research paper on volcanoes

Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing (2017)

Chapter: 1 introduction, 1 introduction.

Volcanoes are a key part of the Earth system. Most of Earth’s atmosphere, water, and crust were delivered by volcanoes, and volcanoes continue to recycle earth materials. Volcanic eruptions are common. More than a dozen are usually erupting at any time somewhere on Earth, and close to 100 erupt in any year ( Loughlin et al., 2015 ).

Volcano landforms and eruptive behavior are diverse, reflecting the large number and complexity of interacting processes that govern the generation, storage, ascent, and eruption of magmas. Eruptions are influenced by the tectonic setting, the properties of Earth’s crust, and the history of the volcano. Yet, despite the great variability in the ways volcanoes erupt, eruptions are all governed by a common set of physical and chemical processes. Understanding how volcanoes form, how they erupt, and their consequences requires an understanding of the processes that cause rocks to melt and change composition, how magma is stored in the crust and then rises to the surface, and the interaction of magma with its surroundings. Our understanding of how volcanoes work and their consequences is also shared with the millions of people who visit U.S. volcano national parks each year.

Volcanoes have enormous destructive power. Eruptions can change weather patterns, disrupt climate, and cause widespread human suffering and, in the past, mass extinctions. Globally, volcanic eruptions caused about 80,000 deaths during the 20th century ( Sigurdsson et al., 2015 ). Even modest eruptions, such as the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland, have multibillion-dollar global impacts through disruption of air traffic. The 2014 steam explosion at Mount Ontake, Japan, killed 57 people without any magma reaching the surface. Many volcanoes in the United States have the potential for much larger eruptions, such as the 1912 eruption of Katmai, Alaska, the largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century ( Hildreth and Fierstein, 2012 ). The 2008 eruption of the unmonitored Kasatochi volcano, Alaska, distributed volcanic gases over most of the continental United States within a week ( Figure 1.1 ).

Finally, volcanoes are important economically. Volcanic heat provides low-carbon geothermal energy. U.S. generation of geothermal energy accounts for nearly one-quarter of the global capacity ( Bertani, 2015 ). In addition, volcanoes act as magmatic and hydrothermal distilleries that create ore deposits, including gold and copper ores.

Moderate to large volcanic eruptions are infrequent yet high-consequence events. The impact of the largest possible eruption, similar to the super-eruptions at Yellowstone, Wyoming; Long Valley, California; or Valles Caldera, New Mexico, would exceed that of any other terrestrial natural event. Volcanoes pose the greatest natural hazard over time scales of several decades and longer, and at longer time scales they have the potential for global catastrophe ( Figure 1.2 ). While

the continental United States has not suffered a fatal eruption since 1980 at Mount St. Helens, the threat has only increased as more people move into volcanic areas.

Volcanic eruptions evolve over very different temporal and spatial scales than most other natural hazards ( Figure 1.3 ). In particular, many eruptions are preceded by signs of unrest that can serve as warnings, and an eruption itself often persists for an extended period of time. For example, the eruption of Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii has continued since 1983. We also know the locations of many volcanoes and, hence, where most eruptions will occur. For these reasons, the impacts of at least some types of volcanic eruptions should be easier to mitigate than other natural hazards.

Anticipating the largest volcanic eruptions is possible. Magma must rise to Earth’s surface and this movement is usually accompanied by precursors—changes in seismic, deformation, and geochemical signals that can be recorded by ground-based and space-borne instruments. However, depending on the monitoring infrastructure, precursors may present themselves over time scales that range from a few hours (e.g., 2002 Reventador, Ecuador, and 2015 Calbuco, Chile) to decades before eruption (e.g., 1994 Rabaul, Papua New Guinea). Moreover, not all signals of volcanic unrest are immediate precursors to surface eruptions (e.g., currently Long Valley, California, and Campi Flegrei, Italy).

Probabilistic forecasts account for this uncertainty using all potential eruption scenarios and all relevant data. An important consideration is that the historical record is short and biased. The instrumented record is even shorter and, for most volcanoes, spans only the last few decades—a miniscule fraction of their lifetime. Knowledge can be extended qualitatively using field studies of volcanic deposits, historical accounts, and proxy data, such as ice and marine sediment cores and speleothem (cave) records. Yet, these too are biased because they commonly do not record small to moderate eruptions.

Understanding volcanic eruptions requires contributions from a wide range of disciplines and approaches. Geologic studies play a critical role in reconstructing the past eruption history of volcanoes,

especially of the largest events, and in regions with no historical or directly observed eruptions. Geochemical and geophysical techniques are used to study volcano processes at scales ranging from crystals to plumes of volcanic ash. Models reveal essential processes that control volcanic eruptions, and guide data collection. Monitoring provides a wealth of information about the life cycle of volcanoes and vital clues about what kind of eruption is likely and when it may occur.

1.1 OVERVIEW OF THIS REPORT

At the request of managers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Science Foundation, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine established a committee to undertake the following tasks:

• Summarize current understanding of how magma is stored, ascends, and erupts.
• Discuss new disciplinary and interdisciplinary research on volcanic processes and precursors that could lead to forecasts of the type, size, and timing of volcanic eruptions.
• Describe new observations or instrument deployment strategies that could improve quantification of volcanic eruption processes and precursors.
• Identify priority research and observations needed to improve understanding of volcanic eruptions and to inform monitoring and early warning efforts.

The roles of the three agencies in advancing volcano science are summarized in Box 1.1 .

The committee held four meetings, including an international workshop, to gather information, deliberate, and prepare its report. The report is not intended to be a comprehensive review, but rather to provide a broad overview of the topics listed above. Chapter 2 addresses the opportunities for better understanding the storage, ascent, and eruption of magmas. Chapter 3 summarizes the challenges and prospects for forecasting eruptions and their consequences. Chapter 4 highlights repercussions of volcanic eruptions on a host of other Earth systems. Although not explicitly called out in the four tasks, the interactions between volcanoes and other Earth systems affect the consequences of eruptions, and offer opportunities to improve forecasting and obtain new insights into volcanic processes. Chapter 5 summarizes opportunities to strengthen

research in volcano science. Chapter 6 provides overarching conclusions. Supporting material appears in appendixes, including a list of volcano databases (see Appendix A ), a list of workshop participants (see Appendix B ), biographical sketches of the committee members (see Appendix C ), and a list of acronyms and abbreviations (see Appendix D ).

Background information on these topics is summarized in the rest of this chapter.

1.2 VOLCANOES IN THE UNITED STATES

The USGS has identified 169 potentially active volcanoes in the United States and its territories (e.g., Marianas), 55 of which pose a high threat or very high threat ( Ewert et al., 2005 ). Of the total, 84 are monitored by at least one seismometer, and only 3 have gas sensors (as of November 2016). 1 Volcanoes are found in the Cascade mountains, Aleutian arc, Hawaii, and the western interior of the continental United States ( Figure 1.4 ). The geographical extent and eruption hazards of these volcanoes are summarized below.

The Cascade volcanoes extend from Lassen Peak in northern California to Mount Meager in British Columbia. The historical record contains only small- to moderate-sized eruptions, but the geologic record reveals much larger eruptions ( Carey et al., 1995 ; Hildreth, 2007 ). Activity tends to be sporadic ( Figure 1.5 ). For example, nine Cascade eruptions occurred in the 1850s, but none occurred between 1915 and 1980, when Mount St. Helens erupted. Consequently, forecasting eruptions in the Cascades is subject to considerable uncertainty. Over the coming decades, there may be multiple eruptions from several volcanoes or no eruptions at all.

The Aleutian arc extends 2,500 km across the North Pacific and comprises more than 130 active and potentially active volcanoes. Although remote, these volcanoes pose a high risk to overflying aircraft that carry more than 30,000 passengers a day, and are monitored by a combination of ground- and space-based sensors. One or two small to moderate explosive eruptions occur in the Aleutians every year, and very large eruptions occur less frequently. For example, the world’s largest eruption of the 20th century occurred approximately 300 miles from Anchorage, in 1912.

In Hawaii, Kilauea has been erupting largely effusively since 1983, but the location and nature of eruptions can vary dramatically, presenting challenges for disaster preparation. The population at risk from large-volume, rapidly moving lava flows on the flanks of the Mauna Loa volcano has grown tremendously in the past few decades ( Dietterich and Cashman, 2014 ), and few island residents are prepared for the even larger magnitude explosive eruptions that are documented in the last 500 years ( Swanson et al., 2014 ).

All western states have potentially active volcanoes, from New Mexico, where lava flows have reached within a few kilometers of the Texas and Oklahoma borders ( Fitton et al., 1991 ), to Montana, which borders the Yellowstone caldera ( Christiansen, 1984 ). These volcanoes range from immense calderas that formed from super-eruptions ( Mastin et al., 2014 ) to small-volume basaltic volcanic fields that erupt lava flows and tephra for a few months to a few decades. Some of these eruptions are monogenic (erupt just once) and pose a special challenge for forecasting. Rates of activity in these distributed volcanic fields are low, with many eruptions during the past few thousand years (e.g., Dunbar, 1999 ; Fenton, 2012 ; Laughlin et al., 1994 ), but none during the past hundred years.

1.3 THE STRUCTURE OF A VOLCANO

Volcanoes often form prominent landforms, with imposing peaks that tower above the surrounding landscape, large depressions (calderas), or volcanic fields with numerous dispersed cinder cones, shield volcanoes, domes, and lava flows. These various landforms reflect the plate tectonic setting, the ways in which those volcanoes erupt, and the number of eruptions. Volcanic landforms change continuously through the interplay between constructive processes such as eruption and intrusion, and modification by tectonics, climate, and erosion. The stratigraphic and structural architecture of volcanoes yields critical information on eruption history and processes that operate within the volcano.

Beneath the volcano lies a magmatic system that in most cases extends through the crust, except during eruption. Depending on the setting, magmas may rise

___________________

1 Personal communication from Charles Mandeville, Program Coordinator, Volcano Hazards Program, U.S. Geological Survey, on November 26, 2016.

directly from the mantle or be staged in one or more storage regions within the crust before erupting. The uppermost part (within 2–3 km of Earth’s surface) often hosts an active hydrothermal system where meteoric groundwater mingles with magmatic volatiles and is heated by deeper magma. Identifying the extent and vigor of hydrothermal activity is important for three reasons: (1) much of the unrest at volcanoes occurs in hydrothermal systems, and understanding the interaction of hydrothermal and magmatic systems is important for forecasting; (2) pressure buildup can cause sudden and potentially deadly phreatic explosions from the hydrothermal system itself (such as on Ontake, Japan, in 2014), which, in turn, can influence the deeper magmatic system; and (3) hydrothermal systems are energy resources and create ore deposits.

Below the hydrothermal system lies a magma reservoir where magma accumulates and evolves prior to eruption. Although traditionally modeled as a fluid-filled cavity, there is growing evidence that magma reservoirs may comprise an interconnected complex of vertical and/or horizontal magma-filled cracks, or a partially molten mush zone, or interleaved lenses of magma and solid material ( Cashman and Giordano, 2014 ). In arc volcanoes, magma chambers are typically located 3–6 km below the surface. The magma chamber is usually connected to the surface via a fluid-filled conduit only during eruptions. In some settings, magma may ascend directly from the mantle without being stored in the crust.

In the broadest sense, long-lived magma reservoirs comprise both eruptible magma (often assumed to contain less than about 50 percent crystals) and an accumulation of crystals that grow along the margins or settle to the bottom of the magma chamber. Physical segregation of dense crystals and metals can cause the floor of the magma chamber to sag, a process balanced by upward migration of more buoyant melt. A long-lived magma chamber can thus become increasingly stratified in composition and density.

The deepest structure beneath volcanoes is less well constrained. Swarms of low-frequency earthquakes at mid- to lower-crustal depths (10–40 km) beneath volcanoes suggest that fluid is periodically transferred into the base of the crust ( Power et al., 2004 ). Tomographic studies reveal that active volcanic systems have deep crustal roots that contain, on average, a small fraction of melt, typically less than 10 percent. The spatial distribution of that melt fraction, particularly how much is concentrated in lenses or in larger magma bodies, is unknown. Erupted samples preserve petrologic and geochemical evidence of deep crystallization, which requires some degree of melt accumulation. Seismic imaging and sparse outcrops suggest that the proportion of unerupted solidified magma relative to the surrounding country rock increases with depth and that the deep roots of volcanoes are much more extensive than their surface expression.

