next 4 to 5 years. 

India’s Geopolitical Relations

Right after WWII, the world was divided into two blocs; the Capitalist and the Socialist. However, India successfully navigated the Cold War and became a political force for decolonization. India liberated Bangladesh in 1971, reached out to Africa, successfully dehydrated Israel and Palestine, and struck strategic partnerships with the Gulf.

Today, world powers see India as an important partner, a leading voice in multilateral forums. India has become the face of peace and the loudest cheerleader of counter-terrorism. 

Today’s India is capable of standing for itself. India has taught the world tolerance and universal acceptance. During the nationalist movements in the 1920s and 1930s, India was raising the banner of Swaraj, or Self-Government. However, Winston Churchill, the former British PM, dismissed India’s experience with self-government, believing India was socially diverse. 

He said, ‘India is merely a geographical expression. It is no more a single country than the equator.’ He was convinced that independent India wouldn’t be able to stay together. Well, Churchill was wrong. India remains united and grows stronger. India’s success as a secular state has surprised many.

Quick Read: Essay on Digital India

Just 17 years after Independence, India decided to go into space. The Indian National Committee for Space Research (INCO SPAR) was set up, and in 1963, India launched its first rocket from a town called Thumba, Kerala. The rocket parts were transported on bicycles and bullock carts.

On August 23, 2023, Indian space programs reached a new height with the successful landing of Chandryaan 3 on the lunar surface. Today, India is a well-established space power, it has reached the Red Planet and is unfurling the tri-color in space to mark its 75 years of independence. 

India was also the first country outside the UNSC permanent members to successfully test a nuclear bomb. And India did this despite the world’s best efforts. The American secret agency was spying on us using a satellite, and they even killed an Indian scientist to roadblock the mission. On May 18, 1974, India took the world by surprise. It became a nuclear power by successfully testing its first nuclear bomb. The operation was named ‘Smiling Buddha’.

This is today’s India, and my vision for India is far from done. India has achieved a lot in its 75 years since independence, all thanks to education and democracy. For India, its next milestone is even greater than before, as our Prime Minister aims to make India a global economic power. It can be done only when the government and the people come together with just one goal in mind; Making India great.

Quick Read: Essay on Viksit Bharat

Ans: India, that is, Bharat, is the largest democracy in the world. Up until 1947, India was a British colony. On August 15, 1947, a new India was born. Though drained and divided, India was desperate to make it on its own. Today, India has the 5th largest economy, the 4th largest military strength, and is home to over 1.4 billion people.  Recently, the Indian Government launched Vision @2047 to make India a global economic power by 2047. The tagline for this scheme was ‘BRINGING CITIZENS AND GOVERNMENT CLOSER’. 

Ans: On August 23, 2023, Indian space programmes reached a new height, with the successful landing of Chandryaan 3 on the lunar surface. Today, India is a well-established space power, it has reached the Red Planet and is unfurling the tri-color in space to mark its 75 years of independence. The Indian National Committee for Space Research (INCO SPAR) was set up and in 1963, India launched its first rocket from a town called Thumba, Kerala. The rocket parts were transported on bicycles and bullock carts.

Ans: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released in its 2023 report that India, along with China is likely to drive half of global growth in the coming years. This will be in stark contrast to just a tenth of the growth for the USA and Europe combined. It means India and China will together pave the way for a global economic rebound.  In 2023, the Indian economy will retain its crown as a bright spot, and it will remain the fastest-growing economy in the world. The American economy, on the other hand, grew by just 1.4% and that of China, by 5.2%.

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With an experience of over a year, I've developed a passion for writing blogs on wide range of topics. I am mostly inspired from topics related to social and environmental fields, where you come up with a positive outcome.

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India Vision 2050: Bharat, a Civilisational Power

This paper presents a Vision of a developed India in 2050. Two objectives drive this vision. One is fast catch-up growth that closes the gap with countries which were at the same stage of development as India in the 1960s & 1970s but have moved ahead since then. An understanding and utilization of global & domestic trends is critical to fast growth, which can be used by Indian government and its people to leapfrog to a better life. The second is equality of opportunity for every Indian citizen based on personal motivation & inherent capabilities. Equal access to quality education, skills, public goods, social and governance services is critical to both these objectives. Provision of social services to 1.6 billion Indians, at the quality available to 1.4 billion citizens of the Developed countries, is only possible in 30 years through comprehensive use of digital systems like e-governance, e-learning, tele-medicine, and artificial intelligence. AI driven expert systems like E-Kautilya, E-Chanakya, E-Manu will drive a transformation in governance. Expert systems like E-Acharya, E-Guru and E-Vaid will drive the transformation in education, skilling, and health services. We envision a Hybrid (Phygital) architecture which marries India’s vast human resources to a pervasive digital infrastructure to accelerate structural transformation and inclusive growth. Government will ensure the provision of hard & soft infrastructure to every habitation in India, develop a policy structure that creates competitive markets in which private entrepreneurs can innovate and thrive, and a welfare system that protects the weak & vulnerable while giving ample scope for civil society to provide a multiplicity of non-marketable services. The key policy & institutional reforms required are also discussed.

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• 05 November 2021

Scientists cheer India’s ambitious carbon-zero climate pledge

• Gayathri Vaidyanathan

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India, the world’s third-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, has pledged to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2070. The ambitious commitment, made on 1 November at the high-stakes COP26 climate meeting in Glasgow, UK, brings India in line with other big emitters, including the United States, China, Saudi Arabia and the European Union, which have made similar promises.

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doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-03044-x

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India’s Next Decade: Some Predictions, Some Speculations

Most of our debates focus on the here and now: issues such as the Covid-19 challenges, border disputes with China, the Agriculture Bills, phone hacking by Pegasus, or the banking sector’s continued bad debt crisis. However, the most important challenges – as well as the most promising opportunities – are what economists call “beyond the horizon” problems. Thanks to our evolution from the reptilian brain and our hardwired survival instinct, we systematically overestimate the magnitude of current challenges and underestimate the challenges that are far away.

This year is the thirtieth anniversary of India’s much vaunted economic reforms. Much has changed since then. In the early decades of independence, India had internalised poverty. In debates whether subsidies or infrastructure should be government priority, because of resource constraints and the zero sum nature of the expenditures, often-times subsidies got priority and long term investments lagged. The “Hindu rate of growth”, which translated to 1.3% per capita growth came to define India’s post-independence performance in early decades, (see Virmani, (2004)) [1] . Today’s India – in its reality and in its aspirations – is dramatically different. Ralph Waldo Emerson famously said: “The years teach much which the days never know.” My corollary: the years hide stories that only decades can tell.

This essay will attempt to look a decade ahead. I will cover a broad range of issues that I believe can be game changers for our country. Navigating these will require not just sound rational analysis, but also political will. And even more, it will require a preparation of society’s diverse constituents. Taken together, these will propel us forward. As we dwell on the decade ahead, it will be useful to recall Abraham Lincoln’s prophetic insight: “The best way to predict your future is to create it.”

1. Operating Leverage of the Indian Consumer Will Be a Potent Force

While there will be inevitable swings in economic conditions, there is a strong unidirectional tailwind that is extremely favourable. I call it the operating leverage of the Indian consumer. For a majority of Indians, out of every Rs 100 of annual income, Rs 80 gets spent on day to day expenses. Only the remaining Rs 20 is discretionary income. If Indian nominal wage growth is 9% [2 ] , which is what the average has been, and if one deducts 4% inflation from this, the real wage growth would be 5%. In real terms, median income increases to Rs 105 annually. However, the median discretionary income goes from Rs 20 to Rs 25; that’s an increase of 25%. We have millions of Indians crossing this threshold, where they have nominal wage growth in the 8-10% range, but in real terms, their discretionary income is growing at 20%.

Business cycles can subdue this trend only somewhat over the short term. Over the medium term, and certainly over the long term, this trend will stay on course. The results of this are quite profound. Here’s a sample: Private general insurers have grown 18.5% and health insurers 21.2% in the decade of 2010-2020 [3] , on the back of increasing market penetration and shift of market share from public sector companies to private insurers because of better quality of their services. Barring the Covid-19 disruption, advertising growth—a direct consumer proxy—has tracked 12% annualised growth over the past decade [4] . Consumer durables have witnessed a 20% growth from 2012-2020. Company-specific numbers show similar trends: Telecom company Jio has grown its wireless subscribers from 186.6 million in end 2017-2018 to 387.5 million at the end of 2019-2020 [5] and its aggressive pricing has made India’s data consumption 11.96GB per subscriber per month on average in 2020 (TRAI, 2020), not just the highest in the world but more than 2x that of the US levels. In the past 20 years, electrical goods company Havells has increased its revenues almost 100x and its profits more than 300x, and as investors have come to realise its potential, its market cap has jumped 6,000x since its listing in 1994. (Just as a fun comparison, since Amazon’s IPO in 1997, its market cap is up 4,000x till date, making Jeff Bezos the richest man in the world.) All of this has one common theme: the Indian consumer. While there is some criticism that Indian purchasing power is limited, effectively, consumer markets are smaller than what top-down analysis shows, and market segments are saturating fast, and my own sense is that there is plenty of headroom. 2030 will see more of the above.

In the top ten industries producing India’s billionaires, the two largest contributors are information technology and pharmaceuticals, both of which are primarily global-contracting sectors.

The mix of India’s billionaires points to the consumer boom. Historically, as domestic markets have been small, exporters have been the darlings of industry. In the top ten industries producing India’s billionaires, the two largest contributors are information technology and pharmaceuticals, both of which are primarily global-contracting sectors. Most of the rest are consumer goods and related sectors: fast moving consumer goods, automotive, food and beverages, textiles and apparel. And in a divergence from its Asian peers, in India, real estate ranks 10 th and infrastructure does not feature on the list at all.

This consumer-centric gravitational pull that one sees in legacy businesses also holds true in the world of disruption. Low penetration levels in most market segments have opened the opportunity for entrepreneurs to launch new products and brands, in online, offline and omni-channel modes. India today has 100 unicorns [6] , and added 3 a month in 2021 [7] . A report by Praxis Global Alliance(2021) is optimistic that India currently has 190 “Soonicorns” which are likely to graduate to Unicorn status by 2025. Fintech happens to be the largest generator of unicorns, followed by retail, online classifieds and travel, education and food, content and gaming. The time taken to reach unicorn-status has shrunk from an average of 7.4 years in 2010 to 2.4 years now, and based on the current trend lines, one can expect 250 unicorns by 2030. My prediction: powered by the domestic consumption boom, the most sought after jobs in 2030 will not be Unilever or Goldman Sachs, which have traditionally ruled Day 1 in top-tier campus recruitments, but in yet to be born, bootstrapped, adrenaline-driven, Unicorn-aspirant startups.

In the consumer sphere, two contra-trends are simultaneously true. New, but traditionally-driven consumer brands continue to create extraordinary wealth. Just look at Vini Cosmetics which makes the Fogg brand of deodorant. Or Pulse in the candy business, started by a true-blooded traditional paan masala company. Or Biba in women’s apparel, Fab India in handwoven garments and home furnishings, Forest Essentials in Ayurveda based skin care, MDH in spices, Veeba in sauces. The list is endless. At the same time, in category after category, digitally native brands are making their mark. Boat’s headphones are a rage with the 20-something crowd. Mama Earth’s skincare products have caught the imagination of young women. Licious found a white space in the meat industry and is attempting to create a direct-to-consumer brand in an otherwise disorganised sector. Country Delight, with its deep supply chains, is disrupting the dairy industry. Pharmeasy, a company we are shareholders in, has built India’s largest online pharmacy, became a Unicorn last year, and is planning an IPO pegged at a $5-6 billion valuation.

India’s disposable income led consumer boom is going to have profound changes in the financial markets as well. Currently as on 30 th Sep 2021, the top seven sectors constituting the Nifty 50 stock market index are financial services (37.23% weightage), information technology (17.41%), oil and gas (12.30%), consumer goods (11.11%), automobile (4.71%), pharma (3.39%), and construction (2.69%) [8] . By 2030, there will be large changes in this composition as the Indian economy evolves. Financial services and oil and gas will reduce their weightage, and consumer goods will clearly gain. A few months ago, Tata Consumer Products replaced Gas Authority of India Limited in the index. And there’s talk that retailer DMart and consumer internet behemoth InfoEdge will soon be included in the index as well. Such changes will affect how India’s savings are eventually invested, creating a positive feedback loop. In more ways than one, this will be the decade of the Indian consumer!