1.4 MONITORING VOLCANOES

Volcano monitoring is critical for hazard forecasts, eruption forecasts, and risk mitigation. However, many volcanoes are not monitored at all, and others are monitored using only a few types of instruments. Some parameters, such as the mass, extent, and trajectory of a volcanic ash cloud, are more effectively measured by satellites. Other parameters, notably low-magnitude earthquakes and volcanic gas emissions that may signal an impending eruption, require ground-based monitoring on or close to the volcanic edifice. This section summarizes existing and emerging technologies for monitoring volcanoes from the ground and from space.

Monitoring Volcanoes on or Near the Ground

Ground-based monitoring provides data on the location and movement of magma. To adequately capture what is happening inside a volcano, it is necessary to obtain a long-term and continuous record, with periods spanning both volcanic quiescence and periods of unrest. High-frequency data sampling and efficient near-real-time relay of information are important, especially when processes within the volcano–magmatic–hydrothermal system are changing rapidly. Many ground-based field campaigns are time intensive and can be hazardous when volcanoes are active. In these situations, telemetry systems permit the safe and continuous collection of data, although the conditions can be harsh and the lifetime of instruments can be limited in these conditions.

Ground-based volcano monitoring falls into four broad categories: seismic, deformation, gas, and thermal monitoring ( Table 1.1 ). Seismic monitoring tools,

TABLE 1.1 Ground-Based Instrumentation for Monitoring Volcanoes

including seismometers and infrasound sensors, are used to detect vibrations caused by breakage of rock and movement of fluids and to assess the evolution of eruptive activity. Ambient seismic noise monitoring can image subsurface reservoirs and document changes in wave speed that may reflect stress. changes. Deformation monitoring tools, including tiltmeters, borehole strainmeters, the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS, which includes the Global Positioning System [GPS]), lidar, radar, and gravimeters, are used to detect the motion of magma and other fluids in the subsurface. Some of these tools, such as GNSS and lidar, are also used to detect erupted products, including ash clouds, pyroclastic density currents, and volcanic bombs. Gas monitoring tools, including a range of sensors ( Table 1.1 ), and direct sampling of gases and fluids are used to detect magma intrusions and changes in magma–hydrothermal interactions. Thermal monitoring tools, such as infrared cameras, are used to detect dome growth and lava breakouts. Continuous video or photographic observations are also commonly used and, despite their simplicity, most directly document volcanic activity. Less commonly used monitoring technologies, such as self-potential, electromagnetic techniques, and lightning detection are used to constrain fluid movement and to detect

ash clouds. In addition, unmanned aerial vehicles (e.g., aircraft and drones) are increasingly being used to collect data. Rapid sample collection and analysis is also becoming more common as a monitoring tool at volcano observatories. A schematic of ground-based monitoring techniques is shown in Figure 1.6 .

Monitoring Volcanoes from Space

Satellite-borne sensors and instruments provide synoptic observations during volcanic eruptions when collecting data from the ground is too hazardous or where volcanoes are too remote for regular observation. Repeat-pass data collected over years or decades provide a powerful means for detecting surface changes on active volcanoes. Improvements in instrument sensitivity, data availability, and the computational capacity required to process large volumes of data have led to a dramatic increase in “satellite volcano science.”

Although no satellite-borne sensor currently in orbit has been specifically designed for volcano monitoring, a number of sensors measure volcano-relevant

TABLE 1.2 Satellite-Borne Sensor Suite for Volcano Monitoring

NOTE: AIRS, Atmospheric Infrared Sounder; ALOS, Advanced Land Observing Satellite; ASTER, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer; AVHRR, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer; CALIPSO, Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation; COSMO-SkyMed, Constellation of Small Satellites for Mediterranean Basin Observation; GOES, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite; IASI, Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer; MISR, Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer; MLS, Microwave Limb Sounder; MODIS, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer; OMI, Ozone Monitoring Instrument; OMPS, Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite; SAGE, Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment.

parameters, including heat flux, gas and ash emissions, and deformation ( Table 1.2 ). Thermal infrared data are used to detect eruption onset and cessation, calculate lava effusion rates, map lava flows, and estimate ash column heights during explosive eruptions. In some cases, satellites may capture thermal precursors to eruptions, although low-temperature phenomena are challenging to detect. Both high-temporal/low-spatial-resolution (geostationary orbit) and high-spatial/low-temporal-resolution (polar orbit) thermal infrared observations are needed for global volcano monitoring.

Satellite-borne sensors are particularly effective for observing the emission and dispersion of volcanic gas and ash plumes in the atmosphere. Although several volcanic gas species can be detected from space (including SO 2 , BrO, OClO, H 2 S, HCl, and CO; Carn et al., 2016 ), SO 2 is the most readily measured, and it is also responsible for much of the impact of eruptions on climate. Satellite measurements of SO 2 are valuable for detecting eruptions, estimating global volcanic fluxes and recycling of other volatile species, and tracking volcanic clouds that may be hazardous to aviation in near real time. Volcanic ash cloud altitude is most accurately determined by spaceborne lidar, although spatial coverage is limited. Techniques for measuring volcanic CO 2 from space are under development and could lead to earlier detection of preeruptive volcanic degassing.

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) enables global-scale background monitoring of volcano deformation ( Figure 1.7 ). InSAR provides much higher spatial resolution than GPS, but lower accuracy and temporal resolution. However, orbit repeat times will diminish as more InSAR missions are launched, such as the European Space Agency’s recently deployed Sentinel-1 satellite and the NASA–Indian Space Research Organisation synthetic aperture radar mission planned for launch in 2020.

1.5 ERUPTION BEHAVIOR

Eruptions range from violently explosive to gently effusive, from short lived (hours to days) to persistent over decades or centuries, from sustained to intermittent, and from steady to unsteady ( Siebert et al., 2015 ). Eruptions may initiate from processes within the magmatic system ( Section 1.3 ) or be triggered by processes and properties external to the volcano, such as precipitation, landslides, and earthquakes. The eruption behavior of a volcano may change over time. No classification scheme captures this full diversity of behaviors (see Bonadonna et al., 2016 ), but some common schemes to describe the style, magnitude, and intensity of eruptions are summarized below.

Eruption Magnitude and Intensity

The size of eruptions is usually described in terms of total erupted mass (or volume), often referred to as magnitude, and mass eruption rate, often referred to as intensity. Pyle (2015) quantified magnitude and eruption intensity as follows:

magnitude = log 10 (mass, in kg) – 7, and

intensity = log 10 (mass eruption rate, in kg/s) + 3.

The Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI) introduced by Newhall and Self (1982) assigns eruptions to a VEI class based primarily on measures of either magnitude (erupted mass or volume) or intensity (mass eruption rate and/or eruption plume height), with more weight given to magnitude. The VEI classes are summarized in Figure 1.8 . The VEI classification is still in use, despite its many limitations, such as its reliance on only a few types of measurements and its poor fit for small to moderate eruptions (see Bonadonna et al., 2016 ).

Smaller VEI events are relatively common, whereas larger VEI events are exponentially less frequent ( Siebert et al., 2015 ). For example, on average about three VEI 3 eruptions occur each year, whereas there is a 5 percent chance of a VEI 5 eruption and a 0.2 percent chance of a VEI 7 (e.g., Crater Lake, Oregon) event in any year.

Eruption Style

The style of an eruption encompasses factors such as eruption duration and steadiness, magnitude, gas flux, fountain or column height, and involvement of magma and/or external source of water (phreatic and phreatomagmatic eruptions). Eruptions are first divided into effusive (lava producing) and explosive (pyroclast producing) styles, although individual eruptions can be simultaneously effusive and weakly explosive, and can pass rapidly and repeatedly between eruption styles. Explosive eruptions are further subdivided into styles that are sustained on time scales of hours to days and styles that are short lived ( Table 1.3 ).

Classification of eruption style is often qualitative and based on historical accounts of characteristic eruptions from type-volcanoes. However, many type-volcanoes exhibit a range of eruption styles over time (e.g., progressing between Strombolian, Vulcanian, and Plinian behavior; see Fee et al., 2010 ), which has given rise to terms such as subplinian or violent Strombolian.

1.6 ERUPTION HAZARDS

Eruption hazards are diverse ( Figure 1.9 ) and may extend more than thousands of kilometers from an active volcano. From the perspective of risk and impact, it is useful to distinguish between near-source and distal hazards. Near-source hazards are far more unpredictable than distal hazards.

Near-source hazards include those that are airborne, such as tephra fallout, volcanic gases, and volcanic projectiles, and those that are transported laterally on or near the ground surface, such as pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, and lahars. Pyroclastic density currents are hot volcanic flows containing mixtures of gas and micron- to meter-sized volcanic particles. They can travel at velocities exceeding 100 km per hour. The heat combined with the high density of material within these flows obliterates objects in their path, making them the most destructive of volcanic hazards. Lava flows also destroy everything in their path, but usually move slowly enough to allow people to get out of the way. Lahars are mixtures of volcanic debris, sediment, and water that can travel many tens of kilometers along valleys and river channels. They may be triggered during an eruption by interaction between volcanic prod-

TABLE 1.3 Characteristics of Different Eruption Styles

ucts and snow, ice, rain, or groundwater. Lahars can be more devastating than the eruption itself. Ballistic blocks are large projectiles that typically fall within 1–5 km from vents.

The largest eruptions create distal hazards. Explosive eruptions produce plumes that are capable of dispersing ash hundreds to thousands of kilometers from the volcano. The thickness of ash deposited depends on the intensity and duration of the eruption and the wind direction. Airborne ash and ash fall are the most severe distal hazards and are likely to affect many more people than near-source hazards. They cause respiratory problems and roof collapse, and also affect transport networks and infrastructure needed to support emergency response. Volcanic ash is a serious risk to air traffic. Several jets fully loaded with passengers have temporarily lost power on all engines after encountering dilute ash clouds (e.g., Guffanti et al., 2010 ). Large lava flows, such as the 1783 Laki eruption in Iceland, emit volcanic gases that create respiratory problems and acidic rain more than 1,000 km from the eruption. Observed impacts of basaltic eruptions in Hawaii and Iceland include regional volcanic haze (“vog”) and acid rain that affect both agriculture and human health (e.g., Thordarson and Self, 2003 ) and fluorine can contaminate grazing land and water supplies (e.g., Cronin et al., 2003 ). Diffuse degassing of CO 2 can lead to deadly concentrations with fatal consequences such as occurred at Mammoth Lakes, California, or cause lakes to erupt, leading to massive CO 2 releases that suffocate people (e.g., Lake Nyos, Cameroon).

Secondary hazards can be more devastating than the initial eruption. Examples include lahars initiated by storms, earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis from eruptions or flank collapse; volcanic ash remobilized by wind to affect human health and aviation for extended periods of time; and flooding because rain can no longer infiltrate the ground.

1.7 MODELING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

Volcanic processes are governed by the laws of mass, momentum, and energy conservation. It is possible to develop models for magmatic and volcanic phenomena based on these laws, given sufficient information on mechanical and thermodynamic properties of the different components and how they interact with each other. Models are being developed for all processes in volcanic systems, including melt transport in the mantle, the evolution of magma bodies within the crust, the ascent of magmas to the surface, and the fate of magma that erupts effusively or explosively.

A central challenge for developing models is that volcanic eruptions are complex multiphase and multicomponent systems that involve interacting processes over a wide range of length and time scales. For example, during storage and ascent, the composition, temperature, and physical properties of magma and host rocks evolve. Bubbles and crystals nucleate and grow in this magma and, in turn, greatly influence the properties of the magmas and lavas. In explosive eruptions, magma fragmentation creates a hot mixture of gas and particles with a wide range of sizes and densities. Magma also interacts with its surroundings: the deformable rocks that surround the magma chamber and conduit, the potentially volatile groundwater and surface water, a changing landscape over which pyroclastic density currents and lava flows travel, and the atmosphere through which eruption columns rise.

Models for volcanic phenomena that involve a small number of processes and that are relatively amenable to direct observation, such as volcanic plumes, are relatively straightforward to develop and test. In contrast, phenomena that occur underground are more difficult to model because there are more interacting processes. In those cases, direct validation is much more challenging and in many cases impossible. Forecasting ash dispersal using plume models is more straightforward and testable than forecasting the onset, duration, and style of eruption using models that seek to explain geophysical and geochemical precursors. In all cases, however, the use of even imperfect models helps improve the understanding of volcanic systems.

Modeling approaches can be divided into three categories:

• Reduced models make simplifying assumptions about dynamics, heat transfer, and geometry to develop first-order explanations for key properties and processes, such as the velocity of lava flows and pyroclastic density currents, the height of eruption columns, the magma chamber size and depth, the dispersal of tephra, and the ascent of magma in conduits. Well-calibrated or tested reduced models offer a straightforward ap-

proach for combining observations and models in real time in an operational setting (e.g., ash dispersal forecasting for aviation safety). Models may not need to be complex if they capture the most important processes, although simplifications require testing against more comprehensive models and observations.