2. Structural Roadblocks and Constraints Will Continue

Offsetting the secular trend of disproportionate increase in disposable income driving consumption-led-growth, there are several challenges that we cannot wish away as a society. We cannot expect government leaders to solve them in the course of the next decade, though we can expect they can be moderated to some degree.

India’s growth will be distorted by the differentials in economic activity in the West and the South as compared to the North and the East.

India’s growth will be distorted by the differentials in economic activity in the West and the South as compared to the North and the East. Already, on average, India’s southern and western states have been growing materially faster than their northern and eastern peers. By 2019, the three richest states in India on an absolute GDP basis were Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat. Then came Uttar Pradesh. When one considers that Uttar Pradesh’s population is 3x that of Gujarat and its economy is similar in size to Gujarat, the story becomes shocking [9] . Per capita income of Gujarat, on the basis of Net State Domestic Product is 3x more than that of UP. Here are some more counter-intuitive statistics: Goa, India’s richest state on a per capita basis is more than 10x richer than Bihar, India’s poorest. Punjab, long considered India’s rich state, currently has a smaller GDP than the split-up states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana individually; even on a per capita basis, it ranks much below Telangana and is neck-to-neck with Andhra Pradesh. Indeed, the future comes slowly, and then suddenly.

This would have at least three implications: Given the vastly different levels of prosperity, it would be difficult to get India’s 4817 legislators – the total number of members of parliament and of the various legislative assemblies – to reach common ground on the way forward for India. Moreover, if one adds the cultural and language differences between the rich and the poor states, the electorate would likely turn inward. The prosperous middle class in, say Tamil Nadu, would wonder why their tax monies are being spent to subsidise the inefficiencies of the masses of Uttar Pradesh. The urban crowds of Bangalore or Pune—fearing risks of squalor and crime—may not take too kindly to the rush of poor migrants from Bihar. Such fault lines have been seen in China and Korea, though these countries created high quality jobs in manufacturing, which is less true in India, and given the linguistic differences, managing these will be a fine art at all levels of the administration.

In the run up to 2030, India’s leaders will have to address the skewed nature of India’s development and will have to counter two fundamental questions, both of which have no correct answer.

India has lifted 271 million people out of poverty in the last decade (between 2006 and 2016) [10] , as per the United Nations Development Programme’s 2019 Multidimensional Poverty Index. This number is sometimes contested because of inaccuracies and lags in Indian economic data. Nonetheless, India’s extraordinary feat in tackling poverty hides many inconsistencies, as has been pointed out by Nobel laureate Amartya Sen and economist Jean Dreze in their earlier book “An Uncertain Glory”. Gender, caste and geographical disparities haunt India’s poor. Like elsewhere in the world, rising inequality is an issue in India. India’s Gini Coefficient – a standard measure of income inequality – is already worrying, especially given our stage of development. However, this picture of inequality is very different from western experience in the past decade, where standards of living for large sections of society have declined as compared to that of their parents. In India and in most developing countries, absolute gains have been across the board, even though uneven.

In the run up to 2030, India’s leaders will have to address the skewed nature of India’s development and will have to counter two fundamental questions, both of which have no correct answer. One is philosophical. The contradiction between liberty and equality – highlighted in Will Durant’s remarkable book “The Lessons of History” – will need to be addressed. The other is political. In a famous interaction between former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and an un-named Chinese minister on the Chinese reform programme, when asked whether it would lead to greater inequality in China, the Chinese minister replied “We would certainly hope so.” Ideologically, I consider myself the right fringe of the left-movement, and would suggest that each one of us, not just political leaders or policy wonks, take a hard, holistic and pragmatic look at this question. 2030 is waiting for our answer.

3. Smart Policy Solutions and a Sense of Ownership Will Be Important

My generation has been fortunate that we started our work life in the aftermath of the 1991 reforms. India’s growth rate quickly got reset to an upward trajectory. As India shed its socialist leanings and internalised the dynamism of free markets, the very definition of the ideological centre in the left-right economic dialogues moved decidedly towards the right. This trajectory has continued under governments of all hues and has been accelerated in the recent policy announcements. Indeed, the debates from thirty years ago seem archaic.

As India shed its socialist leanings and internalised the dynamism of free markets, the very definition of the ideological centre in the left-right economic dialogues moved decidedly towards the right.

As businessmen, we need to benchmark what our economic expectations are. First, we need to anchor it to the reality of the country. Economic theory tells us that growth is investment rate divided by incremental capital output ratio. Both are sticky numbers. India’s investment rate for long stretches has hovered around 30% [11] . The investment rate is strongly correlated to India’s savings rate, which in turn is partly cultural and partly determined by the dependency ratio. Because of our high dependency ratio, our savings rate in the 1960s was almost half of what it is currently. As our savings rate doubled, so did our growth. India’s incremental capital output ratio is about 4 and is inching upwards. Therefore, India’s fighting weight in terms of economic growth is in the range of 7-7.5% and this is what it should strive for.

Second, we have to think probabilistically. We have to imagine scenarios and work with possibilities rather than a deterministic path. India’s growth will fluctuate around this number, and we should not get ecstatic if it goes to 9% briefly or collapses to 4.5% periodically. Both have happened and have invited extreme views. As India’s investment rate has circumstantially fluctuated, we have seen its effect on the GDP figures, most of which is short-lived. To borrow from Rudyard Kipling, we have to learn to meet with Triumph and Disaster, and treat those two impostors just the same!

Third, superficial comparisons with other countries are misleading. For instance, an oft-asked question in business circles is how China managed a spectacular growth rate of 10% for almost two decades. Here’s the answer: In most of that period, China’s savings rate was 45% and its incremental capital output ratio was about 5. The math was simple. Years of sub-par investments fuelled by a debt binge increased the incremental capital output ratio to 7 or more [12] . Growth fell at 6.5%. The magic ended. One should not consider this a failure, but a somewhat natural outcome of the economy maturing.

Fourth, India’s favourable demographic window will create what Charlie Munger calls the “Lollapalooza” effect. Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger coined the term to outline how multiple different tendencies and mental models combine to act in the same direction. Low dependency ratios will fuel a self-reinforcing cycle of savings, investments and growth. A bulge in working age population, which started in 2018 and is expected to last till 2050 [13] , can help turbocharge growth, as happened with many Asian countries in the late 20 th century, which saw near-double digit economic growth for decades. To borrow from astrology, India’s stars are rightly aligned.

If one stays with India’s natural fighting weight in terms of economic growth, in the short to medium term, good governance can change the number by 1%.

Governments matter. In some ways, more than we think. In other ways, less than we think. In the early 1990s, 40.85% [14] of Uttar Pradesh’s population and 22.19% of the combined Andhra Pradesh was below the poverty line. Both were near the bottom of the league tables. Twenty years later in 2011-12, Uttar Pradesh’s poverty rate was 29.43% [15] , while Andhra Pradesh had managed to reduce it to 9.20%. Political entrepreneurship clearly works. On the other hand, in the near term global macro and economic cycles matter more than governance. If one stays with India’s natural fighting weight in terms of economic growth, in the short to medium term, good governance can change the number by 1%. Global conditions—trade barriers, commodity prices, interest rates—can change this by a larger factor. In the long term, as macro-forces cancel each other, global macro goes into the background. What’s left is governance. People often tend to misattribute credit and blame. Political and election cycles, the recurring hum of central government or some state government elections, amplify this trend. So, one request, my friends: don’t focus on 2022 or even 2025, but on 2030!

Optimism is warranted. Here’s a surprising fact from the World Bank: Their “Lived Change Index” uses lifetime per capita GDP to track how much economic change a population has experienced [16] . Over the past three decades, China is an outlier, having delivered 31x, with runner up Poland at 9x, and India comes in 6 th at 5x, ahead of Singapore, Malaysia and Brazil. India needs to continue to play the long game well.

An ascending India of 2030 will act in a versatile manner, have foresight and will shape the global agenda.

At the same time, speed will be of essence. Consider the following world events: coup in Myanmar, power crisis in Texas, Australia vs Facebook, Bitcoin hit $50,000, China banned BBC, NASA landed on Mars, India sent vaccines to many countries, global drop in Covid cases, first US airstrike under Biden. As data researcher Norbert Elekes pointed out, all of these happened in the single month of February 2021. Given this accelerating pace of world events, an ascending India of 2030 will act in a versatile manner, have foresight and will shape the global agenda.

4. The Action Will Be at the Intersection of Politics and Economics

The adage “The economy is too important to be left to economists” is often attributed to Winston Churchill but here I am referring to the seminal book by Robert Reich, well known UC Berkeley academic and former Labour Secretary in the Clinton Administration. He wrote passionately about the role of government in the era of late stage capitalism that we are in. South Korea’s “Miracle on the Han River”, from the early 1960s to the late 1980s, is considered unprecedented in the history of the world, and was led by its outward looking government. China’s transformation was anchored by Deng Xiaoping’s “To be rich is glorious” moment in the late 1970s. Germany, Mexico, Czech Republic, all had similar political champions.

In India, as political power devolves from the centre to the states, governance will become a deeper determinant of success.

In India, as political power devolves from the centre to the states, governance will become a deeper determinant of success. Whether it is managing the government’s precarious finances or streamlining the maze of direct and indirect taxation, whether it is solving the accumulated problems of bad loans on the books of India’s banks or bringing real long-term interest rates down from the high 5% that has haunted Indian business, whether it is navigating the world of trade agreements or strategising as multinationals ponder over their China+1 plans, whether it is tackling head on India’s poor social indicators or upgrading India’s state capacity, whether it is advancing India’s geopolitical standing or optimising India’s privatisation programme, whether it is tech-sector regulation or accelerating action on India’s legal backlog of 45 million cases [17] , whether it is catching up on India’s infrastructure needs or solving India’s agricultural inefficiencies, the winning formula will reside at the intersection of politics and economics. Economics will provide the logic, politics will provide the leeway.

India’s demographics is both a boon and a bane. India’s window of opportunity is perhaps the next decade and a half.

India’s demographics is both a boon and a bane. India’s window of opportunity is perhaps the next decade and a half. The over-65 population is projected to overtake the under-five group between 2025 and 2030. “India Ageing Report 2017” by the United Nations Population Fund says the share of population over the age of 60 would increase from 8% in 2015 to 19% in 2050. All this will reverse the trend of declining dependency ratios, hurt the savings-investment-growth dynamic, and moderate India’s economic growth rates. I read a tweet recently, which reflected the sentiments of Middle America: “The lifestyle you ordered is out of stock,” This would likely play out in India as well. With the build up of aspirations on one side and the weight of demographic reversals on the other side, tensions will surely mount.

Political leaders will have to lead with a singular focus and follow Jim Collins’ management advice regarding leadership in a world of complexity and uncertainty: “Instead of being oppressed by the “Tyranny of the Or”, highly visionary companies liberate themselves with the “Genius of the And”— the ability to embrace both extremes of a number of dimensions at the same time.” For Vision 2030 and beyond, boxes are out, fluidity is in.

Policy adventurism has long tails. For instance, recent news reports [18] , though contested [19] , show how government finances have been hurt by the oil bonds of the 2005-10 period, which were issued by the government to oil marketing companies to compensate for under-recoveries resulting from rise in crude prices which they were not allowed to pass on to consumers and industry. These, estimated between $10 to $18 billion, is now coming due, starting from late 2021 through to 2026. Such exercises of creative management of the Union Budget have added up to make government finances precarious and are effectively making taxpayers today pay for subsidies handed out to consumers more than a decade ago. In most such cases, politics wins, economics loses. Hard headed economics needs to be brought centre-stage.

In the near term, while the seductive appeal of nationalism, populism and protectionism will prevail, ultimately the pendulum will swing towards global integration, and our own historical experience of being an autarky will probably make us a champion of free markets and globalisation as this decade comes to an end.