• Multiphase and multiphysics models improve scientific understanding of complex processes by invoking fewer assumptions and idealizations than reduced models ( Figure 1.10 ), but at the expense of increased complexity and computational demands. They also require additional components, such as a model for how magma in magma chambers and conduits deforms when stressed; a model for turbulence in pyroclastic density currents and plumes; terms that describe the thermal and mechanical exchange among gases, crystals, and particles; and a description of ash aggregation in eruption columns. A central challenge for multiphysics models is integrating small-scale processes with large-scale dynamics. Many of the models used in volcano science build on understanding developed in other science and engineering fields and for other ap-

plications. Multiphysics and multiscale models benefit from rapidly expanding computational capabilities.

• Laboratory experiments simulate processes for which the geometry and physical and thermal processes and properties can be scaled ( Mader et al., 2004 ). Such experiments provide insights on fundamental processes, such as crystal dynamics in flowing magmas, entrainment in eruption columns, propagation of dikes, and sedimentation from pyroclastic density currents ( Figure 1.11 ). Experiments have also been used successfully to develop the subsystem models used in numerical simulations, and to validate computer simulations for known inputs and properties.

The great diversity of existing models reflects to a large extent the many interacting processes that operate in volcanic eruptions and the corresponding simplifying assumptions currently required to construct such models. The challenge in developing models is often highlighted in discrepancies between models and observations of natural systems. Nevertheless, eruption models reveal essential processes governing volcanic eruptions, and they provide a basis for interpreting measurements from prehistoric and active eruptions and for closing observational gaps. Mathematical models offer a guide for what observations will be most useful. They may also be used to make quantitative and testable predictions, supporting forecasting and hazard assessment.

Volcanic eruptions are common, with more than 50 volcanic eruptions in the United States alone in the past 31 years. These eruptions can have devastating economic and social consequences, even at great distances from the volcano. Fortunately many eruptions are preceded by unrest that can be detected using ground, airborne, and spaceborne instruments. Data from these instruments, combined with basic understanding of how volcanoes work, form the basis for forecasting eruptions—where, when, how big, how long, and the consequences.

Accurate forecasts of the likelihood and magnitude of an eruption in a specified timeframe are rooted in a scientific understanding of the processes that govern the storage, ascent, and eruption of magma. Yet our understanding of volcanic systems is incomplete and biased by the limited number of volcanoes and eruption styles observed with advanced instrumentation. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing identifies key science questions, research and observation priorities, and approaches for building a volcano science community capable of tackling them. This report presents goals for making major advances in volcano science.

READ FREE ONLINE

Welcome to OpenBook!

You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

Show this book's table of contents , where you can jump to any chapter by name.

...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

Switch between the Original Pages , where you can read the report as it appeared in print, and Text Pages for the web version, where you can highlight and search the text.

To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter .

Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

View our suggested citation for this chapter.

Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

Get Email Updates

Do you enjoy reading reports from the Academies online for free ? Sign up for email notifications and we'll let you know about new publications in your areas of interest when they're released.

Advertisement

Big volcano science: needs and perspectives

• Perspectives
• Open access
• Published: 12 February 2022
• Volume 84 , article number  20 , ( 2022 )

Cite this article

You have full access to this open access article

• Paolo Papale   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-5207-2124 1 &
• Deepak Garg 1  

2924 Accesses

1 Altmetric

Explore all metrics

Volcano science has been deeply developing during last decades, from a branch of descriptive natural sciences to a highly multi-disciplinary, technologically advanced, quantitative sector of the geosciences. While the progress has been continuous and substantial, the volcanological community still lacks big scientific endeavors comparable in size and objectives to many that characterize other scientific fields. Examples include large infrastructures such as the LHC in Geneva for sub-atomic particle physics or the Hubble telescope for astrophysics, as well as deeply coordinated, highly funded, decadal projects such as the Human Genome Project for life sciences. Here we argue that a similar big science approach will increasingly concern volcano science, and briefly describe three examples of developments in volcanology requiring such an approach, and that we believe will characterize the current decade (2020–2030): the Krafla Magma Testbed initiative; the development of a Global Volcano Simulator; and the emerging relevance of big data in volcano science.

Similar content being viewed by others

Impact of climate change on biodiversity loss: global evidence

The rise in global atmospheric co2, surface temperature, and sea level from emissions traced to major carbon producers.

A new cold war?: The case for a general concept

Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.

Introduction

Volcano science has deeply evolved during last decades. One of us (PP) presented perspectives for next decade developments at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meetings 2010 and 2020, which are summarized in Table 1 . As from that easy forecast, approaches based on statistics and probabilities have become progressively more widespread in volcanology: a search in the Web of Science shows that the number of entries responding to “volcano” and “probability” more than doubles from the first to the second decade of this century. Similarly, sharing resources, as well as sharing experience, is continuing to increase in relevance. Examples include the large investments from the European Commission in infrastructural developments such as EPOS, the European Plate Observing System ( www.epos-eu.org ), representing the platform for EU-level data accessibility and sharing in solid Earth, and the frame within which European geoscientists discuss and implement common development strategies; and other EU-level investments, facilitated through EPOS, aimed at transverse, transnational access to resources such as advanced laboratories, observatories, data collections, and computational centers, and of which Eurovolc ( www.eurovolc.eu ) represents a valuable example. Other successful sharing initiatives include the VOBP (Volcano Observatory Best Practices) workshop series aimed at sharing best practices for volcano observatories, and including sharing of resources to sustain the inclusion of observatories from developing countries (Pallister et al. 2019 ).

The talk at AGU 2020 focused on the expected major developments in the current decade 2020–2030. Identifying the many sectors of volcanology that may benefit from significant advance is beyond the scope. The aim there, and here with this short paper, was that of identifying some major elements that may contribute significantly to shape volcanology in the next years. Together with the contributions from many other colleagues in this volume, the objective is to present a picture of what volcano science may look like in 10 years from now. The perspective that we present here largely (but not exclusively) refers to examples from Europe, that we believe can be representative of developments at international scale.

Big science and volcano science

The key word describing major upcoming developments in volcanology is big science. Big science usually refers to large scientific endeavors involving big budgets, big staff, big machines, and big laboratories. Other communities have engaged in big science since long, with enormous impacts such as those brought by the Large Hadron Collider in particle physics, the Hubble telescope in astronomy and astrophysics, or the large-scale initiative represented by the Human Genome Project ( https://www.genome.gov/human-genome-project ) in life sciences. ODP (Oceanic Drilling Program) activities carrying out exploration of the ocean floor are an example of large-scale projects in the Earth sciences, which have also largely benefited volcanology especially when the research involved volcanic ridges and arcs. One may wonder whether volcano science needs similar large-scale, international cooperative efforts. As a matter of fact, we are deeply convinced of the unique importance of science developed by individual or small groups of researchers. Examples of deep scientific innovation following from modest funding are countless, and, fortunately, science still flourishes on great ideas. It is a fact, however, that some extraordinary achievements strictly require similar extraordinary investments. The standard model of quantum mechanics constituting our current vision of the world would not be the same, without extreme technological implementations at a few large particle accelerators. Similarly, we would not have machines on Mars sending back pictures and data and possibly preparing a next human mission, without the huge investments that such an endeavor requires.

What about volcanoes? Of all the extremes that we have reached so far, none is as close to us yet as hidden and mysterious as real magma below volcanoes. We send probes to directly observe, sample, and analyze the surface of Mars at a distance of order 10 8  km, but have never done the same for magma at just 10 0  km below our feet. If curiosity and pure scientific interest are not enough, then it can be noticed that at least 800,000 people in the world live close enough to active volcanoes to directly suffer from a volcanic eruption (UNISDR 2015 ), and anticipating the occurrence of an eruption strictly requires understanding the nature of magma and its underground dynamics. If one would rank relevance on economic value, then it is useful to recall the immense heat associated with volcanic intrusions, of which the proportion converted into energy at geothermal power plants is nothing but a vanishing fraction (e.g., Friðleifsson and Elders 2005 ; Tester et al. 2006 ; Reinsch et al. 2017 ), as well as the potential of underground brines related to magmatic intrusions to be sources of strategic metals (Blundy et al. 2021 ). Summed up with renewable and clean characteristics of geothermal energy may make the search for real magma a highly remunerative effort in the near future.

In the talk at AGU 2020, the focus was on three themes that we expect are going to represent big developments in volcanology: directly reaching underground magma; collecting and processing volcanic data at unprecedented level; and developing a global volcano model. Ultimately, those themes can be reduced to measuring, analyzing, and modeling, making up the fundamental components of scientific investigation. Current and foreseen developments are described mostly with reference to ongoing or next initiatives in the European research landscape, of size and breath such as to likely represent big directions for developments also at the global scale.

Krafla Magma Testbed (KMT)

If one had to fix a date for the initiation of KMT, that would almost certainly be September 2014, when the first dedicated workshop took place within the Krafla caldera. That resulted from John Eichelberger’s vision and determination, as well as from the openness of Landsvirkjun, the Icelandic energy company owning the Krafla geothermal power plant and hosting the workshop. The story began, however, 5 years earlier, when the drill rig at the IDDP-1 well, aiming at supercritical fluids at 4-km depth, got stuck for days at only 2.1 km before it was realized that rhyolitic melt had been unexpectedly hit (Elders et al. 2014 ; Rooyakkers et al. 2021 ). Retrospectively, it was then realized that buried magma had been encountered a few other times at the same depth while drilling at various locations inside the caldera (Eichelberger 2019 ). Seismic imaging (Schuler et al. 2015 ) suggests that the rhyolitic melt may have a minimum volume around 0.5 km 3 . Flow testing at IDDP-1, before the well casing collapsed, produced an amazing 15–40 MW e (Axelsson et al. 2013 ), suggesting that two such wells would be enough to replace the entire Krafla power plant including a few tens conventional geothermal wells.

The serendipitous encounter with magma at Krafla demonstrates that (i) shallow magma bodies can escape even the most sophisticated geophysical prospections, a fact that is alarming for many high risk volcanoes; and (ii) drilling to magma can be safe, as any known accidental case, including those at Puna, Hawaii, and Menengai caldera, Kenya, did not lead to uncontrolled events (Eichelberger 2020 ; Rooyakkers et al. 2021 ).

Today, a large scientific consortium is engaging with country governments and industrial partners to define a long-term program named Krafla Magma Testbed, or KMT ( www.kmt.is ). KMT is foreseen to be the first underground magma observatory in the world, in the form of a series of long-standing wells for scientific and industrial exploration, directly opening inside and around the shallow magmatic body and equipped with advanced monitoring instrumentation (Fig.  1 ). Scientific fields opening to next level investigation include the origin of rhyolitic magmas in basaltic environments (and ultimately, the origin of continents), the thermo-fluid dynamics and petro-chemical evolution of magmas, the heat and mass exchange with the plumbing system, surrounding rocks and geothermal system, the rheology and thermo-mechanical properties from deep volcanic rock layers to magma and across the melt-rock interface, the relationships between surface records and deep magma dynamics and interpretation of volcanic unrests, and many others. Decades of speculation that still dominates the scientific debate would be overcome by direct evidence and measurements, and by real-scale experiments on the natural system. Similarly, innovative experimentation and measurements could lead to next-generation geothermal energy production systems exploiting extremely efficient, very high enthalpy near-magma fluids and heat directly released from the cooling margins of the magma body.

The KMT concept. A series of wells are kept open inside and around the shallow magma intrusion at Krafla (2.1 km depth). Temperature- and corrosion-resistant instrumentation is placed inside the wells down to magma. The surface is heavily instrumented with an advanced multi-parametric monitoring network. Dedicated laboratories, offices, and a visitor center complement the infrastructure. Background picture: courtesy of GEORG (Geothermal Research Cluster of Iceland)

KMT is, obviously, an endeavor that cannot be faced by a restricted group or a single country. It requires instead a large, coordinated effort involving many diverse expertise and capacities from scientific to industrial, and disciplines embracing from thermo-fluid dynamics and material science to geology, geochemistry, and geophysics. The challenges are such as to require coordinated investments of order 10 8 dollars (see www.kmt.is ), not little money but still much less than the costs of other large infrastructures mentioned above. Currently (October 2021), the Icelandic government is welcoming partners and dedicating resources; a KMT/ICDP project has been recently approved; national and international projects raised in support of KMT are saturating the costs for the KMT preparatory phase 0, and phase 1 involving the first scientific well reaching to magma is getting closer.

Global Volcano Simulator (GVS)

The atmospheric scientists have been developing for decades general circulation models and a global simulation approach to atmospheric dynamics that they employ daily to produce weather forecasts. While the physics governing volcanic processes is of comparable complexity (e.g., Sparks 2003 ; Segall 2019 ; Papale 2021 ), a large part of the volcanic system is not directly observed (see the KMT description above). That makes a huge difference in terms of quality and accuracy, as atmospheric model predictions can be updated in real time with data coming from below (ground-based), from inside (weather balloons and rockets, radars) and from above (satellites). Similar capacities in volcano science exist for the atmospheric dispersion of volcanic ashes (e.g., Stohl et al. 2011 ; Tanaka and Iguchi 2019 ; Pardini et al. 2020 ), and for other sufficiently slow surface phenomena, such as lava flows (e.g., Wright et al. 2008 ; Vicari et al. 2011 ; Bonny and Wright 2017 ). For the complex dynamics of volcanic unrest and escalation to eruption or return to quiet conditions, which are of utmost relevance for volcano early warning systems and implementation of emergency plans, we are limited to indirect observations through multi-parametric monitoring networks. Those networks provide a rich basis over which the deep volcano dynamics are inferred and the short-term evolutions are forecasted. Still, such forecasts suffer from the lack of a global reference model for their interpretation, often resulting in discordant inferences and projections by different groups of experts.

A reference Global Volcano Simulator would allow many different observations to be placed within a unique, consistent physical framework and integrated holistic dynamic modeling approach. Such a framework should allow a physical representation of the coupled processes and dynamics in multiple domains from the volcanic plumbing system to the surface, including the surrounding rocks and geothermal circulation systems through which signals of deep dynamics are transported to our monitoring networks. Together with the KMT initiative described above and providing ground-truth constraints as well as a unique chance for validation tests, such a global approach to the underground (and surface) volcano dynamics would project volcanology fully into the third millennium, bringing it closer to other scientific fields for which the quantitative revolution started much in advance. The large destination Earth initiative by the European Commission ( https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/destination-earth ) aims at developing a high precision digital model of the Earth to monitor and simulate both natural and man-made phenomena and processes. The initiative provides a long-term perspective which develops largely through the construction of digital twins (Fig.  2 ), that is, digital replicas of natural (physical, biological) or man-made systems. Among the high priority digital twins that are foreseen by the Commission, the one on weather-induced and geophysical extremes ( https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/workshops-reports-elements-digital-twins-weather-induced-and-geophysical-extremes-and-climate ) is expected to provide the conditions for bringing to a next level some of the recent developments in modeling the complex dynamics of volcanic systems and improving the performance of parallel computing in solid Earth (see also the European Centre of Excellence ChEESE: https://cheese-coe.eu ). As a matter of fact, the digital twin concept applied to volcanoes coincides largely with the GVS described here, showing that the times can be mature for such an ambitious undertaking.

Possible scheme for a digital twin of a volcanic system. Models and data concur to scenarios and forecasts. Models are continuously tested and refined, e.g., by adding more or better microphysics. Both data and models are accompanied by quality assessments and certification. Third parties access data and models, as well as visualization tools. While the scheme is general, the cited resources refer to the European landscape

• Big volcano data

Direct observations and global modeling described above are expected to impact deeply volcano science. The fundamental source of information on volcanic processes and dynamics from most volcanoes worldwide will continue to be the multi-parametric remote and on-site instrumental networks collecting data before, during, and after volcanic eruptions. With the development of the digital age, big data and related technologies such as Machine Learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) have exploded in virtually any aspect of science (e.g., Chen et al. 2012 ; Wamba et al. 2015 ; Gorelick et al. 2017 ). AI algorithms can be trained to reproduce some of our capabilities, such as driving a car or writing a meaningful text. What looks more relevant in volcano science, however, is that ML and AI algorithms can be employed to find, hidden within huge sequences of data, meaningful patterns that trained teams of humans may miss in months or years of work. ML is employed already in a variety of research applications related to volcanoes, including automatic classification of seismicity (Masotti et al. 2006 ; Malfante et al. 2018 ; Bueno et al. 2020 ), analysis of infrasound signals (Witsil and Johnson 2020 ), detection from satellite images of eruptions (Corradino et al. 2020 ) or anomalous deformation areas (Anantrasirichai et al. 2018 , 2019 ), establishment of source regions from tephra analysis (Bolton et al. 2020 ; Pignatelli and Piochi 2021 ), identification of changes in eruption behavior (Hajian et al. 2019 ; Watson 2020 ), and volcano early warning analysis (Parra et al. 2017 ).

The fundamental element of ML and AI is algorithm training, which requires huge amounts of data before the trained algorithms can be used to mine other datasets. Modern multi-parametric networks at highly monitored volcanoes, constellations of satellites, etc. produce continuous streams of space–time data daily. Satellite data are organized and accessible through space agencies, with increasing levels of accessibility being provided through large-scale initiatives, such as GEO’s Geohazard Supersites and Natural Laboratories ( https://geo-gsnl.org/ ). However, a similar level of organization is still missing for ground-based data collected at volcanoes worldwide. Relevant attempts to provide free, organized access to ground-based volcano data are ongoing (e.g., Newhall et al. 2017 ; Costa et al. 2019 ; in Japan: Ueda et al. 2019 ; in Europe: Bailo and Sbarra 2017 ; etc.), while large funding agencies such as the European Union ( https://ec.europa.eu/info/research-and-innovation/strategy/strategy-2020-2024/our-digital-future/open-science_en ; https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/turning_fair_into_reality_0.pdf ) increasingly require strict adherence to the principles of open science and FAIR data. Definitely, of all the projections one may make for volcano science in the next decade, the one with the highest likelihood of revealing correct is the burst of big volcano data, or otherwise, volcano science would find itself lagging behind other communities who fully profit of big developments that will largely shape research and support scientific advance in the coming years and decades.

Concluding remarks

The volcanological community has been capable of benefiting from substantial infrastructural developments, for example in relation to satellite missions. Even in such cases, however, volcanologists have taken advantage from missions dedicated to other objectives, such as those related to weather forecasts, climate change, or land evolution. Still, the benefits from a “big science” approach in volcanology appear substantial in terms of mitigated risks and increased security on one side, and potential for efficient, clean, and renewable energy on the other side. In comparison, order of magnitude larger funds dedicated to space exploration, while expanding greatly our fundamental understanding of the Universe, does not seem to bring comparable practical benefits, at least over the short-medium time scale.

Decades of volcano science clearly show that major volcanic eruptions in terms of their size or impacts not only have been big drivers for scientific advance, they also have focused substantial attention by the governments, the media, and the public. However, the momentum gets easily lost, and after an initial promising phase of increased funding opportunities, often volcanoes quickly slip backwards in the priority list. As a volcanological community, we may need to improve our capability to stay on the scene, e.g., by transposing our scientific endeavors into effective narratives which tell of the exciting travel towards unexplored frontiers of our planet Earth, at the same time increasing security and contributing to sustainability and preservation of the delicate equilibria of the planet.

Anantrasirichai N, Biggs J, Albino F, Bull D (2019) The application of convolutional neural networks to detect slow, sustained deformation in InSAR time series. Geophys Res Lett 21:11850–11858

Article   Google Scholar  

Anantrasirichai N, Biggs J, Albino F, Hill P, Bull D (2018) Application of machine learning to classification of volcanic deformation in routinely generated InSAR data. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 123:6592–6606

Google Scholar  

Axelsson G, Egilson T, Gylfadottir SS (2013) Modelling of temperature conditions near the bottom of well IDDP-1 in Krafla. Northeast Iceland Gothermics 49:49–57

Bailo D, Sbarra M (2017) EPOS – European Plate Observing System: applying the VRE4EIC virtual research environment model in the solid Earth science domain. ERCIM News 109:13–14

Blundy J, Afanasyev A, Melnik O, Tattitch B, Sparks RSJ, Utkin I (2021) The economic potential of copper-bearing sub-volcanic brines. Royal Soc Open Sci 8:202192

Bolton MSM, Jensen BJL, Wallace K, Praet N, Fortin D, Kaufman D, De Batist M (2020) Machine learning classifiers for attributing tephra to source volcanoes: an evaluation of methods for Alaska tephras. J Quat Sci 35(1–2):81–92. https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.3170

Bonny E, Wright R (2017) Predicting the end of lava flow-forming eruptions from space. Bull Volcanol 79:52. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-017-1134-8

Bueno A, Zuccarello L, Díaz-Moreno A, Woollam J, Titos M, Benítez C, Álvarez I, Prudencio J, De Angelis S (2020) PICOSS: Python interface for the classification of seismic signals. Comp Geosci 142:104531

Chen H, Chiang RHL, Storey VC (2012) Business intelligence and analytics: from big data to big impact. MIS Q 36(4):1165–1188

Corradino C, Ganci G, Cappello A, Bilotta G, Calvari S, Del Negro C (2020) Recognizing eruptions of Mount Etna through machine learning using multiperspective infrared images. Remote Sens 12:970. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12060970

Costa F, Widiwijayanti C, Nang TZW, Fajiculay E, Espinosa-Ortega T, Newhall C (2019) WOVOdat – The global volcano unrest database aimed at improving eruption forecasts. Disaster Prevent Managem 28:6

Eichelberger J (2019) Magma: a journey to inner space. Eos 100:27–31

Eichelberger J (2020) Distribution and transport of thermal energy within magma-hydrothermal systems. Geosciences 10(6):212

Elders WA, Friðleifsson GÓ, Albertsson A (2014) Drilling into magma and the implications of the Iceland Deep Drilling Project (IDDP) for high-temperature geothermal systems worldwide. Geothermics 49:111–118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geothermics.2013.05.001

Friðleifsson GO, Elders WA (2005) The Iceland Deep Drilling project: a search for deep unconventional geothermal resources. Geothermics 34:269–285. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geothermics.2004.11.004

Gorelick N, Hancher M, Dixon M, Ilyushchenko S, Thau D, Moore R (2017) Google Earth engine: planetary-scale geospatial analysis for everyone. Remote Sens Env 202:18–27

Hajian A, Cannavò F, Greco F, Nunnari G (2019) Classification of Mount Etna (Italy) volcanic activity by machine learning approaches. Ann Geophys 62(2):VO231. https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-8049

Malfante M, Dalla Mura M, Metaxian J-P, Mars JI, Macedo O, Inza A (2018) Machine learning for volcano seismic signals: challenges and perspectives. IEEE Signal Proc Mag 35(2):20–30

Masotti M, Falsaperla S, Langer H, Spampinato S, Campanini R (2006) Application of support vector machine to the classification of volcanic tremor at Etna. Italy Geophys Res Lett 33:L20304. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027441

Newhall CG, Costa F, Ratdomopurbo A, Venezky DY, Widiwijayanti C, Nang Thin Zar Win, Tan K, Fajiculay E (2017) WOVOdat – an online, growing library of worldwide volcanic unrest. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 345:184–199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.08.003

Pallister J, Papale P, Eichelberger J, Newhall C, Mandeville C, Nakada S, Marzocchi W, Loughlin S, Jolly G, Ewert J, Selva J (2019) Volcano observatory best practices (VOBP) workshops – a summary of findings and best-practice recommendations. J Appl Volcanol 8:2. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-019-0082-8

Papale P (2021) Some relevant issues in volcanic hazard forecasts and management of volcanic crises. In: Volcanic hazards, risks, and disasters, volume 2. Elsevier. 1–24 (ISBN: 978–0–12–818082–2)

Pardini F, Corradini S, Costa A, EspostiOngaro T, Merucci L, Neri A, Stelitano D, de VitturiMichieli M (2020) Ensemble-based data assimilation of volcanic ash clouds from satellite observations: applications to the 24 December 2018 Mt. Etna explosive eruption. Atmosphere 11:359. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040359

Parra J, Fuentes O, Anthony E, Kreinovich V (2017) Use of machine learning to analyze and – hopefully – predict volcano activity. Acta Polit Hung 14:3

Pignatelli A, Piochi M (2021) Machine learning applied to rock geochemistry for predictive outcomes: the Neapolitan volcanic history case. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 415:107254

Reinsch T, Dobson P, Asanuma H, Huenges E, Poletto F, Sanjuan B (2017) Utilizing supercritical geothermal systems: a review of past ventures and ongoing research activities. Geotherm Energy 5:16. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40517-017-0075-y