Political polarisation would also likely have economic solutions. In a very timely essay in The American Purpose, Steven Feldstein (2021), a Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, spoke about the risks of technologically driven echo chambers and safe havens: “There is a risk that democracies will fracture even further, into “splinternets,” unable to coordinate norms and standards.” Such risks are even more stark in India because of its multidimensional diversity. A singular focus on tangible prosperity can channelise the narrative. In the near term, while the seductive appeal of nationalism, populism and protectionism will prevail, ultimately the pendulum will swing towards global integration, and our own historical experience of being an autarky will probably make us a champion of free markets and globalisation as this decade comes to an end. And importantly, India has been conditioned to look West. Much of the action now is in the East and as India cracks the East Asian trade networks, the rewards are likely to be disproportionate.

As the world moves from bilateralism to multilateralism, alignments will be more issue based and tactical, giving Middle Powers like India new abilities to shape the world.

The Lowy Asia Power Index (2020) ranks countries based on eight criteria: economic capability, military capability, resilience, future resources, economic relationships, defence networks, diplomatic relations and cultural influence. Directly or indirectly, all of these factors are a confluence of political and economic forces. In the 2020 survey, India ranked 4th, after the United States, China and Japan. By 2030, India could easily come 3rd, if not 2nd. Geopolitically, India will have an opening: As the world moves from bilateralism to multilateralism, alignments will be more issue based and tactical, giving Middle Powers like India new abilities to shape the world. However, capitalising on it, will require an integrated worldview, the core of which will be India’s economic strength, aided and abetted by political craftsmanship, the deep roots of the Indian diaspora, and India’s near-natural status to be a counterweight to China.

The shortest poem in the world – Me, We – was recited by heavyweight boxing champ Muhammad Ali at the Harvard Commencement in 1975. It signified the paradox of self-confidence and deference to the community. The decade leading to 2030 will need Indian leaders to recite such poetry.

5. Conclusion: To Win, Practice Cathedral Thinking

The economic prize of 2030 may not seem that attractive at first glance. According to the World Economic League Tables (2021), India’s GDP in 2030 will be $6.2 trillion, translating to $4185 on a per capita basis. However, on a PPP basis, this would be at least 3x more, comparable to Indonesia, South Africa or Peru today. As a society we should endeavour to beat this base case. Getting there will require Cathedral Thinking.

Cathedral Thinking refers to long-term, visionary work that could take generations to complete. Much like building a massive cathedral, those who lay the first stones won’t be there to savour the finished product. Yet each worker is driven to make a meaningful contribution to something that will be enjoyed by future generations, who they’ll never meet. That is the long-range vision leaders need if India has to reach its true potential.

For those who think that a nation’s economic fate is determined by geography or culture, Daron Acemoglu and Jim Robinson (2012) have bad news. In their remarkable book, “Why Nations Fail”, they go through two thousand years of political and economic history, and conclude that it’s man-made institutions, not resources or endowments or the contingencies of history, that are the prime determinants of whether a country is rich or poor. India’s institutions need to be reset for the new era of global competition.

India of 2030 will look very different from an institutional setting and that will perhaps be the core driver of all the surface changes that we will encounter.

A few things stand out. India’s institutions are typically forced to cater to a range of conflicting demands. Regulators often play catch up with market realities. Many government policies have a crisis as a frame of reference. And lastly, in India’s defining moments, individual heroism trumps institutional initiatives. India of 2030 will look very different from an institutional setting and that will perhaps be the core driver of all the surface changes that we will encounter.

Success – amongst people, businesses, countries – is not a result of more good luck, less bad luck, bigger spikes of luck, or better timing of luck. Instead, they make more of their luck than others. The current decade is a time to maximise our return on luck!

256 Network & Praxis Global Alliance. (2021). Turning Ideas to Gold. Retrieved from url:https://www.praxisga.com/reports-and-publications/financial-investors-group/report-turning-ideas-to-gold

Acemoglu, D. & Robinson, J.A. (2012). Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty. New York: Crown Publishers, Random House.

Collins, J. & Porras, J.I. (1994). Built to Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies. United States: Harper Business. ISBN 0-060-56610-8

Dreze, J. & Sen, A. (2013). An Uncertain Glory: India and its Contradictions. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

Durant, W. & Durant, A. (1968). The Lessons of History. Simon & Schuster.

Feldstein, S. (2021). Can Democracy Survive the “Splinternet?”. American Purpose. Retrieved from url: https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/can-democracy-survive-the-splinternet/

India Ageing Report (2017). Caring for Our Elders: Early Responses, available at https://india.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/India%20Ageing%20Report%20-%202017%20%28Final%20Version%29.pdf

Lowy Institute Asia Power Index. (2020). Lowy Institute. Retrieved from: https://power.lowyinstitute.org/

Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2019. Retrieved from url: https://www.exchange4media.com/PMAR19-Final.pdf

Press Trust of India. (September 2, 2021). ‘India added three ‘unicorns’ per month in 2021: Hurun report’. Business Standard.

Reliance Industries Limited Integrated Annual Report 2019-2020. https://www.ril.com/getattachment/299caec5-2e8a-43b7-8f70-d633a150d07e/AnnualReport_2019-20.aspx

Reserve Bank of India Bulletin. August 2021. Volume LXXV Number 8. Retrieved from url: https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/0BULLETINAUG2021767F2556D32A4061B0AC0EE3C54C1208.PDF

Telecom Regulatory Authority of India. (2020). The Indian Telecom Services Performance Indicators, July-September 2020. New Delhi. Retrieved from url: https://www.trai.gov.in/sites/default/files/QPIR_21012021_0.pdf

United Nations Development Programme. (2019). The 2019 Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI). United Nations Development Programme and Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative. Retrieved from url: http://hdr.undp.org/en/2019-MPI

United Nations Population Fund 2017. ‘Caring for Our Elders: Early Responses’ – India Ageing Report – 2017. New Delhi, India: UNFPA. Retrieved from url: https://india.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/India%20Ageing%20Report%20-%202017%20%28Final%20Version%29.pdf

Virmani, A., 2004. India’s economic growth: From socialist rate of growth to Bharatiya rate of growth, (No. 122). ICRIER Working Paper.