Rooyakkers SM, Stix J, Berlo K, Petrelli M, Sigmundsson F (2021) Eruption risks from covert silicic magma bodies. Geology 49:921–925

Segall P (2019) Magma chambers: what we can, and cannot, learn from volcano geodesy. Phys Eng Sci 377(2139):20180158

Sparks RSJ (2003) Forecasting volcanic eruptions. Earth Planet Sci Lett 210:1–15

Schuler J, Greenfield T, White RS, Roecker SW, Brandsdóttir B, Stock JM, Tarasewicz J, Martens HR, Pugh D (2015) Seismic imaging of the shallow crust beneath the Krafla central volcano, NE Iceland. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 120:7156–7173. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012350

Stohl A, Prata AJ, Eckhardt S, Clarisse L, Durant A, Henne S, Kristiansen NI, Minikin A, Schumann U, Seibert P, Stebel K, Thomas HE, Thorsteinsson T, Tørseth K, Weinzierl B (2011) Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption. Atmos Chem Phys 11:4333–4351. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4333-2011

Tanaka HL, Iguchi M (2019) Numerical simulations of volcanic ash plume dispersal for Sakura-Jima using real-time emission rate estimation. J Disaster Res 14(1):160–172

Tester JW, Anderson BJ, Batchelor AS, Blackwell DD, DiPippo R, Drake EM, Garnish J, Livesay B, Moore MC, Nichols K, Petty S, Toksöz MN, Veatch, Jr RW (2006) The future of geothermal energy in the 21 century impact of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) on the United States. Cambridge: MIT Press (MA).  https://energy.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2006/11/MITEI-The-Future-of-Geothermal-Energy.pdf

Ueda H, Yamada T, Miwa T, Nagai M, Matsuzawa T (2019) Development of a data sharing system for Japan volcanological data network. J Disaster Res 14:571–579

UNISDR (2015) Making development sustainable: the future of disaster risk management. Global assessment report on disaster risk reduction (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland

Vicari A, Ganci G, Behncke B, Cappello A, Neri M, Del Negro C (2011) Near-real-time forecasting of lava flow hazards during the 12–13 January 2011 Etna eruption. Geophys Res Lett 38:L13317. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047545

Wamba SF, Akter S, Edwards A, Chopin G, Gnanzou D (2015) How big data can make big impact: findings from a systematic review and a longitudinal case study. Int J Prod Econ 165:234–246

Watson LM (2020) Using unsupervised machine learning to identify changes in eruptive behavior at Mount Etna, Italy. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 405:107042

Witsil AJC, Johnson JB (2020) Analyzing continuous infrasound from Stromboli volcano, Italy using unsupervised machine learning. Comp Geosci 140:104494

Wright R, Garbeil H, Harris AJL (2008) Using infrared satellite data to drive a thermo-rheological/stochastic lava flow emplacement model: a method for near-real-time volcanic hazard assessment. Geophys Res Lett 35(19):L19307

Download references

Acknowledgements

A perspective paper is obviously the result of many years of interactions with colleagues having similar or different, sometimes even diverging, views on what our science misses mostly or mostly benefits from. To all of these colleagues, we are grateful, as literally each of them had much to teach us. We are also grateful to Mike Poland and Steve Sparks who reviewed the manuscript and improved it through many insightful comments and suggestions. One of us (DG) benefited from a grant by EPOS-IT.

Author information

Authors and affiliations.

Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia, Sezione Di Pisa, Via Cesare Battisti 53, 56125, Pisa, Italy

Paolo Papale & Deepak Garg

You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Paolo Papale .

Additional information

Editorial responsibility: F. Sigmundsson

This paper constitutes part of a topical collection: Looking Backwards and Forwards in Volcanology: A Collection of Perspectives on the Trajectory of a Science.

Rights and permissions

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ .

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Papale, P., Garg, D. Big volcano science: needs and perspectives. Bull Volcanol 84 , 20 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-022-01524-0

Download citation

Received : 14 July 2021

Accepted : 04 January 2022

Published : 12 February 2022

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-022-01524-0

Share this article

Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:

Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.

Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative

• Volcano science
• Krafla Magma Testbed
• Global Volcano Simulator
• Find a journal
• Publish with us
• Track your research

RESEARCH FOCUS: Volcanic eruptions: From ionosphere to the plumbing system

* E-mail: [email protected]

• Standard View
• Open the PDF for in another window
• View This Citation
• Add to Citation Manager
• Permissions
• Search Site

Chiara Maria Petrone; RESEARCH FOCUS: Volcanic eruptions: From ionosphere to the plumbing system. Geology 2018;; 46 (10): 927–928. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/focus102018.1

Download citation file:

• Ris (Zotero)

Volcanic eruptions can have global consequences on the environment, climate and humans. Volcanic plumes, composed of ash and gases, produced during explosive eruptions, can rise many kilometers above the eruptive vent to reach the stratosphere where they can be dispersed globally by the atmospheric circulation. The ash cloud produced by the 1991 Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines, for example, circumnavigated the entire globe in less than a month ( Oppenheimer, 2012 , and references therein).

Large volcanic eruptions inject a substantial amount of sulfur gas and ash particles into the stratosphere ( Fig. 1 ), a large part of which disappear within a few days, but the rest of which are transformed into a mixture of sulfuric acid and water in the form of minute particles. These can stay in the stratosphere for up to one year after the eruption, causing optical effects and scattering solar radiation, which in turn has a cooling effect on the climate ( Robock, 2000 ).

A tropical eruption enhances the pole-to-equator temperature gradient especially in the Northern Hemisphere. When the volcanic aerosol reacts with anthropogenic chlorine, it also creates a chemical effect which contributes to the destruction of stratospheric ozone ( Robock, 2000 ). During the Mount Pinatubo eruption a total of ∼20 million tons of sulfur dioxide were injected in the stratosphere and caused a drop in the air temperature of 0.5 °C during the period 1991–1993 ( Oppenheimer, 2012 ).

Our knowledge of the causal effect between volcanic eruptions and climate cooling ( Robock, 2000 ; Self, 2005 ) has significantly increased since the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo, and we now know that large eruptions in the tropics and at high latitude were responsible for interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past ∼2,500 years ( Sigl et al., 2015 ), which in turn had a global impact on world history (e.g., Oppenheimer, 2015 ; Sigl et al., 2015 ; Luterbacher and Pfister, 2015 ; Pyle, 2017 ).

The long-range consequences of the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora (Indonesia), or those of the 1883 eruption of Krakatau (Indonesia), are described in several publications, both scientific and science-related. Tambora’s eruption was responsible for unusually cold and rainy weather, particularly during the summer of 1816, which is known as the “year without summer.” This had devasting consequences, causing crop failures that induced a severe famine in Europe, Asia, the eastern United States and Canada (e.g., Oppenheimer, 2012 ; Oppenheimer, 2015 ; Luterbacher and Pfister, 2015 ; Pyle, 2017 ).

There is also a claim that the defeat of Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte in the battle of Waterloo (18 June 1815) by the British–Prussian Coalition led by the Duke of Wellington can be partly attributed to the eruption of Tambora. The extremely and unusually wet weather made the battlefield a pool of mud, which delayed the start of the battle, allowing the union of Prussian and Anglo-Dutch forces. As Victor Hugo put it in Les Misérables : “Had it not rained on the night of 17 th /18 th June 1815, the future of Europe would have been different…an unseasonably clouded sky sufficed to bring about the collapse of a World” (cit. in Wheeler and Demarée, 2005 ). This is an unproven claim, but it is possible that an obscure (at the time) volcano might have played a large part in the history of Europe and the human race.

In this issue of Geology , Genge (2018 , p. 835) explores the less well-known interaction of large volcanic eruptions with the ionosphere. Few studies ( de Ragone et al., 2004 , and references therein) have explored the disturbance effect that the sudden injection of energy and momentum, during volcanic eruptions, into the atmosphere can cause on the ionosphere. Any sudden powerful blast (such as a volcanic eruption, strong earthquake or even nuclear blast) can potentially trigger an acoustic gravity wave, which propagates with a frequency longer than a normal acoustic wave ( Ripepe et al., 2016 and reference therein), and is capable of perturbing the atmosphere with different effects depending on the altitude ( de Ragone et al., 2004 ). Here, Genge suggests that electric charges from volcanic plumes can cause electrostatic levitation of volcanic ash, injecting volcanic particles <500 nm in diameter into the ionosphere, disturbing the atmosphere global electric circuit on timescales of 100 s.

The immediate consequence of the injection of charged dust into the ionosphere is a sudden disturbance of climate and, in particular, the short-term formation of volcanic clouds with decreasing cloud cover and precipitation in distal areas, contrasting with increased precipitation in the vicinity of the eruptive plume. The global suppression of cloud formation would increase atmospheric H 2 O content favoring enhanced cloud cover and precipitation in the immediate aftermath of a supervolcano eruption when the ionosphere recovers the normal behavior. Genge explores a new, and somewhat controversial, angle offering a counterintuitive suggestion that a sudden effect on climate (temperature drop, immediate cloud and rain suppression in distal areas, shortly followed by enhanced precipitation, and associated with augmented rain precipitation in the vicinity of the eruptive vent) can occur almost immediately during the eruption and for a few weeks after. As Genge argues, this may offer an explanation for the unusually wet weather in Europe only a month after Tambora’s eruption coeval with the last battle of Emperor Bonaparte.

Abundant rain is common during or immediately after a volcanic eruption and is often associated with devasting and deadly lahars—mudflows produced by heavy rain that remobilize the unconsolidated pyroclastic material on the flank of the volcano. Syn-eruptive lahars have been observed at several volcanoes, including Chaiten (Chile) during the 2008 eruption ( Lara, 2009 ) and Pinatubo associated with the 1991 eruption ( Newhall and Solidum, 2015 ). In both cases, the heavy rain was attributed to the precipitation characteristics of the region. However, the suggestion of Genge’s study that a sudden, very short-term effect on climate might be commonly associated with a very large volcanic eruption might be important when evaluating volcanic hazards at supervolcanoes, and it is an avenue that might be worth exploring. In fact, according to Genge (2018) , plume charge and electrostatic levitation also increase with eruption magnitude.

Ultimately, the potential for climate forcing by volcanic eruptions depends on the size of the volcanic plume and thus the volatile content, composition of the magma, and the ejected volume, which in turn modulates eruption magnitude. Assessing the eruption magnitude and type of the next eruption at a given volcano is one of the current challenges of volcanology. This is not an easy task, even at well-known volcanoes. A multidisciplinary effort is necessary, incorporating data from a variety of observations, starting from the essential and fundamental constant real-time monitoring of a single volcano to the equally essential and fundamental forensic approach, that permits a glimpse into the possible future scenarios of activity by learning from the past eruptive history of the volcano.

The petrology community (i.e., scientists that study formation of the rocks) has achieved a remarkable understanding of the complex plumbing system that fuels a volcano. We now know that beneath a volcano, there is no such a thing as a large pond of magma, but a complex plumbing system where crystals and melt are stored in different pockets and at different levels in a semi-solid state, called crystal mush, with low melt fraction, and that can be remobilized at different but usually short timescales (e.g., Bachmann and Bergantz, 2008 ; Cooper and Kent, 2014 ; Cashman et al., 2017 ). By studying the minerals forming the rocks erupted from a volcano, we are able to understand how and on which sort of timescales the crystal mush is remobilized and magma accumulated before eruption (e.g., Costa et al., 2008 ; Druitt et al., 2012 ; Kilgour et al., 2014 ; Cooper, 2017 ; Petrone et al., 2018 ), which is an important piece of information to evaluate volcanic hazards assessment. We have made substantial progress in our understanding of magmatic processes leading to different types and size of eruptions, but there is still a lot of work to do.

Data & Figures

A moderate Vulcanian eruption at Sakurajima Volcano (Japan) on 22 July 2013.