WORLD ECONOMIC LEAGUE TABLE (2021). Available at https://cebr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WELT-2021-final-23.12.pdf

Zac Dycthwald. (2021). China’s New Innovation Advantage. Harvard Business Review. Retrieved from url: https://hbr.org/2021/05/chinas-new-innovation-advantage

[1]  See https://www.financialexpress.com/archive/redefining-the-hindu-rate-of-growth/104268/

[2]  https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/at-92-salary-growth-in-india-is-highest-in-asia/article30462524.ece

[3]  See data from Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India

[4]  See Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2019 available here https://www.exchange4media.com/PMAR19-Final.pdf

[5]  Reliance Industries Limited Annual Report 2019-20, page 4

[6]  See 100 Unicorns: India’s changing corporate strategy, India Market Strategy, Credit Suisse, March 10, 2021. Quoted in RBI Bulletin, August 2021.

[7]  https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/india-added-three-unicorns-per-month-in-2021-hurun-report-121090200848_1.html

[8]  https://www1.nseindia.com/content/indices/ind_nifty50.pdf

[9]  Handbook of Statistics on Indian States, RBI

[10]  https://gdc.unicef.org/resource/report-india-lifted-271-million-people-out-poverty-decade

[11]  India’s investment rate as a percentage of GDP has fluctuated between 20% and 35%. With increase in NPAs this has been pulled down. However, the government has been prompt in taking strong actions by the Asset Quality Review followed by the introduction of Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. These should bring back the NPAs to reasonable levels and kickstart the credit cycle.

[12]  https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2019/01/22/joyless-growth-in-china-india-and-the-united-states/

[13]  https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/age-dependency-ratio-projected-to-2100

[14]  https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=18810

[15]  https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=18810

[16]  https://hbr.org/2021/05/chinas-new-innovation-advantage

[17]  https://www.news18.com/news/explainers/explained-cji-ramana-says-4-5-crore-cases-pending-heres-what-has-been-fuelling-backlog-3977411.html

[18]  https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/the-oil-bonds-upa-launched-why-how-much-and-what-nda-argues-7458773/

[19]  https://scroll.in/article/894559/fact-check-have-upa-era-oil-bonds-prevented-modi-government-from-reducing-oil-prices

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Essay on Future of India

Students are often asked to write an essay on Future of India in their schools and colleges. And if you’re also looking for the same, we have created 100-word, 250-word, and 500-word essays on the topic.

Let’s take a look…

100 Words Essay on Future of India

The rise of india.

India’s future is bright, full of potential and promise. With advancements in technology, it’s becoming a global leader in various sectors.

Technological Advancements

Education and skill development.

India’s focus on education and skill development is preparing a competent workforce, ready to meet global demands.

Environment and Sustainability

India is also working towards sustainable development, aiming to balance economic growth with environmental preservation.

250 Words Essay on Future of India

The vision of future india.

India, a land of diverse cultures, languages, and traditions, is on the cusp of a new era. The future of India lies in harnessing its potential as a knowledge economy, capitalizing on technological advancements, and nurturing its human capital.

Knowledge Economy and Digital Transformation

The future of India is deeply intertwined with its transition to a knowledge-based economy. With the digital revolution, India has the potential to become a global hub for innovation, research, and development. The government’s Digital India initiative is a step towards this vision, aiming to transform India into a digitally empowered society.

Advancements in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and robotics, are poised to redefine India’s future. These technologies can revolutionize sectors like healthcare, agriculture, and manufacturing, leading to increased productivity and improved quality of life.

Human Capital and Education

India’s demographic dividend, with more than 50% of its population under the age of 25, presents a unique opportunity. However, it also poses a challenge. The need for quality education and skill development is paramount to prepare this workforce for the future.

Challenges and Opportunities

Despite these prospects, challenges remain. Socioeconomic disparities, infrastructural gaps, and environmental concerns need to be addressed. However, with effective policy measures, robust institutional frameworks, and a commitment to sustainable development, India can overcome these challenges.

In conclusion, the future of India is promising, filled with opportunities and potential. By leveraging technology, investing in human capital, and addressing existing challenges, India can chart a path towards a prosperous and inclusive future.

500 Words Essay on Future of India

The dawn of a new era.

India, a country with an ancient civilization and rich cultural heritage, stands at the cusp of a new era. With a population of over 1.3 billion, it is poised to become the most populous nation by 2027. This demographic dividend, coupled with rapid technological advancements, holds the promise of catapulting India into the league of developed nations.

Technological Innovation

India is rapidly emerging as a global hub for technological innovation. The IT sector, which currently contributes about 8% to the nation’s GDP, is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping India’s future. The proliferation of startups, especially in the fields of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and data analytics, is testament to this trend. These technologies are not just creating new jobs but are also driving efficiencies in sectors as diverse as healthcare, agriculture, and education.

The future of India is intrinsically tied to the education and skill development of its youth. The government’s focus on initiatives such as ‘Skill India’ and ‘Digital India’ aims to equip the workforce with the skills required for the jobs of the future. Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) are making quality education accessible to students in the remotest corners of the country, thereby democratizing education.

Infrastructure Development

Environmental sustainability.

India’s future is also intertwined with its commitment to environmental sustainability. The country is making significant strides in renewable energy, with a target of achieving 175 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022. The successful implementation of the world’s largest clean cooking fuel program, ‘Ujjwala Yojana’, is another feather in India’s sustainability cap.

Challenges Ahead

In conclusion, the future of India lies in leveraging its demographic dividend, harnessing technological advancements, improving education and skill development, and committing to environmental sustainability. While challenges persist, the spirit of resilience and innovation that characterizes India gives hope for a bright and prosperous future. As India stands on the brink of a new era, it is poised to not just transform itself, but also make significant contributions to global progress.

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Essay on “India in 2050 A.D.” for School, College Students, Long and Short English Essay, Speech for Class 10, Class 12, College and Competitive Exams.

India in 2050 A.D.

India is 2050 A.D. will be completely a changed scenario. One can visualize thus. Poverty in the country will have minimized, if not completely abolished. Every citizen of the country, irrespective of caste, colour sex and religion will be entitled to certain basic facilities like, free education, employment, housing, health and Medicare. The state will have taken upon itself the duty to look after every citizen from the cradle to the grave, and in turn, expect all of us to put our best efforts forward for the betterment of the nation. The rules will be much strict for the anti-social elements in any sphere of life.

Workers will have got their rightful due. They will no longer be dependent upon the mercy of their employers. They will be equal partners in the progress of the industry. The unemployment problem seems to have solved to a great extent with the expansion of industries into far off villages along with the modernization of Agriculture. The New Education Policy will have borne its full fruit and the whole system of Education will be vocational zed and there will be no problem of skilled workers and jobs for them.

Hopefully India would be one of the great power of the world in terms of her war-preparedness and the current problems of terrorism and border skirmishes will have died a natural death and everything will be stable with everything. India will have proved to be an electronic giant in terms of the production and export of electronic goods.

Our relations with our neighbours countries will have turned to be fully cordial including China and our efforts to make South Asia a single unity would have borne fruit to a great extent.

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India in 2050

Let's have a look at the country we are likely to leave behind in 2049.

In 35 years you and I will, going by the average age of newspaper readers and life expectancy in India, be dead. Let’s have a look at the country we are likely to leave behind in 2049. First, let’s deflate the optimists. In a 2011 report, Citigroup predicted India would be the world’s biggest economy before 2050. “We expect India’s real per capita GDP to grow at 6.4% pa over the 40-year period between 2010 and 2050 (7.2% pa over the next 10 years and at rates of 7.7% pa between 2020 and 2030 and 5.2% pa between 2030 and 2050). As a result, we expect India to become the largest economy in the world by 2050, overtaking China and the US in the process."

This leap would produce an Indian economy of $85 trillion (around ₹ 5,250 trillion) in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms (up from just under $4 trillion in 2010). Unfortunately, the study’s immediate prediction of Indian growth at 7.2% between 2010 and 2015 turned out to be wrong. And there’s no guarantee that its mapping further on is going to be any more accurate.

Four years ago, when we were growing at 9%, I wrote in Mint Lounge that India’s high growth could not be sustained. I don’t think this will change, irrespective of policy tweaking by Central governments.

The other thing is what the economy means to the average Indian. Net national income is today about ₹ 70,000 per person per year according to the Central Statistics Office.

India’s incomes are the lowest among Brics nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Median per capita income (meaning more than half the population) is only a little over ₹ 35,000.

This group will be only slightly better off in the next generation.

Second, our two major internal national security problems are Kashmir and the North-East. Both will be resolved in the sense that they will no longer be violent. My guess is that with both, there will be a compromise within the states because of India’s insistence on democracy. The economic migration of these states’ citizens in India is already blunting their secessionary spirit.

Third, there will still be servants. Reading some histories of the world wars recently, I was struck by how frequently the mention of servant shortages came up in reports from Great Britain. Their culture of servants ceased after World War I, because wages went up and modern equipment made household work simpler.

In India it isn’t a function of demand and supply and of economics and technology alone. It also has to do with privacy. In relatively small spaces, we are comfortable with the constant presence of the servant, and this will not change in the next generation.

Fourth, honour killings will be gone. The media has penetrated what was traditionally a closed caste space. Haryana’s Jats are feeling this glare. It is society that bestows honour on families that do honour killing, and as media pressure piled on, this honour has lost its sheen.

Fifth, the Baniya dominance of industry will end. Only some of the inheritors of today’s industrialists will continue to be on the list of India’s top billionaires. Many peripheral communities will break through. Business schools will produce more people with the ability to raise and manage capital than a handful of mercantile castes.

Sixth, we will see a shift in our identity. M.N. Srinivas wrote in his last essay for the Economic And Political Weekly that it was the introduction of currency that began to kill off caste. Barter is what kept it alive for centuries, locking the artisan into his trade. B.R. Ambedkar felt the city was the place that accelerated this process of losing caste. It is obvious that the Indian city dilutes tribal identities and caste will neither be understood nor felt by many and perhaps most of us by then.

Seventh, our cities will be less chaotic, with better public transport. This will come because the middle class will be so dominant politically that its demands will replace those of the abject poor. There will be middle-class state parties as there are caste-based ones today. Schools will be better, with less of a gap between the best and the worst than there is today.

Eighth, politically, we have already made a great success of democracy, and its next phase will be devolution. It is clear already that there will be a shift in the structure of power and the Centre will have less and less to say with states becoming more autonomous.

Ninth, if you have toddlers, they will be in their late 30s then. It’s likely they will absorb different social values from you than you did from your parents, because they have access to far more that is shaping them. If you have teenagers, they are already developed and you can observe in them the characteristics of the future middle-aged Indian.

Tenth, culturally it will be quite bad. We will see across India what we have today in our cities, a middle class that speaks no language correctly. The largest group of people will be those who use English as their first language, without really being able to wield it properly. Again, most people will be familiar with their mother tongue, but not regular readers in it. On the other hand, high culture—classical music and dance—will be better curated and nurtured than it is today.

Many things will be better. I think we will be less corrupt because of technology. Our tendency to riot is falling every decade and I don’t think we will be at one another’s throat over religion any longer. In these ways and a few more, we will be witness to shifts of the sort that we didn’t think possible today and will be pleased to have around as we go.

Also Read | Aakar’s previous Lounge columns

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Vision India@2047: Transforming the Nation's Future | 03 Nov 2023

This editorial is based on “Virtues of planning: On the Vision India@2047 plan ” which was published in The Hindu on 02/11/2023. It discusses the government’s blueprint to develop India by 2047, which is expected to be unveiled by the Prime Minister in early 2024.

For Prelims: Vision India@2047, NITI Aayog , PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) , Nominal GDP , Demographic dividend , Middle Income Trap, Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) , Labor force participation rate (LFPR) , Production-linked incentive scheme , National infrastructure pipeline

For Mains: Vision India@2047, Factors that may Contribute to India’s Economic Growth, Challenges before India’s 30 tn Dollar Economy Vision and Way Forward

In early 2024, the Prime Minister is expected to unveil a road map to transform the country into a developed nation with a USD 30 trillion economy by the time it completes 100 years of Independence.