Affiliations

• Early Publication
• About the Journal
• Geology Science Editors
• Instructions for Authors
• About the Society
• Join the Society
• Publisher Bookstore
• Publisher Homepage
• Contact the Society
• Open Access Policy
• Online ISSN 1943-2682
• ISSN 0091-7613
• Copyright © 2024 Geological Society of America
• How to Subscribe
• Privacy Policy
• For Librarians
• For Industry
• For Society Members
• For Authors
• Terms & Conditions
• 1750 Tysons Boulevard, Suite 1500
• McLean, VA 22102
• Telephone: 1-800-341-1851
• Copyright © 2024 GeoScienceWorld

This Feature Is Available To Subscribers Only

Sign In or Create an Account

Volcanoes: Science and Applications

The Asia Oceania region is home to over 700 volcanoes active during the past 10,000 years, and is host to the largest share of the world’s populations. Volcanic phenomena, the science of volcanology, and the impacts of volcanism on the natural and human environment are at the same time fascinating as they are of imminent societal relevance: Volcanic eruptions and their associated hazards affect over 10% of the world's population and interdisciplinary research is crucially important to improve hazard assessment and communication, monitoring, forecasting, and mitigation. This collection aims to cover contributions across multiple disciplines, and includes studies of volcanic activity from multiple scientific perspectives.  This SC is inspired by the Special Session at AOGS 2018, “ SS09 - Volcanoes: Nature, Influence, Impact ” 

Lead Guest Editor Florian M. Schwandner, NASA Ames Research Center, U.S.A 

Guest Editors Kazuhisa Goto, The University of Tokyo, Japan Eisuke Fujita, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED), Japan J. Gregory Shellnutt, National Taiwan Normal University (NTNU), Taiwan

Analysis of swarm earthquakes around Mt. Agung Bali, Indonesia prior to November 2017 eruption using regional BMKG network

Mt. Agung, located in Karangasem-Bali, Indonesia, had a significant increase of swarm earthquakes from September 2017 until the recent eruption in November 2017. To analyze the seismic swarm and its correlatio...

• View Full Text

The source detection of 28 September 2018 Sulawesi tsunami by using ionospheric GNSS total electron content disturbance

The 28 September 2018 magnitude Mw7.8 Palu, Indonesia earthquake (0.178° S, 119.840° E, depth 13 km) occurred at 10:02 UTC. The major earthquake triggered catastrophic liquefaction, landslides, and a near-fiel...

Processing of volcano infrasound using film sound audio post-production techniques to improve signal detection via array processing

The use of infrasound for the early detection of volcanic events has been shown to be effective over large distances, and unlike visual methods, is not weather dependent. Signals recorded via an infrasound arr...

Sciencing_Icons_Science SCIENCE

Sciencing_icons_biology biology, sciencing_icons_cells cells, sciencing_icons_molecular molecular, sciencing_icons_microorganisms microorganisms, sciencing_icons_genetics genetics, sciencing_icons_human body human body, sciencing_icons_ecology ecology, sciencing_icons_chemistry chemistry, sciencing_icons_atomic &amp; molecular structure atomic & molecular structure, sciencing_icons_bonds bonds, sciencing_icons_reactions reactions, sciencing_icons_stoichiometry stoichiometry, sciencing_icons_solutions solutions, sciencing_icons_acids &amp; bases acids & bases, sciencing_icons_thermodynamics thermodynamics, sciencing_icons_organic chemistry organic chemistry, sciencing_icons_physics physics, sciencing_icons_fundamentals-physics fundamentals, sciencing_icons_electronics electronics, sciencing_icons_waves waves, sciencing_icons_energy energy, sciencing_icons_fluid fluid, sciencing_icons_astronomy astronomy, sciencing_icons_geology geology, sciencing_icons_fundamentals-geology fundamentals, sciencing_icons_minerals &amp; rocks minerals & rocks, sciencing_icons_earth scructure earth structure, sciencing_icons_fossils fossils, sciencing_icons_natural disasters natural disasters, sciencing_icons_nature nature, sciencing_icons_ecosystems ecosystems, sciencing_icons_environment environment, sciencing_icons_insects insects, sciencing_icons_plants &amp; mushrooms plants & mushrooms, sciencing_icons_animals animals, sciencing_icons_math math, sciencing_icons_arithmetic arithmetic, sciencing_icons_addition &amp; subtraction addition & subtraction, sciencing_icons_multiplication &amp; division multiplication & division, sciencing_icons_decimals decimals, sciencing_icons_fractions fractions, sciencing_icons_conversions conversions, sciencing_icons_algebra algebra, sciencing_icons_working with units working with units, sciencing_icons_equations &amp; expressions equations & expressions, sciencing_icons_ratios &amp; proportions ratios & proportions, sciencing_icons_inequalities inequalities, sciencing_icons_exponents &amp; logarithms exponents & logarithms, sciencing_icons_factorization factorization, sciencing_icons_functions functions, sciencing_icons_linear equations linear equations, sciencing_icons_graphs graphs, sciencing_icons_quadratics quadratics, sciencing_icons_polynomials polynomials, sciencing_icons_geometry geometry, sciencing_icons_fundamentals-geometry fundamentals, sciencing_icons_cartesian cartesian, sciencing_icons_circles circles, sciencing_icons_solids solids, sciencing_icons_trigonometry trigonometry, sciencing_icons_probability-statistics probability & statistics, sciencing_icons_mean-median-mode mean/median/mode, sciencing_icons_independent-dependent variables independent/dependent variables, sciencing_icons_deviation deviation, sciencing_icons_correlation correlation, sciencing_icons_sampling sampling, sciencing_icons_distributions distributions, sciencing_icons_probability probability, sciencing_icons_calculus calculus, sciencing_icons_differentiation-integration differentiation/integration, sciencing_icons_application application, sciencing_icons_projects projects, sciencing_icons_news news.

• Share Tweet Email Print
• Home ⋅
• Science Fair Project Ideas for Kids, Middle & High School Students ⋅

Science Projects on Hypothesis for Volcanoes

How to Add a Variable to a Volcano Science Project

Volcanoes have captured the imaginations of science-fair participants for generations. The fun of simulating oozing lava and creating volcanic-like explosions is undeniable. Volcanoes play an important role in the topographical and meteorological patterns of Earth’s past, present and future. The complex science of volcanoes lends itself to a variety of science-project hypotheses.

Amateur Volcanologist

Volcanologists study both active and dormant volcanoes, how they formed, and their current and historic activity. According to the University of Oregon, most of the work of the volcanologist happens in the laboratory, not at the edge of a red-hot volcano writhing with molten lava. In fact, investigating data and coming up with hypotheses is one of the most important jobs of a volcanologist.

Hazardous Volcanoes

Volcanic eruptions have many hazards, from lava flows to spewing ash. Determining where the most hazardous volcanoes are located in the world is a good project hypothesis. First, students would need to determine the main hazards of a volcano and consider factors such as human life, plant and animal life, air quality and damage to property. Data would need to be collected on volcanoes in different parts of the world and students would need to form conclusions based on the same criteria for each volcano.

Effects on Earth System

Throughout history, volcanoes have had a profound effect on Earth’s systems. Volcanoes have changed the topography of the world and even destroyed civilizations. The effects on Earth’s systems by volcanoes that are currently active are more subtle, but they can still have an impact. Choosing an active volcano and hypothesizing about its impact on the environment around it would make an interesting project. Students can consider the impact to air quality, plant life and even the weather.

Chemistry and Volcanoes

A visually pleasing volcano project involves simulating an eruption. The intensity of volcanic eruptions varies widely and students can hypothesize which type of chemical reactions could cause the biggest eruptions. For example, a project could hypothesize that yeast combined with hydrogen peroxide would create a bigger explosion than vinegar combined with baking soda. Students, with adult supervision, can mix different components to demonstrate the power of volcanic eruptions.

Related Articles

Interesting science projects, solar system science fair projects for second grade, 5th grade projects on volcanoes, high school investigatory projects, 7th-grade science fair projects with sodas, the history of volcanology, what kind of volcanoes don't erupt anymore, similarities between the different types of volcanoes, animal adaptations around volcanoes, different topics for investigatory projects, how to build a model tornado, what happens after volcanoes erupt, facts on volcanology, mauna loa facts for kids, what are the results of a volcano eruption, about minor & major landforms, what will the first cities on mars look like, plants & animals around volcanoes, ib chemistry lab ideas.

• Glencoe-McGraw Hill: Earth Science; “Ranking Hazardous Volcanoes”

About the Author

Beth Griesmer’s writing career started at a small weekly newspaper in Georgetown, Texas, in 1990. Her work has appeared in the “Austin-American Statesman,” “Inkwell” literary magazine and on numerous websites. Griesmer teaches middle school language arts and science in Austin, Texas.

Photo Credits

NA/AbleStock.com/Getty Images

Find Your Next Great Science Fair Project! GO

Search this site

Around the o menu.

Around the O

Iceland’s volcano eruptions may last decades, researchers find.

Iceland’s ongoing volcanic eruptions may continue on and off for years to decades, threatening the country’s most densely populated region and vital infrastructure, researchers predict from local earthquake and geochemical data. 

The eruptions on the Reykjanes Peninsula have forced authorities to declare a state of emergency, with a series of eight eruptions having occurred since 2021 . This southwestern region is home to 70 percent of the country’s population, its only international airport, and several geothermal power plants that supply hot water and electricity. The most recent eruption in May through June triggered the evacuation of residents and visitors of the Blue Lagoon geothermal spa , a popular tourist attraction, for the third time in more than two months.

Although Iceland sees regular eruptions because it sits above a volcanic hot spot, the Reykjanes Peninsula has been dormant for 800 years. Its last volcanic era continued over centuries however, prompting scientists to predict the renewed volcanism to be the start of a long episode. 

Under an hour’s drive from the island’s capital city Reykjavík, the eruptions pose considerable risks for economic disruption, and they leave evacuated communities uncertain of a possible return.

An international team of scientists has been watching the volcanoes over the past three years. Analyzing seismic tomography imaging and the composition of lava samples, they’ve uncovered parts of the geological processes behind the new volcanic era. They predict the region may have to prepare for recurring eruptions lasting years to decades and possibly centuries. 

The researchers report their findings in a paper published June 26 in the journal Terra Nova . The project included collaborations from the University of Oregon, Uppsala University in Sweden, University of Iceland, Czech Academy of Sciences and University of California, San Diego. The work follows an earlier Nature Communications study of the initial Reykjanes eruptions in 2021.

(Top Photo) Scientists collecting volcanic rock during the July 2023 Fagradalsfjall eruption. (Bottom Photos) The progression of the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption. 

Almost all of Iceland’s island is built from lava, said Ilya Bindeman , a volcanologist and earth sciences professor at the UO . The country sits on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the tectonic plate boundary that causes North America and Eurasia to push further apart. The drifting of these plates can spark volcanic eruptions when hot rock from the earth’s mantle — the middle and largest layer of the planet — melts and rises to the surface.

Although scientists know the origin of Reykjanes Peninsula’s current eruptions is plate movement, the kind of magma storage and plumbing systems that feed them are unidentified, Bindeman said. The peninsula consists of eight volcanically active sites, so understanding whether there is one shared magma source or multiple independent ones and their depth can help predict the duration and impact of these eruptions.

Using geochemical and seismic data, the researchers investigated whether the magma of the initial eruptions from one volcano in the peninsula from 2021 to 2023 came from the same source as the magma in the recent eruptions of a different volcano to the west. 

Bindeman specializes in isotopic analysis , which can help identify the “fingerprint” of magma. (See Focus on Equipment and Methodology below.) The unique combination of trace elements can help differentiate one magma source from another.

Lava from the January 2024 Sundhnúkur eruption reaching the outskirts of the town of Grindavik. Photographed in April 2024.

Analyzing samples of lava rock from two different volcanoes in the peninsula, their similar fingerprints implied a shared magma storage zone below the peninsula. Imaging of earth’s interior based on local earthquakes also suggested the existence of a reservoir about 5.5 to 7.5 miles in the earth’s crust, the shallowest layer.

Although this marks the beginning of potentially persistent volcanic episodes in Iceland, the researchers can’t precisely predict yet how long the episodes and the gaps between each will last.

“Nature is never regular,” Bindeman said. “We don't know how long and how frequently it will continue for the next ten or even hundred years. A pattern will emerge, but nature always has exceptions and irregularities.”

Discussions are continuing on plans to safely drill into the volcanic sites to glean insights into the geological processes driving the eruptions. 

Because the volcanic activity is less volatile and explosive than eruptions in other countries , it provides a rare opportunity for scientists to approach fissures actively erupting lava, Bindeman said. He called it a “natural laboratory” both astonishing and chilling.

“When you witness a volcanic eruption, you can feel that these are the massive forces of nature, and you yourself are very small,” Bindeman said. “These events are ordinary from the geological scale, but from the human scale, they can be devastating.”

— Story by Leila Okahata — Volcano photos and videos courtesy of Valentin Troll, Uppsala University — Lab photos and videos by Charlie Litchfield and Nicolas Walcott — Layout design by Tim Beltran and Paul Kozik

Focus on Equipment and Methodology

Scientists can measure the abundance of isotopes, elements with the same chemical property but different masses, in magma to identify its "fingerprint". There are three different isotopes of oxygen, for example.