The Vision India@2047 plan, as it is officially named, has been in the works for nearly two years with officials across ministries brainstorming on how to take the country from its current level of development to where it aspires to be.

The NITI Aayog , in the process of giving this vision document a final shape, will soon run its central ideas and goals past top minds across sectors, including World Bank President Ajay Banga, Apple chief Tim Cook, as well as Indian industrialists and thought leaders, to finetune them and factor in any blind spots. Coming ahead of the Lok Sabha election, the plan may well be viewed as the government’s policy playbook promise for prospective voters.

What is Vision India@2047?

• Vision India@2047 is a project initiated by the NITI Aayog , the apex policy think tank of India, to create a blueprint for India’s development in the next 25 years.
• The project aims to make India a global leader in innovation and technology , a model of human development and social welfare, and a champion of environmental sustainability.
• Achieving a USD 30 trillion economy with a per-capita income of USD 18,000-20,000 and strong public finances and a robust financial sector.
• Building world-class infrastructure and facilities in both rural and urban areas.
• Eliminating unnecessary interference by the government in the lives of citizens and promoting digital economy and governance.
• Developing 3-4 global champions in every sector by merger or restructuring and boosting indigenous industry and innovation.
• Becoming self-reliant in defence and space sectors and enhancing India’s role in the world.
• Fostering green growth and climate action by increasing renewable energy capacity and reducing carbon emissions.
• Empowering the youth with skills and education and creating more employment opportunities.
• Partnering with foreign R&D organizations to build top 10 labs in the country and bringing at least 10 Indian institutions among the top 100 globally.

What is the Current Status and Future Prospects of the Indian Economy?

• India is currently estimated to be the fifth largest economy in Nominal terms and 3rd largest in PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) terms.
• By 2022, the size of Indian GDP had already become larger than the GDP of the UK and also France.
• Ratings agency S&P estimates that India's nominal GDP will rise from USD 3.4 trillion in 2022 to USD 7.3 trillion by 2030.
• This rapid pace of economic expansion would result in the size of the Indian GDP making India the second largest economy in the Asia-Pacific region.
• India’s exports will be valued at USD 8.67 trillion in 2047 while its imports will be valued at USD 12.12 trillion.
• India’s average life expectancy will jump to 71.8 from 67.2 in 2021 and its literacy rate to 89.8% from 77.8% in 2021.

What are the Factors that may Contribute to India’s Economic Growth?

• According to reports, India has a population of over 1.4 billion people, with more than 40% below the age of 25. This provides a huge demographic dividend for economic growth.
• Growth of the Middle Class: India’s middle class is projected to expand from about 50 million in 2023 to over 500 million by 2050, creating a huge domestic market and demand for goods and services.
• These sectors have the potential to create new jobs, improve efficiency, and increase access to services.
• Sustainability-Focused Economy: India has been investing in renewable energy , green infrastructure , and climate resilience, aiming to reduce its carbon footprint and enhance its environmental quality. These initiatives can also create new opportunities for growth and development.

What are the Challenges before India’s 30 tn Dollar Economy Vision?

• According to the World Bank definition, the middle-income trap "refers to a situation whereby a middle-income country is failing to transition to a high-income economy due to rising costs and declining competitiveness".
• This means that India will have to deal with the challenges of an ageing population, such as rising health care costs, pension liabilities, and labor shortages.
• Moreover, various estimates show that the Indian Economy will grow at 7% for the next 10 years.
• While the preliminary numbers provided by the Niti Aayog, estimates show that the economy will need to post an annual average economic growth of 9.2% between 2030-2040, 8.8% between 2040-2047 and 9% between 2030 to 2047.
• The Rupee-Dollar Conundrum: India’s GDP in dollar terms is also a function of the rupee-dollar exchange rate, which is influenced by various factors such as inflation, trade balance, capital flows, and monetary policy.
• Geopolitics and regional integration: India faces a complex and dynamic geopolitical environment, with rising tensions with China, Pakistan, and other neighbors, and changing relations with the US, Russia, and other major powers.
• Stagnated Agriculture and Manufacturing sectors: Improving the productivity and competitiveness of the agriculture sector, which employs more than half of the workforce but accounts for just 17% of the GDP, and revitalizing the stagnated manufacturing sector, which has maintained a 15% GDP share for decades, while simultaneously generating employment opportunities for the expanding population.
• Lower Labor Force Participation : According to the latest Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) Annual Report 2022-2023, India’s labor force participation rate (LFPR) was 40.4% in 2022-2023, which is lower than the global average of 61.4%. Moreover, India’s LFPR has been declining over the years, especially for women.

What More Needs to be Done?

• Aim for Greater, Faster Divestitures: India has a large public sector that often suffers from inefficiencies, corruption, and losses. By divesting or privatizing some of these enterprises, India could raise funds, improve productivity, and attract foreign investment.
• Boost the Middle Class: India’s middle class is a key driver of consumption and growth, but it is also burdened by high taxes and low savings. By cutting tax rates or abolishing personal income tax and replacing it with a consumption tax, India could increase the disposable income and spending power of its middle class, while also simplifying the tax system and reducing evasion.
• Initiatives like New Education Policy and Skill India Mission are the right steps towards this.
• India has announced a Rs 100 lakh crore-plus National infrastructure pipeline, but it needs to speed up its execution and financing.
• India needs to further improve its ease of doing business, labor laws, and skill development to attract more domestic and foreign investment.
• Boost Private Investment: India needs to attract more foreign direct investment and encourage domestic companies to invest in the economy. The government can incentivize private investment by offering support for infrastructure projects and manufacturing.
• Implement Structural Reforms : India needs to undertake targeted reforms to raise productivity and competitiveness. McKinsey has identified six areas of targeted reform that can help raise productivity and competitiveness, including financial-sector reforms, urban planning, and e-commerce.
• Increase Capital Accumulation: Investment as a proportion of GDP needs to increase to achieve the goal of becoming a USD 30 trillion economy. The government can play a key role in boosting investment by offering substantial support for infrastructure projects and by incentivizing manufacturing.

UPSC Civil Services Examination, Previous Year Questions (PYQs)

Q1. Define potential GDP and explain its determinants. What are the factors that have been inhibiting India from realizing its potential GDP? (2020)