“In the air we breathe, there's a mixture of these oxygen isotopes and we don't feel the difference,” Bindeman said. “Their differences are usually not important for chemical reactions but are important to recognize as their relative abundances in magma can differentiate one magma source from another.”

Using an apparatus called a laser fluorination line , scientists can extract and measure the oxygen isotopes in minerals. The unique abundance of oxygen isotopes can serve as identification between different magma sources. 

X- and C-Shaped Bubbles Are Behaving Bizarrely in the Atmosphere

Scientists can’t quite figure them out.

• The Earth’s ionosphere protects us from harmful UV radiation, but despite the helpful protection, this slice of Earth’s atmosphere is incredibly complex.
• NASA’s Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) mission recently captured X- and C-shaped plasma bubbles that could interfere with communications.
• Although these shapes have been seen before, GOLD captured them during “quiet times” and in immense proximity to each other—two things that scientists did not expect.

That’s why, in 2013, NASA gave the go-ahead for the Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) mission. Launched into geosynchronous orbit (GEO) by an Ariane 5 rocket in 2018, the two-channel, far-ultraviolet-imaging spectrograph was a technological hitchhiker aboard the commercial satellite SES-14 (SES is a Luxembourgish satellite telecommunications network provider). Its core mission was to provide “unprecedented imaging” of the upper atmosphere as well as being the first mission to focus strictly on the “weather of the thermosphere-ionosphere,” according to the University of Central Florida , one of several universities to work on the project.

In the six years since, GOLD has delivered on that mission, and in a new paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics , scientists reveal how this cost-effective satellite appendage has upended our understanding of the ionosphere by revealing the strange behavior of X- and C-shaped plasma bubbles during unexpected, low-activity “quiet times.”

“Earlier reports of merging were only during geomagnetically disturbed conditions," University of Colorado’s Fazlul Laskar, who was the lead author of the study, said in a NASA press statement . “It is an unexpected feature during geomagnetic quiet conditions.”

These shapes have been seen in this slice of the atmosphere before, but usually during some moment of intense disturbance, whether on the ground (erupting volcanoes) or in space (solar storms). However, because GOLD can track these bubbles over time thanks to its position in GEO, it’s found that these shapes also form during relatively quiet times with little turbulence, something the scientists did not expect.

These shapes form near Earth’s magnetic equator as charged particles move upward and outward, predictably along magnetic field lines, and the dense bands north and south of the equator are known as crests. However, sometimes these bubbles, which are usually straight, form curved C-shape or reverse C-shape lines, likely due to terrestrial winds; they can even form an X-shape when the lower atmosphere pulls the plasma downward.

“The X is odd because it implies that there are far more localized driving factors,” NASA’s Jeffrey Klenzing said in a press statement. “This is expected during the extreme events, but seeing it during ‘quiet time’ suggests that the lower atmosphere activity is significantly driving the ionospheric structure.”

GOLD has also captured a rare phenomenon of two shapes—and C and a reverse-C—less than some 400 miles apart, and experts say that two of these shapes so close together “had never been thought of, never been imagined.” GOLD has only captured this arrangement twice, and scientists expect that it’s likely due to some sort of strong turbulence, such as a wind shear or even a tornado.

Understanding these shapes, as well as the overall complexity of the ionosphere, will help improve communication technologies while potentially avoiding disruption during major solar storms or other disturbances. The ionosphere is the protective shield that helps life to flourish on Earth, and now that life is finally beginning to solve many of its lingering mysteries.

Darren lives in Portland, has a cat, and writes/edits about sci-fi and how our world works. You can find his previous stuff at Gizmodo and Paste if you look hard enough. 

.css-cuqpxl:before{padding-right:0.3125rem;content:'//';display:inline;} Our Planet .css-xtujxj:before{padding-left:0.3125rem;content:'//';display:inline;}

Uh-Oh, the Mangroves Are Rapidly Migrating North

The Best Rain Barrels for Water Conservation

Hawaiian Volcano Opens New Category of Eruption

The World Suffered 26 Excess Hot Days in Past Year

How Fracking Wastewater Could Be a Climate Ally

There Are 5,251 Holes Lining California's Coast

Uncovering the Origin Story of the ‘Tree of Life'

Past CO2 Rise Can't Even Compare to Climate Change

Ancient Collision May Have Created Plate Tectonics

Meet the Taam Ja': The World's Largest Blue Hole

Huge Discovery Could Ease World's Helium Woes

NASA spacecraft catches volcano plumes blasting into space

When NASA 's Juno orbiter swooped close to a Jupiter moon , it saw a pair of volcanic plumes spurting material into space , something the robotic spacecraft hadn't captured before. 

The plumes rise high above Io, Jupiter's third-largest moon . It's the most volcanically active world in our solar system, where astronomers believe hundreds of volcanoes spew fountains that reach dozens of miles high. The spacecraft took the snapshot in February , its final closeup tour of Io at a range of 2,400 miles away. 

This last hurrah didn't disappoint. Scientists are just beginning to pore over the close encounter's data, revealing new information about the moon's volcanic processes, said Scott Bolton, Juno's principal investigator at the Southwest Research Institute in a statement .

Andrea Luck, based in Scotland, processed the raw data to enhance its clarity (shown above). The plumes, visible along Io's limb, are either blasting out of two vents from one enormous volcano or two separate-but-snug volcanoes. 

Juno has been orbiting Jupiter for more than seven years. During its primary mission, the spacecraft collected data on the gas giant's atmosphere and interior. Among its discoveries was a finding that the planet's atmospheric weather layer extends way beyond its clouds. 

After completing 35 orbits, the spacecraft transitioned to studying the entire system around Jupiter, including its dust rings and many moons. This extended mission will continue for another year or until the spacecraft dies. Juno will eventually burn up in Jupiter's atmosphere as its trajectory around the planet erodes. Relax, though: NASA says the orbiter is not at risk of crashing into and contaminating Jupiter's moons, some of which may be habitable worlds . 

The spacecraft has an instrument, dubbed JunoCam , designed to take closeup photos of Jupiter and engage the public. The science team invites amateur astronomers to process the camera's raw data and crowdsources what to focus on next. 

JunoCam isn't the only instrument giving scientists fresh insights into Io's volcanoes. The Jovian Infrared Auroral Mapper, or JIRAM, has also been observing the moon in infrared light. Researchers just published a new paper based on the Italian instrument's findings in the journal Nature Communications Earth and Environment .

Galileo Galilei discovered Io in 1610, but it took many centuries before NASA's Voyager 1 spacecraft first spotted a volcanic eruption on it. With the help of Juno, scientists are beginning to understand the mechanisms driving that activity. 

• Another world in our solar system has lapping seas, scientists say
• Venus is 900 degrees. That's surprisingly not why it's bone-dry.
• Saturn apparently has 145 moons. So eat it, Jupiter.
• The strange new worlds scientists have discovered this year
• NASA spacecraft saw something incredible near Jupiter's Great Red Spot

The whole surface of Io , about the size of Earth's moon , is covered in molten silicate lava lakes. These lakes are contained in caldera-like features — large basins formed when volcanoes erupt and collapse, said Alessandro Mura, the paper's lead author, in a statement.

The researchers think the moon teems with vast lakes of lava, wherein magma rises and recedes. The lava crust breaks against the lake's steep walls, forming a ring similar to what happens in Hawaiian lava lakes. The tall barriers may be what's preventing the magma from spilling all over Io's surface.

But there's another idea that can't be ruled out: Magma could be welling up in the middle of the lake, spreading out, then forming a crust that sinks along the lake's rim, exposing lava.

Topics NASA

Elisha Sauers writes about space for Mashable, taking deep dives into NASA's moon and Mars missions , chatting up astronauts and history-making discoverers , and jetting above the clouds . Through 17 years of reporting, she's covered a variety of topics, including health, business, and government, with a penchant for public records requests. She previously worked for The Virginian-Pilot in Norfolk, Virginia, and The Capital in Annapolis, Maryland. Her work has earned numerous state awards, including the Virginia Press Association's top honor, Best in Show , and national recognition for narrative storytelling. For each year she has covered space, Sauers has won National Headliner Awards , including first place for her Sex in Space series. Send space tips and story ideas to [email protected] or text 443-684-2489. Follow her on X at @elishasauers .

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

• View all journals
• Explore content
• About the journal
• Publish with us
• Sign up for alerts
• 17 August 2022

Huge volcanic eruptions: time to prepare

• Michael Cassidy 0 &
• Lara Mani 1

Michael Cassidy is an associate professor of volcanology at the University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.

You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

Lara Mani is a research associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, UK.

Tonga Geological Services staff making observations of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai volcano. Credit: Tonga Geological Services/ZUMA/Alamy

The massive eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai volcano this January in Tonga, in the south Pacific Ocean, was the volcanic equivalent of a ‘near miss’ asteroid whizzing by the Earth. The eruption was the largest since Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines blew in 1991, and the biggest explosion ever recorded by instruments.

Access options

Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals

Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription

24,99 € / 30 days

cancel any time

Subscribe to this journal

Receive 51 print issues and online access

185,98 € per year

only 3,65 € per issue

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Nature 608 , 469-471 (2022)

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-02177-x

Mani, L., Tzachor, A. & Cole, P. Nature Commun. 12 , 4756 (2021).

Article   PubMed   Google Scholar  

Lin, J. et al. Clim. Past 18 , 485–506 (2021).

Article   Google Scholar  

Newhall, C., Self, S. & Robock, A. Geosphere 14 , 572–603 (2018).

Trilling, D. E. et al. Astron. J. 154 , 170 (2017).

Rougier, J., Sparks, R. S. J., Cashman, K. V. & Brown, S. K. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 482 , 621–629 (2018).

Aubry, T. J. et al. Nature Commun. 12 , 4708 (2021).

Aubry, T. J. et al. Bull. Volcanol. 84 , 58 (2022).

Mahalingam, A. et al. Impacts of Severe Natural Catastrophes on Financial Markets (Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, 2018).

Google Scholar  

Deligne, N. I., Coles, S. G. & Sparks, R. S. J. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 115 , B06203 (2010).

Giordano, G. & Caricchi, L. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 50 , 231–259 (2022).

Costa, F. et al. Disaster Prev. Manag. 28 , 738–751 (2019).

Pritchard, M. E. et al. J. Appl. Volcanol. 7 , 5 (2018).

Ramsey, M. S., Harris, A. J. L. & Watson, I. M. Bull. Volcanol. 84 , 6 (2021).

Fuglestvedt, J. S., Samset, B. H. & Shine, K. P. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41 , 8627–8635 (2014).

Download references

Reprints and permissions

Supplementary Information

• Further reading

Competing Interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Related Articles

• Volcanology
• Scientific community

James Clerk Maxwell’s ode to bubble blowing

News & Views 18 JUN 24

The biologist who built a Faraday cage for a crab

News & Views 09 APR 24

Submerged volcano’s eruption was the biggest since the last ice age

Research Highlight 29 FEB 24

How PhD students and other academics are fighting the mental-health crisis in science

News Feature 09 JUL 24

Regulate to protect fragile Antarctic ecosystems from growing tourism

Correspondence 09 JUL 24

How can I break into industry if my CV keeps disappearing into a black hole?

Career Feature 08 JUL 24

Scientists relieved by far-right defeat in French election — but they still face uncertainty

News 08 JUL 24

COVID tsar Patrick Vallance appointed UK science minister

Senior Research Associates x 3 – Bioinformatician Team

The Genomics and Bioinformatics Core (GBC) within the Institute of Metabolic Science – Metabolic Research Laboratories at the Clinical School, Univers

Cambridge, Cambridgeshire

University of Cambridge

Al Medical Engineering at School of Biomedical Engineering

Tsinghua BME offers faculty positions in the emerging research direction of AI Medical Engineering

Beijing, China

Tsinghua University

Shanghai Jiao Tong University Global Recruitment

Interested applicants can send CV to the relevant department/school.

Shanghai, China

Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Faculty Positions in School of Engineering, Westlake University

The School of Engineering (SOE) at Westlake University is seeking to fill multiple tenured or tenure-track faculty positions in all ranks.

Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China

Westlake University

Postdoctoral Fellow – Thoracic and Head & Neck Medical Oncology

Postdoctoral Fellow – Thoracic and Head &Neck Medical Oncology – KRAS-mutant non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)

Houston, Texas (US)

The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Quick links

• Explore articles by subject
• Guide to authors
• Editorial policies

• Research and Innovation
• The Abstract
• Audio Abstract Podcast
• Centennial Campus
• Campus Life
• Faculty and Staff
• Awards and Honors
• HR and Finance
• Resilient Pack
• We Are the Wolfpack
• Service and Community
• Red Chair Chats
• News Releases
• In the News
• NC State Experts on 2024 Elections
• NC State Experts Available on Climate
• NC State Experts on Roe v. Wade
• NC State Supply Chain Experts
• Experts on COVID-19
• Hurricane Experts
• About NC State News
• Faculty Support
• Training Program

Life Underground Suited New Dinosaur Fine

For Immediate Release

The age of dinosaurs wasn’t conducted solely above ground. A newly discovered ancestor of Thescelosaurus shows evidence that these animals spent at least part of their time in underground burrows. The new species contributes to a fuller understanding of life during the mid-Cretaceous – both above and below ground.

The new dinosaur, Fona [/Foat’NAH/] herzogae lived 99 million years ago in what is now Utah. At that time, the area was a large floodplain ecosystem sandwiched between the shores of a massive inland ocean to the east and active volcanoes and mountains to the west. It was a warm, wet, muddy environment with numerous rivers running through it.

Paleontologists from North Carolina State University and the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences unearthed the fossil – and other specimens from the same species – in the Mussentuchit Member of the Cedar Mountain Formation, beginning in 2013. The preservation of these fossils, along with some distinguishing features, alerted them to the possibility of burrowing.

Fona was a small-bodied, plant-eating dinosaur about the size of a large dog with a simple body plan. It lacks the bells and whistles that characterize its highly ornamented relatives such as horned dinosaurs, armored dinosaurs, and crested dinosaurs. But that doesn’t mean Fona was boring.

Fona shares several anatomical features with animals known for digging or burrowing, such as large bicep muscles, strong muscle attachment points on the hips and legs, fused bones along the pelvis – likely to help with stability while digging – and hindlimbs that are proportionally larger than the forelimbs. But that isn’t the only evidence that this animal spent time underground.

“The bias in the fossil record is toward bigger animals, primarily because in floodplain environments like the Mussentuchit, small bones on the surface will often scatter, rot away, or become scavenged before burial and fossilization,” says Haviv Avrahami, Ph.D. student at NC State and digital technician for the new Dueling Dinosaurs program at the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences. Avrahami is first author of the paper describing the work.

“But Fona is often found complete, with many of its bones preserved in the original death pose, chest down with splayed forelimbs, and in exceptionally good condition,” Avrahami says. “If it had already been underground in a burrow before death, it would have made this type of preservation more likely.”

Lindsay Zanno, associate research professor at NC State, head of paleontology at the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences and corresponding author of the work, agrees.

“ Fona skeletons are way more common in this area than we would predict for a small animal with fragile bones,” Zanno says. “The best explanation for why we find so many of them, and recover them in small bundles of multiple individuals, is that they were living at least part of the time underground. Essentially, Fona did the hard work for us, by burying itself all over this area.”

Although the researchers have yet to identify the subterranean burrows of Fona , the tunnels and chamber of its closest relative, Oryctodromeus , have been found in Idaho and Montana. These finds support the idea that Fona also used burrows.

The genus name Fona comes from the ancestral creation story of the Chamorro people, who are the indigenous populations of Guam and the Pacific Mariana Islands. Fo’na and Pontan were brother and sister explorers who discovered the island and became the land and sky. The species name honors Lisa Herzog, the paleontology operations manager at the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences, for her invaluable contributions and dedication to the field of paleontology.

“I wanted to honor the indigenous mythology of Guam, which is where my Chamorro ancestors are from,” Avrahami says. “In the myth, Fo’na became part of the land when she died, and from her body sprung forth new life, which to me, ties into fossilization, beauty, and creation. Fona was most likely covered in a downy coat of colorful feathers. The species name is for Lisa Herzog, who has been integral to all this work and discovered one of the most exceptional Fona specimens of several individuals preserved together in what was likely a burrow.”

Fona is also a distant relative of another famous North Carolina fossil: Willo, a Thescelosaurus neglectus specimen currently housed at the museum and also thought to have adaptations for a semifossorial – or partially underground – lifestyle, research that was published late in 2023 by Zanno and former NC State postdoctoral researcher David Button.

“ T. neglectus was at the tail end of this lineage – Fona is its ancestor from about 35 million years prior,” Avrahami says.

The researchers believe Fona is key to expanding our understanding of Cretaceous ecosystems.

“ Fona gives us insight into the third dimension an animal can occupy by moving underground,” says Avrahami. “It adds to the richness of the fossil record and expands the known diversity of small-bodied herbivores, which remain poorly understood despite being incredibly integral components of Cretaceous ecosystems.”

“People tend to have a myopic view of dinosaurs that hasn’t kept up with the science,” Zanno says. “We now know that dinosaur diversity ran the gamut from tiny arboreal gliders and nocturnal hunters, to sloth-like grazers, and yes, even subterranean shelterers.”

The work appears in The Anatomical Record . Peter Makovicky of the University of Minnesota and Ryan Tucker of Stellenbosch University also contributed to the work.

Note to editors: An abstract follows.

“A New Semi-Fossorial Thescelosaurine Dinosaur from The Cenomanian-age Mussentuchit member of the Cedar Mountain Formation, Utah”

DOI : 10.1002/ar.25505

Authors: Haviv Avrahami, Lindsay Zanno; North Carolina State University and the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences; Peter Makovicky, University of Minnesota; Ryan Tucker, Stellenbosch University Published: July 9, 2024 in The Anatomical Record

Abstract: Thescelosaurines are a group of early diverging, ornithischian dinosaurs notable for their conservative bauplans and mosaic of primitive features. Although abundant within the latest Cretaceous ecosystems of North America, their record is poor to absent in earlier assemblages, leaving a large gap in our understanding of their evolution, origins, and ecological roles. Here we report a new small bodied thescelosaurine— Fona herzogae gen. et sp. nov.—from the Mussentuchit Member of the Cedar Mountain Formation, Utah, USA. Fona herzogae is represented by multiple individuals, representing one of the most comprehensive skeletal assemblages of a small bodied, early diverging ornithischian described from North America to date. Phylogenetic analysis recovers Fona as the earliest member of Thescelosaurinae, minimally containing Oryctodromeus , and all three species of Thescelosaurus , revealing the clade was well-established in North America by as early as the Cenomanian, and distinct from, yet continental cohabitants with, their sister clade, Orodrominae. To date, orodromines and thescelosaurines have not been found together within a single North American ecosystem, suggesting different habitat preferences or competitive exclusion. Osteological observations reveal extensive intraspecific variation across cranial and postcranial elements, and a number of anatomical similarities with Oryctodromeus , suggesting a shared semi-fossorial lifestyle.

• Bulletin Board
• Exploration
• Innovative Outcomes
• college of sciences
• news releases
• paleontology
• research news

More From NC State News

Open Space Has Increased in the Triangle, But There’s Still Work To Be Done 

Why Do Things Look Darker When They’re Wet? 

Some Birds ‘Win’ and Some ‘Lose’ With Sea Level Rise, Expert Says 

Related Topics

• Application Security
• Cybersecurity Careers
• Cloud Security
• Cyberattacks & Data Breaches
• Cybersecurity Analytics
• Cybersecurity Operations
• Data Privacy
• Endpoint Security
• ICS/OT Security
• Identity & Access Mgmt Security
• Insider Threats
• Mobile Security
• Physical Security
• Remote Workforce
• Threat Intelligence
• Vulnerabilities & Threats
• Middle East & Africa
• Upcoming Events
• Newsletters
• Whitepapers
• Partner Perspectives:
• > Microsoft

Ransomware Eruption: Novel Locker Malware Flows From ‘Volcano Demon' Ransomware Eruption: Novel Locker Malware Flows From ‘Volcano Demon'

Attackers clear logs before exploitation and use "no caller ID" numbers to negotiate ransoms, complicating detection and forensics efforts.

July 3, 2024

A double-extortion ransomware player has exploded onto the scene with several attacks in two weeks, wielding innovative locker malware and a slew of evasion tactics for covering its tracks and making it difficult for security experts to investigate.

Tracked as "Volcano Demon" by the researchers at Halcyon who discovered it, the newly discovered adversary is characterized by never-before-seen locker malware, dubbed LukaLocker, that encrypts victim files with the .nba file extension, according to a blog post published this week.

The attacker's evasion tactics include the installation of limited victim logging and monitoring solutions prior to exploitation and the use of "threatening" phone calls from "No Caller ID" numbers to extort or negotiate a ransom.  

"Logs were cleared prior to exploitation and in both cases, a full forensic evaluation was not possible due to their success in covering their tracks," the Halcyon Research Team wrote in the post. Volcano Demon also has no leak site for posting data it steals during its attacks, though it does use double extortion as a tactic, the team said.

In its attacks, Volcano Demon used common administrative credentials harvested from the networks of its victims to load a Linux version of LukaLocker, then successfully locked both Windows workstations and servers. Attackers also exfiltrated data from the network to its own command-and-control server (C2) prior to ransomware deployment so it could use double extortion.

A ransom note instructs victims to contact attackers through the qTox messaging software and then wait for technical support to call them back, making it difficult to track the communication between the parties, according to Halcyon.

Remnants of Conti?

Halycon researchers first discovered a sample of what it now calls LukaLocker on June 15, according to the post. "The ransomware is an x64 PE binary written and compiled using C++," the team wrote. "LukaLocker ransomware employs API obfuscation and dynamic API resolution to conceal its malicious functionalities — evading detection, analysis, and reverse engineering."

Upon execution, unless "--sd-killer-off" is specified, LukaLocker immediately terminates some security and monitoring services present on the network similar to and possibly copied from the prolific but now-defunct Conti ransomware , according to the post. These services include various antivirus and endpoint protection; backup and recovery tools; database software by Microsoft, IBM, and Oracle, among others; Microsoft Exchange Server; virtualization software; and remote access and monitoring tools. It also terminates other processes, including Web browsers, Microsoft Office, and cloud and remote access software, such as TeamViewer.

The locker uses the Chacha8 cipher for bulk data encryption, randomly generating the Chacha8 key and nonce through the Elliptic-curve Diffie-Hellman (ECDH) key agreement algorithm over Curve25519. Files can either be fully encrypted or at varying percentages, including 50%, 20%, or 10%.

Vigilance Required

Because of Volcano Demon's extensive evasion capabilities , it was difficult for the Halcyon team to do a full forensic analysis of the attacks; moreover, the researchers did not reveal the type of organizations targeted by the threat actor. Halcyon did, however, manage to identify various indicators of compromise (IoC) of the attackers, some of which have been uploaded to Virus Total.

These IoCs include a Trojan, Protector.exe, and the Locker.exe encryptor. A Linux cryptor file called Linux locker/bin and command-line scripts that precede encryption, Reboot.bat, also are hallmarks of an attack by the novel ransomware actor.

With ransomware remaining a prevalent and disruptive threat to global organizations despite various law-enforcement crackdowns that have taken out leading cybercriminal gangs , vigiliance is required among those in charge of defending networks. Given that Volcano Demon uses administrative passwords to organizations networks as an initial means of exploitation, defense tactics such as multifactor authentication (MFA) and employee training to identify phishing campaigns that put credentials in attackers' hands can help avoid compromise.

About the Author(s)

Elizabeth Montalbano, Contributing Writer

Elizabeth Montalbano is a freelance writer, journalist, and therapeutic writing mentor with more than 25 years of professional experience. Her areas of expertise include technology, business, and culture. Elizabeth previously lived and worked as a full-time journalist in Phoenix, San Francisco, and New York City; she currently resides in a village on the southwest coast of Portugal. In her free time, she enjoys surfing, hiking with her dogs, traveling, playing music, yoga, and cooking.

You May Also Like

Black Hat USA - Aug 3-8 - The Premier Technical Cybersecurity Conference - Learn More

Black Hat Europe - December 9-12 - Learn More

SecTor - Canada's IT Security Conference Oct 22-24 - Learn More

Editor's Choice

2024 InformationWeek US IT Salary Report

Elastic named a Leader in The Forrester Wave™: Security Analytics Platforms, Q4 2022

2023 Global Threat Report

EMA: AI at your fingertips: How Elastic AI Assistant simplifies cybersecurity

Cloud & Hybrid Security Tooling Report

5 Critical Controls for World-Class OT Cybersecurity

Tracking the Untrackable: Taking a Proactive Approach to Emerging Risks

How Cyber Threat Intelligence Empowers the C-Suite

A Year in Review of Zero-Days Exploited In-the-Wild in 2023

A Short Primer on Container Scanning